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  • 10-May – The rise of the doves - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Modest recovery likely continued in April • India – Slower CPI increases expected • United States – Fed speakers are unlikely to surprise the market • Market focus • BoK’s surprise decision to cut 25bps is the start...

  • South Korea – BoK joins the ‘even more easing’ party - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    • BoK unexpectedly cut its base rate by 25bps to 2.50%; we now see 50bps of more cuts in 2013 • The post-meeting statement cited external conditions, low inflation and mixed domestic demand • BoK will consider the effects of the supplementary budg...

  • 30-Apr – Waiting patiently for Mrs Watanabe - Updated Mon April 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – April PMI has the potential to disappoint • Indonesia – Expect moderating inflation, not deflation, in April • South Korea – Low inflation and a rebound in exports look likely • Market focus • We expect some degree ...

  • 29-Apr – Monetary policy or monetary politics? - Updated Sun April 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely contracted for a third consecutive month • Taiwan – Q1 GDP likely to show expansion for the third straight quarter • Thailand – Stronger THB likely to have cut the current account surplus • Market foc...

  • 10-Apr – The return of the great yen carry trade - Updated Tue April 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – March unemployment rate likely remained steady at 5.4% • Indonesia – BI expected to keep interest rates unchanged in April • South Korea – BoK is likely to cut policy rate based on fundamentals • Market focus • ...

  • 09 Apr – Korean markets are in the spotlight - Updated Mon April 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/ events • China – March likely to have seen another sizeable trade surplus • Indonesia – DMO targets IDR 60tn of treasury issuance in Q2 • US – FOMC minutes to take a back seat given recent data • Market focus • Tensions on the Korea...

  • 28-Mar – Come on, BoJ - Updated Wed March 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Fitch upgrades to investment grade • South Korea – We expect a modest rebound in February IP • Thailand – Current account likely deteriorated further • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to front-load open-ended...

  • 13-Mar – CNY needs a better fix – not a wider band - Updated Tue March 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Policy rate to remain on hold for at least H1-2013 • South Korea – BoK is likely to keep the policy rate on hold • EU – Call for compromise to conclude European Semester first phase • Market focus • China’s N...

  • 01-Mar-13 – Tail risks return to Europe as Italy dithers - Updated Thu February 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – The CNY rises to number 13 in most-used currency list • South Korea – A modest uptick in headline inflation is expected • US – Economy is improving, but the sequester is a key risk • Market focus • A new election l...

  • 28-Feb-13 – On the road in the US - Updated Wed February 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI likely remained in expansionary territory • Indonesia – Inflation likely slowed in February on a m/m basis • South Korea – Modest export recovery expected • Market focus • We conducted a client ro...

  • 27-Feb-13 – Opportunities in cheap AXJ gamma - Updated Tue February 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – FY14 budget is expected to focus on fiscal consolidation • South Korea – IP likely contracted on a m/m basis • Japan – Industrial production likely showed m/m growth again • Market focus • Italian election results,...

  • 13-Feb-13 – Trading like it was 1995? - Updated Tue February 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – BoK is likely to be on hold in February • Japan – BoJ likely to stay on hold; we expect mild Q4 GDP growth • India – January WPI probably dipped below 7% • Market focus • We compare the ‘governing dynamics’ of...

  • 08-Feb-13 – What Korean corporates think - Updated Thu February 7, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Lower GDP estimate ahead of easing supply supports GoISecs • Chile – Low January CPI should temper BCCh’s hawkish tone • United States – Trade deficit likely narrowed after November’s surge • Market focus • Korean ...

  • 31-Jan-13 – CPI inflation to bottom out in Asia - Updated Wed January 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI likely still in expansionary territory • South Korea – Expecting a rebound in trade flows • UK – Investors to scrutinise surveys, hoping for growth to return • Market focus • January CPI inflation...

  • 29-Jan-13 – Implications of a weaker yen for Asia - Updated Mon January 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely consolidated in December after recent strength • Euro area – Survey data likely to indicate an improving trend • United States – Q4 economic expansion likely slowed, FOMC on hold • Market focus • JP...

  • 23-Jan-13 – Revised AXJ FX forecasts, weightings - Updated Tue January 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – We expect no changes to the policy rate • South Korea – We envisage a mild recovery in Q4 GDP growth • South Africa – SARB MPC seen on hold, CPI to be closely watched • Market focus • We lower modestly our US...

  • 10-Jan-13 – USD slides in CNY forwards - Updated Wed January 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CPI inflation set to pick up • South Korea – BoK is likely to cut rates in February, not January • India – Sharp drop in November IIP expected • Market focus • CNY upside surprises at the PBoC fix have been building...

  • 10-Dec-12 – Turning ‘Twist’ into a super-sized QE3 - Updated Sun December 9, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI rate likely to remain unchanged in December • Philippines – Favourable base effect to support Q4 export growth • Malaysia – Industrial production likely slowed in October • Market focus • The US Federal Reser...

  • 29-Nov-2012 – Increasing allocations to Asian bonds - Updated Wed November 28, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Q2-FY13 GDP to reflect further slowdown • South Korea – Continued improvement in industrial production • Thailand – October data to highlight downside risks to growth • Market focus • Real money funds remain Overwei...

  • 28-Nov-12 – Greek respite, for now - Updated Tue November 27, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • S. Korea – The impact of additional FX regulation is likely to be limited • Euro area – Sentiment likely to remain subdued • Brazil – BCB shifting to neutral • Market focus • Greece will get funding assuming parliaments app...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.