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  • 31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in in...

  • 27-Feb – The hidden North Asia risk story - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely fell on adverse base effect and external factors • India – Yet another quarter of weak economic activity • US – Durable goods orders: More than the weather • Market focus • Authorities’ desire to di...

  • 28-Nov – Adjusting our USD-Latam forecasts - Updated Wed November 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Q2-FY14 GDP expected to edge up • South Korea – IP likely rebounded on export growth • Euro area – Persistent low inflation ahead of December’s ECB meeting • Market focus • Broad USD strength in H1-2014 is a core th...

  • 28-Oct – India: RBI – Sequencing the exit - Updated Sun October 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Rising retail sales and hiring indicate growing confidence • South Korea – Industrial production likely contracted in September • US – Pending homes sales likely slowed, but IP probably increased • Market focus • Hi...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 29-May – Crunch time for the INR - Updated Tue May 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Strong Q1 performance likely led by domestic growth • South Korea – IP likely showed a technical rebound in April • Euro area – Surveys likely to show improving sentiment • Market focus • We forecast India’s ...

  • 27-Feb-13 – Opportunities in cheap AXJ gamma - Updated Tue February 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – FY14 budget is expected to focus on fiscal consolidation • South Korea – IP likely contracted on a m/m basis • Japan – Industrial production likely showed m/m growth again • Market focus • Italian election results,...

  • 13-Feb-13 – Trading like it was 1995? - Updated Tue February 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – BoK is likely to be on hold in February • Japan – BoJ likely to stay on hold; we expect mild Q4 GDP growth • India – January WPI probably dipped below 7% • Market focus • We compare the ‘governing dynamics’ of...

  • 10-Jan-13 – USD slides in CNY forwards - Updated Wed January 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CPI inflation set to pick up • South Korea – BoK is likely to cut rates in February, not January • India – Sharp drop in November IIP expected • Market focus • CNY upside surprises at the PBoC fix have been building...

  • 29-Nov-2012 – Increasing allocations to Asian bonds - Updated Wed November 28, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Q2-FY13 GDP to reflect further slowdown • South Korea – Continued improvement in industrial production • Thailand – October data to highlight downside risks to growth • Market focus • Real money funds remain Overwei...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 30-Aug-12 – Increasing growth risks for India - Updated Wed August 29, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Industrial production probably continued to fall • Thailand – Current account is likely to shift back into deficit • Japan – Deflation to pressure BoJ to expand APP further • Market focus • Weak Q1-FY13 GDP g...

  • 08-Aug-12 – Asian resilience on bond inflows - Updated Tue August 7, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – We expect a very weak IIP print for June • Indonesia – BI rate to remain unchanged at 5.75% • South Korea – BoK will likely hold the base rate at 3.0% • Market focus • We expect Asian exports to remain subdued nea...

  • 30-Jul-12 – RBI to hold firm - Updated Sun July 29, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Slow but steady growth in industrial production • Taiwan – Q2 preliminary GDP data to show economy reached a trough • Euro area – Focus is on politicians for more detail about ‘big plan’ • Market focus • RBI ...

  • 30-May-12 – Another weak quarter for India - Updated Tue May 29, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • South Korea – Industrial production likely rose 1.0% m/m in April • Philippines – Resilient Q1 GDP • Brazil – COPOM in cutting mode, for now Market focus • India’s Q4-FY12 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0%, the weakest si...



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31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to...

Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in inflation is likely to keep the RBI on hold on...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.