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  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...

  • 28-Jun – Enjoy it while it lasts - Updated Thu June 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI is on a weakening trend • Japan – Q2 Tankan survey is likely to show continued improvement • NZD – Revised NZD-USD forecasts • Market focus • EM local markets are likely to consolidate near-ter...

  • Signalling more pain for EM near-term - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain • The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows • In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...

  • 04-Jun – ECB on hold as activity claws its way back - Updated Mon June 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q1 GDP growth was likely below trend at 0.5% q/q • Philippines – BSP expected to keep policy rate on hold, cut SDA rate • Uganda – We close our trade amid deteriorating sentiment onshore • Market focus • Euro-a...

  • South Africa – Why we still like rates and not the rand - Updated Thu May 23, 2013

    • We expect the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold today; we see a 30-40% chance of a cut • A 50bps cut would not change our market view: Overweight ZAR rates, Underweight ZAR FX • We stay Underweight on FX as risks from the mining sector and the...

  • 20-May – African monetary policy paths diverge - Updated Sun May 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation likely edged higher year-on-year in April • Australia – May minutes might provide insight into further moves • UK – Near-term price pressures probably remained elevated • Market focus • BoG to hike it...

  • Africa Focus - Sound growth, fiscal challenges - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend. ...

  • Ghana – Ghana raises fuel prices - Updated Mon February 18, 2013

    • Ghana announces substantial cuts to domestic fuel subsidies • The move follows a 2012 fiscal deficit of 12.1% and Fitch’s revision of Ghana’s rating outlook to negative • Further fiscal reforms are needed to reassure investors • We update our U...

  • Ghana – Long-term yields to ease on offshore demand - Updated Wed January 9, 2013

    The Bank of Ghana will auction GHS 400mn (USD 212mn) of 3Y bonds on 10 January • We expect a cut-off rate of 19-20%, which looks attractive on a risk/return analysis • We recommend buying the 3Y bond, targeting a 30% annualised return (7.5% non-an...

  • 04-Jan-13 – Building case for AXJ rotation - Updated Thu January 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Nigeria – Long NGN 5Y trade target revised to 11% • Taiwan – Inflation expected to pick up, exports to continue to improve • Commodities – Rising speculative positions on Brent and gasoil • Market focus • Case for AXJ rotat...

  • Diversity - Updated Thu October 11, 2012

    • Despite IMF downgrades to global growth forecasts, real GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa should average around 5% in 2012. Africa continues to present a diverse picture: initially investor concerns centred on the impact of the slowdown in Europe; they no...

  • Nigeria – From new frontier to emerging market - Updated Wed September 5, 2012

    • Nigeria’s inclusion in the JPM GBI-EM series from October has raised offshore interest • Despite a record of poor historic performance relative to the index, Nigeria’s high yields remain attractive • Improving near-term and long-term fundamenta...

  • Asia and Africa – Another round of food inflation? - Updated Tue August 14, 2012

    We assess the potential inflationary impact of the recent spike in grain prices on Asia and Africa • Given the time lag, Asian inflation is likely to rise only in early 2013 if the grain-price spike is sustained • Fiscal and administrative measur...

  • South Africa – SARB cuts rates by 50bps - Updated Thu July 19, 2012

    SARB surprises markets with a 50bps rate cut, taking the repo rate to 5% • While downside risks predominate near-term, future imbalances are still a concern • Further rate easing is unlikely, unless global conditions deteriorate meaningfully...

  • Relative resilience - Updated Thu July 12, 2012

    • Despite global uncertainty, the outlook for Africa remains mixed. While signs of domestic slowdown are evident in the region’s largest economies, other countries are pulling ahead. East Africa continues to witness new oil and gas discoveries, unde...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.