• Inequality is rising within most countries, though the data may exaggerate the increase
• Inequality between countries is falling and the numbers in absolute poverty have declined significantly
• New technology is favouring high-skilled workers ...
• Trade is set to accelerate, but patterns will change
• Faster GDP growth in Europe and the US will boost world trade, after a weak performance in 2012-13.
• We believe the trade-GDP growth ratio can return to the 1.3-1.5 range.
• Recent agree...
In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1).
PCE inflation is set to undershoot Fed target of 2% till 2015; downside risks prevail on soft commodity prices
• The Fed views the current low inflation prints as ‘temporary’; its focus is on the labour market
• Low inflation is unlikely to worry ...
We expect the Fed to reduce its QE programme by USD 10bn in September, but this is still a close call
• Soft data is likely over the summer, but recent strong job gains are enough for the Fed to proceed
• QE will likely end in Q2-2014; the Fed is ...
Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile
• We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date
• The underlying momentum is softe...
Moderating headwinds and ongoing private-sector strength should lead to an acceleration in H2
• Robust business investment, the housing recovery and slower household deleveraging should underpin medium-term growth
• We see the Fed continuing with...
Our scorecard suggests the US has now largely recovered from the 2008 crisis; only a ‘lost half-decade’
• Japan and the UK are behind; Spain still has a long way to go
• We focus on progress in balance sheet adjustment and the effectiveness of mon...
Housing and investment point to an accelerating recovery
• The fiscal drag could lead to a hiccup in Q2; we see a rebound in H2
• The shale gas boom is a major boost to competitiveness and growth...
Growth has slowed in 2013 as the housing boom cools
• A stronger US economy points to renewed strength soon
• Stable politics and low corporate tax rates are attracting business...
Private investment and household spending were solid in Q1; we raise our Q1 growth forecast to 3.2%
• Recent data point to a soft Q2 as fiscal headwinds intensify; we still expect activity to accelerate in H2
• Talk of tapering Fed bond-buying i...
• Canada’s economy has slowed and we revise lower our 2013 GDP forecast
• The housing boom, partly fuelled by Asian money, has halted; we do not expect a bust
• Prospects for oil depend on expanding pipeline capacity
• We push back the next BoC r...
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Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.
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