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  • Risks and opportunities 2015 - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    • We analyse seven risks and seven opportunities in detail, exploring potential triggers as well as economic and market implications. • We also asked our research heads to pick the three biggest risks and three most likely opportunities and find th...

  • Taming the Gini: Inequality in perspective - Updated Wed July 16, 2014

    • Inequality is rising within most countries, though the data may exaggerate the increase • Inequality between countries is falling and the numbers in absolute poverty have declined significantly • New technology is favouring high-skilled workers ...

  • Global trade unbundled - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • Trade is set to accelerate, but patterns will change • Faster GDP growth in Europe and the US will boost world trade, after a weak performance in 2012-13. • We believe the trade-GDP growth ratio can return to the 1.3-1.5 range. • Recent agree...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • United States – Low inflation is a wild card - Updated Thu July 11, 2013

    PCE inflation is set to undershoot Fed target of 2% till 2015; downside risks prevail on soft commodity prices • The Fed views the current low inflation prints as ‘temporary’; its focus is on the labour market • Low inflation is unlikely to worry ...

  • United States – Tapering looming, yields to rise more - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    We expect the Fed to reduce its QE programme by USD 10bn in September, but this is still a close call • Soft data is likely over the summer, but recent strong job gains are enough for the Fed to proceed • QE will likely end in Q2-2014; the Fed is ...

  • United States – Fed likely to emphasise gradualism - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile • We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date • The underlying momentum is softe...



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