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  • Africa Focus – Long-term fundamentals - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...

  • South Africa – Risk of a rate cut recedes - Updated Tue October 8, 2013

    • We lower our 2013 South Africa growth forecast to 2%, amid signs of a slowdown in consumption • Despite a wider negative output gap, we see receding risks of a further rate cut in this cycle • The SARB will be constrained by deteriorating inflat...

  • South Africa – Vulnerable on many counts - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Weaker momentum in the domestic economy and a still-sluggish external environment suggest softer growth. We cut our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, from 2.7% previously • Given a substantial negative output gap, South African interest rates are...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Africa overview – Brighter prospects ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China • African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...



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