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  • Japan trip notes – Domestic issues matter the most - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Local sentiment continues to improve, but caution remains on the reform outlook • China’s slower growth is negatively affecting Japan’s economy, but not substantially • We are more concerned about progress on domestic reforms, which will determin...

  • India: Reviving growth, brick by brick - Updated Fri April 11, 2014

    The following is a joint research report from the Regional and Equity Research teams. Two versions of the report are available; the Equity Research version includes additional company-specific content. • Growth needs to be the top priority for Indi...

  • China – The long, long march to SOE reform - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Local governments are selling minority stakes in SOEs, a small step forward • SOE exit from 'competitive' industries - a meaningful opening up to the private sector - is still a way off • An expert panel on SOE reform says central government pol...

  • Thailand – Roadmap for sustainable growth - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    • The political outlook is the biggest hurdle for Thailand amid ongoing deep political conflict • To avoid opportunity loss, Thailand urgently needs to re-establish political stability, implement economic reforms, and enhance ASEAN logistics connec...

  • China – Exports slow, but do not collapse - Updated Mon March 10, 2014

    • Adjusting for the holiday and inflated invoicing shows that underlying trade dynamics are still healthy • Inflated invoicing is contracting as banks become increasingly cautious • We forecast GDP growth of 7.6% in Q1-2014...

  • Korea – The new BoK governor - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    President Park chose a technocratic BoK insider as the next governor, against market expectations • Ju-yeol Lee is a moderate in terms of monetary policy; interest-rate cuts are unlikely in the near term • We expect the BoK keep the base rate stea...

  • China – Minister Lou Jiwei’s 2014 to-do list - Updated Thu March 6, 2014

    • China’s budgetary stance for 2014 is neutral; it forecasts a 2.1% deficit • SOEs are still not contributing much to the MoF budget, but the situation is gradually improving • The MoF is overhauling budget planning, improving transparency, cuttin...

  • Bangladesh - Riding out the storm - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    • Growth is likely to remain sub-par at 5.3% and 5.9% in FY14 and FY15, respectively • We expect no change in policy rates as the BB seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability • A narrower current account surplus could put mild depreciation pressur...

  • Turkey – Growth dynamic interrupted, not crushed - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    • Macro prudential measures and steep policy tightening will constrain real GDP growth • We do not envisage a recession scenario; fiscal expansion and exports will limit the downside risks • Politics remain uncertain and could stress markets again...

  • Thailand – We cut GDP forecast on prolonged political gridlock - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    • Although the election has taken place, the political conflict remains unresolved • Yingluck’s political future is in the NACC’s hands as it probes the rice pledging scheme • We cut our 2014 GDP growth forecast to 3.5%, as political gridlock is l...

  • Argentina-Brazil: It takes two to tango - Updated Thu February 6, 2014

    Argentina’s economic crisis is not over; USD-ARS and local rates are likely to move higher • Inflation is expected to spike, and the economy to contract; this is bad news for Brazil • The trade links between Brazil and Argentina are significant ...

  • Egypt – Short-term stimulus, medium-term challenges - Updated Fri January 31, 2014

    • Interim government plans a second EGP 30bn stimulus to revive economy; FY14 GDP projected at 3.5% • USD 12bn financial aid from GCC states will support stimulus spending, strengthen FX reserves • EGX 30 has rallied 63% since the interim govern...

  • China – Masterclass: Silver, revolution and the Qing - Updated Mon January 27, 2014

    • Qing China imported its money and had no monetary authority, but by 1750 its economy was globalised • Economic crisis hit when massive silver imports reversed in 1810-50, and the monetary base contracted • China’s economy has matured much since...

  • Turkey – Vertigo - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    • Turkey is undergoing its worst political crisis since the AKP’s ascent to power • Compounding the existing ‘tapering’ stress, this has led to a substantial market sell-off • International perception of Turkey has been damaged; institutional inte...

  • India – Opposition gains in state elections [CORRECTION] - Updated Mon December 9, 2013

    This supersedes the version published on 9 December 2013. Figure 6, corrects estimated number of seats. • Opposition BJP increases share of seats to 68% from 50% in four state elections; Congress fares poorly • AAP makes an impressive debut in Del...

  • Morocco – Waiting for Europe (to wake up) - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • Agriculture GDP is still the main cause of headline GDP growth volatility • Subsidy reform is a central policy objective, and work should continue in 2014 • We are constructive on Morocco’s medium- to long-term outlook...

  • Iraq – Operating environment is the key - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • The country’s hydrocarbon potential is massive and probably even higher than currently assessed • But the security situation represents a risk to the oil-capacity expansion timeline • Improving the operating environment should be a priori...

  • Turkey – Please Janet, don’t! - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • Turkey’s growth has not decoupled from external imbalances • We see a marginal improvement to 4% real GDP growth in 2014 • Any upside potential will be capped by tightening policy over the course of the year...

  • Tunisia – Transitioning, Part two - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • Political transition success remains the key to higher GDP growth • 2014 should bring some resolution to this process • Official creditors and the international community should remain supportive...

  • Lebanon – Waiting for better days - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    • GDP drivers are still going to be affected by a tense regional situation • Reform of the subsidy system, particularly in the energy sector, is crucial • Lebanon’ financial system remains the backbone of the economy...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.