• Agriculture GDP is still the main cause of headline GDP growth volatility
• Subsidy reform is a central policy objective, and work should continue in 2014
• We are constructive on Morocco’s medium- to long-term outlook...
• The country’s hydrocarbon potential is massive and probably even higher than currently assessed
• But the security situation represents a risk to the oil-capacity expansion timeline
• Improving the operating environment should be a priori...
• Turkey’s growth has not decoupled from external imbalances
• We see a marginal improvement to 4% real GDP growth in 2014
• Any upside potential will be capped by tightening policy over the course of the year...
• Political transition success remains the key to higher GDP growth
• 2014 should bring some resolution to this process
• Official creditors and the international community should remain supportive...
• GDP drivers are still going to be affected by a tense regional situation
• Reform of the subsidy system, particularly in the energy sector, is crucial
• Lebanon’ financial system remains the backbone of the economy...
• 2014 growth should mildly suffer from a high base effect
• The economy’s dependence on the hydrocarbon economy has increased
• Long-term resolution of the domestic feuds is key to the non-oil economy ...
• Growth should benefit from a return to full hydrocarbon potential in 2014
• But given its wealth and GDP/capita, Algeria is arguably underperforming
• Political agenda will be driven by presidential election and the possible return of Bouteflika...
New Zealand‟s economy, shocked by another natural disaster, grew 0.2% q/q and 2.5% y/y in Q2, in line with our forecasts. The worst drought in 30 years severely impaired dairy output in Q1 and also affected Q2 – agriculture contracted 6.4% q/q just ...
Recent data shows that Taiwan‟s economy is starting to regain momentum. We expect economic growth to return to the 3-4% range in H2-2013, after averaging only 2.1% in H1. The latest signs are encouraging. The recent uptick in key macro indicators fr...
• The summer tourism season was even worse than expected
• But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy
• Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds
• We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment
• The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months
• Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now
• The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics
• Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again
• Refinery output capacity should rise by 38%
• Political developments in Nigeria increase near-term uncertainty
• With politics taking centre-stage earlier than expected, there are upside risks to outlined spending plans
• Any threat to the PDP’s majority in the National Assembly could poten...
• Angola remains oil dependant but non-oil sector now represents more than half of GDP
• Infrastructure bottlenecks and lack of skilled labour are key constraints for non-oil growth
• Greater diversification is necessary to preserve social stabil...
• With QE tapering still expected eventually, credit fundamentals remain in focus
• In SSA, current account deterioration often masks a step-up in investment
• Today’s capital goods imports will allow for tomorrow’s exports
• Africa was the only ...
• A new cabinet to provide fresh impetus to government action
• Progress on living standards has been disappointing
• Many structural issues need to be addressed to achieve higher growth...
• Despite a likely setback to tourism, we expect Kenya’s economy to be largely resilient
• Even given weaker-than-expected headline GDP in Q2, many other sectors outperformed
• Fiscal revenue in Q1-FY14 was above the budget target
• Higher headli...
• Strong growth momentum to remain
• Higher twin deficits on the back of higher investment
• Political uncertainty has increased...
• Growth has picked up, but remains lower than in many SSA countries
• The fiscal outlook is deteriorating due to the weight of fuel subsidies
• The national refinery suffers from government arrears...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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