• We lower our 2013 South Africa growth forecast to 2%, amid signs of a slowdown in consumption
• Despite a wider negative output gap, we see receding risks of a further rate cut in this cycle
• The SARB will be constrained by deteriorating inflat...
• The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• Weaker momentum in the domestic economy and a still-sluggish external environment suggest softer growth. We cut our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, from 2.7% previously
• Given a substantial negative output gap, South African interest rates are...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
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