In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1).
PCE inflation is set to undershoot Fed target of 2% till 2015; downside risks prevail on soft commodity prices
• The Fed views the current low inflation prints as ‘temporary’; its focus is on the labour market
• Low inflation is unlikely to worry ...
We expect the Fed to reduce its QE programme by USD 10bn in September, but this is still a close call
• Soft data is likely over the summer, but recent strong job gains are enough for the Fed to proceed
• QE will likely end in Q2-2014; the Fed is ...
Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile
• We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date
• The underlying momentum is softe...
Moderating headwinds and ongoing private-sector strength should lead to an acceleration in H2
• Robust business investment, the housing recovery and slower household deleveraging should underpin medium-term growth
• We see the Fed continuing with...
Our scorecard suggests the US has now largely recovered from the 2008 crisis; only a ‘lost half-decade’
• Japan and the UK are behind; Spain still has a long way to go
• We focus on progress in balance sheet adjustment and the effectiveness of mon...
Growth has slowed in 2013 as the housing boom cools
• A stronger US economy points to renewed strength soon
• Stable politics and low corporate tax rates are attracting business...
Housing and investment point to an accelerating recovery
• The fiscal drag could lead to a hiccup in Q2; we see a rebound in H2
• The shale gas boom is a major boost to competitiveness and growth...
Private investment and household spending were solid in Q1; we raise our Q1 growth forecast to 3.2%
• Recent data point to a soft Q2 as fiscal headwinds intensify; we still expect activity to accelerate in H2
• Talk of tapering Fed bond-buying i...
• Canada’s economy has slowed and we revise lower our 2013 GDP forecast
• The housing boom, partly fuelled by Asian money, has halted; we do not expect a bust
• Prospects for oil depend on expanding pipeline capacity
• We push back the next BoC r...
• We expect an uneventful 19-20 March FOMC meeting: QE is set to remain at USD 85bn/month
• We think the statement will acknowledge the improved data, but retain an overall dovish tone
• We think the FOMC is unlikely to adopt quantitative threshol...
Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before Congress on 26-27 February
• Bernanke, a strong dove, is widely expected to defend the benefits of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy
• Although we do not expect any change in policy, his speech could provi...
The FOMC minutes show that ‘several’ members called to vary the pace of QE based on economic data
• The core FOMC remains dovish, rejecting any move before a ‘substantial’ improvement
• We see QE continuing at the current pace until year-end, but...
As Spain moves closer to an EU programme, the ECB’s ‘unlimited’ bond-buying plan is under scrutiny
• Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) will boost liquidity, so sterilisation should not be a constraint
• The ECB will insist on tough conditiona...
We still do not expect QE3, barring a blow-up in Europe or a failure to resolve the fiscal cliff
• Operation Twist is likely to be extended again in December as a precaution
• Policy guidance for exceptionally low rates may be pushed out to mid-...
Fragile West, resilient East...
We expect the Fed to extend Operation Twist at the 20 June FOMC meeting
• QE is in reserve in case growth slows more or deflation threatens
• UK is set to do more QE as well as credit easing
• BoJ needs to target QE better by buying longer maturi...
We expect an extension of Operation Twist, but the threshold for QE3 has not been crossed
• Growth is not slow enough and core inflation is not low enough
• We remain neutral duration on UST ahead of the FOMC meeting
• Extending Operation Twist i...
• China data expected to show inflation and growth moderating in May
• South Korea and Australia likely to leave interest rates on hold
• We expect rate cuts in Uganda and Kenya
• European Central Bank could leave a window open for future action...
• DM debt has yet to peak and countries face a very tough adjustment
• Ultra-low official rates will continue for a long time, helping with sustainability
• Deliberate ‘inflating out of debt’ is unlikely, but expect inflation to creep up longer te...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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