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  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • Zambia takes action to defend the currency [CORRECTION] - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    • This supersedes the version dated 21 March 2014. Page 1, third paragraph, corrects the policy rate. • Bank of Zambia tightens policy further, raising rate on overnight lending facility with immediate effect • Earlier regulation suspending FX b...

  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • CBRT makes an about-face - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    Event • In an emergency meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) made a very strong move, raising all of the interest rates in its complicated monetary policy framework. The upper band of the corridor (O/N lending rate) was raise...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI to get a further policy boost - Updated Thu November 7, 2013

    RGI re-accelerated in September, up 3.0% m/m to 1,183, thanks to another strong deposit performance • Policy breakthrough should provide impetus for faster growth in European market after a strong Q3 • Mainland issuers, led by the Ministry of Fina...

  • The super-cycle lives: EM growth is key - Updated Wed November 6, 2013

    In 2010 we argued that fast growth in emerging markets (EM) and their increasing weight in world GDP was driving an economic super-cycle. We have lowered our forecasts for China, India and others, but the case broadly still holds (see Part 1). • We...

  • Lebanon – Don’t bank on tourism - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The summer tourism season was even worse than expected • But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy • Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds ...

  • Iraq – Security situation worsens - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment • The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months • Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now ...

  • Bahrain – Oil is the focus - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics • Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again • Refinery output capacity should rise by 38% ...



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Trade idea

01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatility should support carry currencies near-term...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.