To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...
The following is a joint research report from the Equity and Regional Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content.
• Unprecedented approach to systemic credit r...
• The global economy is recovering, despite the weakness in the West. It will be difficult for the US to achieve more than 2% GDP growth this year; fiscal tightening and policy uncertainty will cast shadows on the turnaround in the housing and energ...
Top 3 data/events
• Japan – Q1 GDP likely improved, but not by much
• Singapore – Q1 GDP likely to be revised up from earlier estimate
• US – FOMC minutes to shine a light on the chances for further QE
• The sell-off in IDR governm...
Key events and data
• Indonesia – BI to keep interest rates on hold
• Philippines – Export growth to remain positive
• South Korea – BoK to keep interest rates unchanged
• China’s economy shows tentative signs of recovery, but dow...
Key events and data
• India – Improved core-sector activity to support February IIP
• Indonesia – BI expected to keep its policy rate unchanged
• Philippines – Export growth likely remained positive in February
• Q2 brings transit...
• Despite market optimism since the start of 2012, the economies of the West remain fragile due to poor fundamentals, a lack of policy options and fickle confidence. Structural trends in emerging markets will be a positive offset. Meanwhile, domesti...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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