• Agriculture GDP is still the main cause of headline GDP growth volatility
• Subsidy reform is a central policy objective, and work should continue in 2014
• We are constructive on Morocco’s medium- to long-term outlook...
• The country’s hydrocarbon potential is massive and probably even higher than currently assessed
• But the security situation represents a risk to the oil-capacity expansion timeline
• Improving the operating environment should be a priori...
• Turkey’s growth has not decoupled from external imbalances
• We see a marginal improvement to 4% real GDP growth in 2014
• Any upside potential will be capped by tightening policy over the course of the year...
• Political transition success remains the key to higher GDP growth
• 2014 should bring some resolution to this process
• Official creditors and the international community should remain supportive...
• GDP drivers are still going to be affected by a tense regional situation
• Reform of the subsidy system, particularly in the energy sector, is crucial
• Lebanon’ financial system remains the backbone of the economy...
• 2014 growth should mildly suffer from a high base effect
• The economy’s dependence on the hydrocarbon economy has increased
• Long-term resolution of the domestic feuds is key to the non-oil economy ...
• Growth should benefit from a return to full hydrocarbon potential in 2014
• But given its wealth and GDP/capita, Algeria is arguably underperforming
• Political agenda will be driven by presidential election and the possible return of Bouteflika...
New Zealand‟s economy, shocked by another natural disaster, grew 0.2% q/q and 2.5% y/y in Q2, in line with our forecasts. The worst drought in 30 years severely impaired dairy output in Q1 and also affected Q2 – agriculture contracted 6.4% q/q just ...
Recent data shows that Taiwan‟s economy is starting to regain momentum. We expect economic growth to return to the 3-4% range in H2-2013, after averaging only 2.1% in H1. The latest signs are encouraging. The recent uptick in key macro indicators fr...
• The summer tourism season was even worse than expected
• But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy
• Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds
If this is a public computer please consider checking this box carefully.
Please access our research via your Straight2Bank account
This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
About Standard Chartered
Group investor relations
Group media centre
WB media centre
Copyright © 2014 Standard Chartered Bank