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  • 25-Apr – Banxico, BanRep dovish in their own ways - Updated Thu April 24, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • EM bonds – Impact of ELMI+ rebalancing should be limited • Japan – Retail sales likely continued to accelerate m/m in March • Taiwan – Leading index likely to show stronger growth in Q1 • Market focus • We expect Ba...

  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • 17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1 - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y...

  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • 15-Apr – Draghi puts EUR strength in the crosshairs - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth momentum likely softened in Q1 • Euro area – CPI final print likely to match the preliminary data • US – Yellen to clarify view on long-run inflation, growth and FFTR • Market focus • Draghi’s IMF comments c...

  • 14-Apr – AXJ FX revisions amid divergent volatility - Updated Sun April 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Inflation likely moved up in March • Germany – ZEW may show investors shrugging off uncertainties • US – Not necessarily a spring rebound for core retail sales • Market focus • Weaker China data and reviving bond i...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • 10-Apr – AXJ currency rally supported by yield-seeking - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Feb IIP set to disappoint at -0.4% y/y • GBP-CAD – Lowering the stop-loss on our short position • US – FOMC minutes downplay the hawkish ‘dots’ • Market focus • The stabilisation in UST yields and fall in US rate vo...

  • 09-Apr – China – More stimulus needed - Updated Tue April 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate was likely 6.0% in March • Malaysia – External demand likely supported IP in February • UK – BoE may stay on hold while MPC digests flurry of positive data • Market focus • Policy is shifting ...

  • 08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates steady - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • 04-Apr – March US NFPs: Gradual thawing - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • INR – RBI’s Rajan signals INR not far from ‘fair value’ • Taiwan – Export gains; inflation accelerates • Germany – Cooling industrial production data reflect stability • Market focus • We see March payrolls below the 20...

  • 03-Apr – Indonesia continues to outperform EMs - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports likely rose sharply on a y/y basis in February • Philippines – Inflation likely remained on an uptrend • Germany – February factory orders expected to have risen, but only just • Market focus • Indonesia ...

  • Singapore – MAS to maintain the status quo - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    We expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy stance in April • Current inflation levels are benign, although upside risks to core inflation remain • SGD NEER to strengthen ahead of MPS; enter SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y butterfly, SGD IRS 3Y/1...

  • 02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely c...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • 31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in in...

  • 28-Mar – Time to embrace the sales-tax hike - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Downward price pressures pose a conundrum for the ECB • US – February core PCE inflation to remain stable at 1.1% y/y • Colombia – We reiterate our Overweight FX rating on the COP • Market focus • Tankan survey ...



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Trade idea

17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.