• The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...
• We lower our 2013 South Africa growth forecast to 2%, amid signs of a slowdown in consumption
• Despite a wider negative output gap, we see receding risks of a further rate cut in this cycle
• The SARB will be constrained by deteriorating inflat...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• Weaker momentum in the domestic economy and a still-sluggish external environment suggest softer growth. We cut our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, from 2.7% previously
• Given a substantial negative output gap, South African interest rates are...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
• Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns
• In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels
• Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances
• Barring any new supply-side shocks, 2013 growth should improve on the 2.5% recorded in 2012
• Higher public-sector investment and accommodative monetary policy should support growth
• A more competitive ZAR is key to South Africa’s recovery pro...
• Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend.
• Despite IMF downgrades to global growth forecasts, real GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa should average around 5% in 2012. Africa continues to present a diverse picture: initially investor concerns centred on the impact of the slowdown in Europe; they no...
Top 3 data/events
• South Korea/Taiwan – Reversal in capital inflows to Taiwan and Korea in April
• India – WPI to print below 7% for a third month in succession
• United States – Inflation remains well-behaved
• Tight monetary po...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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