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  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...

  • 28-Jun – Enjoy it while it lasts - Updated Thu June 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI is on a weakening trend • Japan – Q2 Tankan survey is likely to show continued improvement • NZD – Revised NZD-USD forecasts • Market focus • EM local markets are likely to consolidate near-ter...

  • Signalling more pain for EM near-term - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain • The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows • In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...

  • 04-Jun – ECB on hold as activity claws its way back - Updated Mon June 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q1 GDP growth was likely below trend at 0.5% q/q • Philippines – BSP expected to keep policy rate on hold, cut SDA rate • Uganda – We close our trade amid deteriorating sentiment onshore • Market focus • Euro-a...

  • South Africa – Why we still like rates and not the rand - Updated Thu May 23, 2013

    • We expect the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold today; we see a 30-40% chance of a cut • A 50bps cut would not change our market view: Overweight ZAR rates, Underweight ZAR FX • We stay Underweight on FX as risks from the mining sector and the...

  • 20-May – African monetary policy paths diverge - Updated Sun May 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation likely edged higher year-on-year in April • Australia – May minutes might provide insight into further moves • UK – Near-term price pressures probably remained elevated • Market focus • BoG to hike it...

  • Africa Focus - Sound growth, fiscal challenges - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend. ...

  • Ghana – Ghana raises fuel prices - Updated Mon February 18, 2013

    • Ghana announces substantial cuts to domestic fuel subsidies • The move follows a 2012 fiscal deficit of 12.1% and Fitch’s revision of Ghana’s rating outlook to negative • Further fiscal reforms are needed to reassure investors • We update our U...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.