Top 3 data/events
• Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged
• Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps
• UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report
• Market focus
• We update our P...
• In an emergency meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) made a very strong move, raising all of the interest rates in its complicated monetary policy framework. The upper band of the corridor (O/N lending rate) was raise...
RGI re-accelerated in September, up 3.0% m/m to 1,183, thanks to another strong deposit performance
• Policy breakthrough should provide impetus for faster growth in European market after a strong Q3
• Mainland issuers, led by the Ministry of Fina...
In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1).
• The summer tourism season was even worse than expected
• But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy
• Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds
• We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment
• The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months
• Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now
• The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics
• Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again
• Refinery output capacity should rise by 38%
• Hydrocarbon-based economies are using their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies to reduce long-term risks. Oil importers are constrained by high domestic subsidy bills and weak investment; this is hampering econ...
We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...
• Political developments in Nigeria increase near-term uncertainty
• With politics taking centre-stage earlier than expected, there are upside risks to outlined spending plans
• Any threat to the PDP’s majority in the National Assembly could poten...
• Angola remains oil dependant but non-oil sector now represents more than half of GDP
• Infrastructure bottlenecks and lack of skilled labour are key constraints for non-oil growth
• Greater diversification is necessary to preserve social stabil...
• With QE tapering still expected eventually, credit fundamentals remain in focus
• In SSA, current account deterioration often masks a step-up in investment
• Today’s capital goods imports will allow for tomorrow’s exports
• Africa was the only ...
• A new cabinet to provide fresh impetus to government action
• Progress on living standards has been disappointing
• Many structural issues need to be addressed to achieve higher growth...
• Despite a likely setback to tourism, we expect Kenya’s economy to be largely resilient
• Even given weaker-than-expected headline GDP in Q2, many other sectors outperformed
• Fiscal revenue in Q1-FY14 was above the budget target
• Higher headli...
• Strong growth momentum to remain
• Higher twin deficits on the back of higher investment
• Political uncertainty has increased...
• Growth has picked up, but remains lower than in many SSA countries
• The fiscal outlook is deteriorating due to the weight of fuel subsidies
• The national refinery suffers from government arrears...
• The Fed’s decision to postpone tapering QE in September led to a relief rally in some markets. In others, the focus on more negative credit fundamentals remains. With tapering of QE still expected eventually, we look at the underlying trend in mor...
• We lower our 2013 South Africa growth forecast to 2%, amid signs of a slowdown in consumption
• Despite a wider negative output gap, we see receding risks of a further rate cut in this cycle
• The SARB will be constrained by deteriorating inflat...
• Slower H1 GDP suggests that last year’s public-sector wage hikes did not have a lasting impact on growth
• Utility and fuel price adjustments are encouraging, but a large debt service burden and weak budget flexibility will curb pro-growth spendi...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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