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  • Zambia – Focus on the presidential by-election - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Presidential by-election on 20 January will be a key near-term focus • Discussions on mining tax royalties and VAT refunds are likely to be deferred until after the election • ZMW may come under pressure as yields decline ...

  • Uganda – Oil impact is mixed - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Uganda will benefit from a lower import bill, but some oil exploration may be deferred • Government spending likely to increase ahead of 2016 elections • BoU seen tightening interest policy in 2015 in response to pressure on the UGX ...

  • Tanzania – Key elections in 2015 - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Constitutional referendum, elections make politics a key focus in 2015 • Donors postpone budget support; budget deficit likely to widen • USD-TZS upside pressure seen, despite capital-account liberalisation ...

  • South Africa – Some reprieve - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth remains weak – lower price of imported oil to provide some reprieve • Politics will remain key to labour relations and of wage negotiations • Debt ratios to peak at a high level, signalling ongoing vulnerability ...

  • Sierra Leone – Ebola to constrain growth - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Ramped-up infrastructure spending is expected to boost growth in 2015 • SOE debt is rising rapidly • We still expect the authorities to devalue the SLL. ...

  • Senegal – Ongoing fiscal consolidation - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth is likely to pick up but remain modest • Fiscal consolidation should remain a key objective • Senegal benefits from lower commodity prices ...

  • Nigeria – Elections and oil fears - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Weak oil earnings contribute to Nigeria’s structural challenges; more reform is anticipated • Fiscal policy in 2015 plans to adopt a scenario-based approach to accommodate the weaker oil price • Elections still represent a key risk; the NGN is l...

  • Namibia – Vulnerable to external conditions - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Infrastructure and mining-sector investment will help to drive growth of 4.9% in 2015 • Downside risks remain from lower commodity prices and a weaker ZAR • Following a clear election victory for SWAPO in December 2014, the political outlook rem...

  • Mozambique – Fiscal consolidation needed - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth outlook remains strong • Some fiscal consolidation is expected, but the deficit is likely to remain high • Frelimo wins the election, but loses ground ...

  • Mauritius – Growth is accelerating - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Diversification of trading partners and tourist arrivals away from Europe is supporting growth • Inflationary pressures will likely remain subdued in 2015 with lower commodity prices • The BoM will likely look to start tightening interest rates ...

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