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  • Taming the Gini: Inequality in perspective - Updated Wed July 16, 2014

    • Inequality is rising within most countries, though the data may exaggerate the increase • Inequality between countries is falling and the numbers in absolute poverty have declined significantly • New technology is favouring high-skilled workers ...

  • Global trade unbundled - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • Trade is set to accelerate, but patterns will change • Faster GDP growth in Europe and the US will boost world trade, after a weak performance in 2012-13. • We believe the trade-GDP growth ratio can return to the 1.3-1.5 range. • Recent agree...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • United States – Low inflation is a wild card - Updated Thu July 11, 2013

    PCE inflation is set to undershoot Fed target of 2% till 2015; downside risks prevail on soft commodity prices • The Fed views the current low inflation prints as ‘temporary’; its focus is on the labour market • Low inflation is unlikely to worry ...

  • United States – Tapering looming, yields to rise more - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    We expect the Fed to reduce its QE programme by USD 10bn in September, but this is still a close call • Soft data is likely over the summer, but recent strong job gains are enough for the Fed to proceed • QE will likely end in Q2-2014; the Fed is ...

  • United States – Fed likely to emphasise gradualism - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile • We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date • The underlying momentum is softe...

  • United States – Set for faster growth in H2 - Updated Fri May 24, 2013

    Moderating headwinds and ongoing private-sector strength should lead to an acceleration in H2 • Robust business investment, the housing recovery and slower household deleveraging should underpin medium-term growth • We see the Fed continuing with...

  • Fixing the developed countries – US leads the way - Updated Thu May 23, 2013

    Our scorecard suggests the US has now largely recovered from the 2008 crisis; only a ‘lost half-decade’ • Japan and the UK are behind; Spain still has a long way to go • We focus on progress in balance sheet adjustment and the effectiveness of mon...

  • United States – Set for faster growth - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Housing and investment point to an accelerating recovery • The fiscal drag could lead to a hiccup in Q2; we see a rebound in H2 • The shale gas boom is a major boost to competitiveness and growth...

  • Canada – Healthy resource economy - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Growth has slowed in 2013 as the housing boom cools • A stronger US economy points to renewed strength soon • Stable politics and low corporate tax rates are attracting business...

  • United States – The ‘spring swoon’ strikes again - Updated Tue April 9, 2013

    Private investment and household spending were solid in Q1; we raise our Q1 growth forecast to 3.2% • Recent data point to a soft Q2 as fiscal headwinds intensify; we still expect activity to accelerate in H2 • Talk of tapering Fed bond-buying i...

  • Canada – Slow momentum to keep rates low - Updated Wed April 3, 2013

    • Canada’s economy has slowed and we revise lower our 2013 GDP forecast • The housing boom, partly fuelled by Asian money, has halted; we do not expect a bust • Prospects for oil depend on expanding pipeline capacity • We push back the next BoC r...

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Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.