Top 3 data/events
• Taiwan – April monitoring indicators index likely remained in ‘yellow-blue’ zone
• Japan – Retail sales likely improved m/m in April
• Korea – We expect April IP to have improved
• Market focus
• India’s government has take...
• US private consumption has been lacklustre lately despite the windfall savings from lower oil prices
• Desire to rebuild savings and uncertainty around health-care reform may explain recent caution
• We reduce our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% ...
You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Friday 8 May 2015 with 2 sessions: (1) Asia – 16:00 SG/HK (08:00 GMT) and (2) New York – 10:00AM (14:00 GMT) with:
• Sarah Hewin, Chief Economist, Europe (Host, s...
• Benefits of previous rate cuts are emerging – housing market is picking up, KOSPI is rallying, credit is increasing and policy makers are becoming less dovish
• We maintain our view of no rate change this year
• We maintain our Neutral outlook o...
You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Tuesday 7 April 2015 at 2:00PM London (BST) with:
•Razia Khan, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Africa
•Samir Gadio, Head, Africa Strategy, FICC Research
• We think BI will maintain an easing bias amid low inflation and global central bank easing
• Singapore’s February NODX was likely affected by Lunar New Year data distortions
• We expect a BoJ move in April not March
• You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Thursday 12 March 2015. There will be 2 sessions: 16:00 SG/HK / 08:00 London (GMT) and 15:00 London (GMT) / 11:00 NY (EDT) with:
• Sarah Hewin, Head, Macro Res...
• Political intervention in state institutions is reshaping Turkey
• The most visible flashpoint is central bank independence, driving the TRY to historical lows
• CBRT likely to continue to navigate between political pressures while monitoring ex...
• The Philippines emerges as the best performer in Asia in Q4-2014
• Thailand’s growth tracker signals a pick-up in GDP from very soft levels; Indonesia’s GDP remains soft
• Current account trackers are stronger than before
• RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 7.75%, makes further action contingent on upcoming data
• We expect another 25bps inter-meeting cut in March on benign inflation, further fiscal consolidation
• We remain positive on IGBs; recommend short- and me...
• Private consumption is likely to anchor domestic growth amid external volatility
• A lower unemployment rate and more full-time employment are likely to boost income and consumption
• Trend growth could improve by 0.1ppt if 1ppt of those not in ...
• The incidence of new Ebola cases has declined
• The human, social and economic costs are severe in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone
• The impact on the rest of Africa, including the economic cost, has been more limited
• Interim 2015 budget focuses on lowering cost of living; commitment to fiscal consolidation remains
• Government expenditure shifts towards recurrent spending; public investment targets cut
• New taxes introduced on the corporate sector and wealt...
• Digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, big data and mobile technology are transforming both society and economy.
• Adoption of existing and new technology has greater economic impact than invention in both emerging and de...
• You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation and Q&A with:
• David Mann, Head, Asia Macro Research (host)
• Thomas Costerg, US Economist
• John Davies, US Rates Strategist
• Bruno Lettich, Head, G10 R...
• China’s trade surplus likely eased slightly as imports contracted
• BI and the BoK will likely keep rates on hold, but their policy biases will probably differ
• Disinflation is spreading in Asia, but India may buck the trend
• Presidential by-election on 20 January will be a key near-term focus
• Discussions on mining tax royalties and VAT refunds are likely to be deferred until after the election
• ZMW may come under pressure as yields decline
• Uganda will benefit from a lower import bill, but some oil exploration may be deferred
• Government spending likely to increase ahead of 2016 elections
• BoU seen tightening interest policy in 2015 in response to pressure on the UGX
• Constitutional referendum, elections make politics a key focus in 2015
• Donors postpone budget support; budget deficit likely to widen
• USD-TZS upside pressure seen, despite capital-account liberalisation
• Growth remains weak – lower price of imported oil to provide some reprieve
• Politics will remain key to labour relations and of wage negotiations
• Debt ratios to peak at a high level, signalling ongoing vulnerability
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Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.
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