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  • 12-May – China’s growth was likely weak in April [Correction] - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely reached a record high in March • Euro area – We expect GDP to have been buoyant in Q1 • Ghana – Monetary policy committee likely to hold prime rate at 21% • Market focus • April growth indices were...

  • EM-21 – Diverging FX reserves trends in Asia - Updated Tue January 20, 2015

    EM-21 reserves declined by USD 28bn in December, led by declines in Russia, Turkey and Malaysia • Asian central bank reserves increased by USD 10.3bn in December, the 10th consecutive monthly increase • In Asia, while reserves continued to climb...

  • 16-Jan – The SNB, RBI and policy credibility - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Revised IP likely to show a smaller m/m drop • India – RBI surprised with an inter-meeting rate cut • US – Not immune to global disinflationary trends as CPI is set to drop • Market focus • SNB step to scrap EUR-CHF...

  • India – Looking ahead to 2015 - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts • Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts • We expect most of the government’s recentl...

  • 19-Dec – NGN – FX trading comes to a halt - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders to show mixed demand; job data set to improve • Euro area – Consumer confidence will likely pick up • Colombia – BanRep to hold rates unchanged at 4.5% • Market focus • CBN cuts foreign-exchange tradi...

  • 18-Dec – Fed meeting – Three’s a crowd - Updated Wed December 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ unlikely to move at its last policy meeting of 2014 • CNH – Tight onshore liquidity to keep CNH points elevated • UK – Consumer confidence likely improved in December • Market focus • FOMC is ‘patient’ but Chair...

  • 17-Dec – More pain before gain for the INR - Updated Tue December 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – We expect the CBC to keep benchmark policy rate unchanged • New Zealand – Q3 GDP growth likely remained strong at 0.6% q/q • Germany – IFO business climate likely improved in December • Market focus • Crowded posit...

  • 16-Dec – Abenomics 2.0 is unlikely - Updated Mon December 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation is likely to remain muted • Thailand – We expect the BoT to stay put on rates • UK – Labour-market slack likely diminished further • Market focus • The ruling bloc wins a super-majority in the lower h...

  • 15-Dec – Fed: Considerably patient - Updated Sun December 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - NODX expansion expected due to favourable base effect • Euro area – December PMI will likely improve marginally • Nigeria – November CPI likely to reflect FX weakness • Market focus • We think the Fed will repla...

  • Zambia – Focus on the presidential by-election - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Presidential by-election on 20 January will be a key near-term focus • Discussions on mining tax royalties and VAT refunds are likely to be deferred until after the election • ZMW may come under pressure as yields decline ...

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