Most countries now aim to achieve ‘sustainable development’, not just maximum GDP growth. But what does this mean? How can it be measured? And how does it relate to the concept of human well-being and to ‘happiness economics’?
• We present a new St...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
• Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns
• In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels
• Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances
• Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013
• Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014
• Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away
• Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend.
Oil production is likely to be delayed until 2017, at least
• Reduction in donor assistance to weigh on outlook
• UGX is likely to be vulnerable to a reversal of portfolio inflows...
• Large-scale oil production now looks likely to be deferred until 2017, at least
• Plans for a pipeline versus a refinery must still be agreed, with little consensus on capacity
• BoU easing to reinvigorate growth, but the growth pace is expected...
• Despite IMF downgrades to global growth forecasts, real GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa should average around 5% in 2012. Africa continues to present a diverse picture: initially investor concerns centred on the impact of the slowdown in Europe; they no...
Top 3 data/events
• South Korea/Taiwan – Reversal in capital inflows to Taiwan and Korea in April
• India – WPI to print below 7% for a third month in succession
• United States – Inflation remains well-behaved
• Tight monetary po...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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