• We analyse seven risks and seven opportunities in detail, exploring potential triggers as well as economic and market implications.
• We also asked our research heads to pick the three biggest risks and three most likely opportunities and find th...
• Inequality is rising within most countries, though the data may exaggerate the increase
• Inequality between countries is falling and the numbers in absolute poverty have declined significantly
• New technology is favouring high-skilled workers ...
• Trade is set to accelerate, but patterns will change
• Faster GDP growth in Europe and the US will boost world trade, after a weak performance in 2012-13.
• We believe the trade-GDP growth ratio can return to the 1.3-1.5 range.
• Recent agree...
In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1).
PCE inflation is set to undershoot Fed target of 2% till 2015; downside risks prevail on soft commodity prices
• The Fed views the current low inflation prints as ‘temporary’; its focus is on the labour market
• Low inflation is unlikely to worry ...
We expect the Fed to reduce its QE programme by USD 10bn in September, but this is still a close call
• Soft data is likely over the summer, but recent strong job gains are enough for the Fed to proceed
• QE will likely end in Q2-2014; the Fed is ...
Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile
• We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date
• The underlying momentum is softe...
Moderating headwinds and ongoing private-sector strength should lead to an acceleration in H2
• Robust business investment, the housing recovery and slower household deleveraging should underpin medium-term growth
• We see the Fed continuing with...
Our scorecard suggests the US has now largely recovered from the 2008 crisis; only a ‘lost half-decade’
• Japan and the UK are behind; Spain still has a long way to go
• We focus on progress in balance sheet adjustment and the effectiveness of mon...
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Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.
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