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  • Asia data previews – 24 April-1 May 2015 - Updated Fri April 24, 2015

    BoJ may add JPY 10tn to its asset purchase programme and reconsider the inflation target timeline • BoT is likely finished with its easing cycle; the RBNZ may maintain its dovish stance but not ease as yet • China’s manufacturing sector is still u...

  • China onshore rates – Supply risk is real, curve to steepen - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    This year’s local government issuance will start soon, likely crowding out demand for long-dated CGBs • Gross issuance of local government bonds will rise 4x to CNY 1.6tn this year, mostly long-dated • We expect more proactive easing in Q2 followi...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Asia economy trackers – Slight improvement vs Q4 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    Trackers signalling stronger Q1 GDP growth outnumber those signalling weaker growth • Trackers for China, Australia and Japan suggest a soft performance in Q1-2015 • Trackers for India, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong indicate stronger growth ...

  • Asia data previews – 10-17 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    China’s Q1 GDP growth may have slowed to 6.9% y/y on lower manufacturing, housing investment • Singapore’s MAS is likely to re-centre the SGD NEER in April; BI will likely keep rates on hold • The unemployment rate likely declined in South Korea ...

  • Offshore RMB: Extending receive 5Y CNH CCS target - Updated Thu April 9, 2015

    We extend the target of our receive 5Y CNH CCS trade to 3.2%, as our initial target was met in two weeks • CNH liquidity conditions could ease further on strong southbound flows under Stock Connect, steady FX • Refinancing pressure will ease mater...

  • Asia data previews – 3-10 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 3, 2015

    BoJ, RBA and RBI are likely to keep policy rates unchanged but ease further in Q2 • We also expect BoK to keep policy rates on hold for now and act on future data movements • China’s inflation and credit growth could ease, allowing room for furthe...

  • 25-Mar – Reading SARB signals - Updated Tue March 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – February export data likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Singapore – We expect IP to have contracted in January-February • Euro area – Pick-up in credit cycle likely continued in February • Market focus • We ...

  • Offshore RMB – Buy Dim Sum bonds, receive 5Y CCS - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    Offshore Renminbi rates are likely peaking as FX sentiment improves and onshore liquidity eases Refinancing pressure on CDs should subside in Q2; CNH discount to CNY to narrow significantly We expect 1Y CD rate to fall to 3.6-3.8% in Q2; swapped b...

  • 19-Mar – India – Stay Positive on IGBs; Neutral INR - Updated Wed March 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export order growth likely declined in February • Hong Kong – Holiday data distortion likely caused the CPI jump in February • UK – Official forecasts revised • Market focus • Indian banks’ year-end profit booking ...



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Trade idea

China onshore rates – Supply risk is...

This year’s local government issuance will start soon, likely crowding out demand for long-dated CGBs • Gross issuance of local government bonds will rise 4x to CNY 1.6tn this year, mostly long-dated • We expect more proactive easing in Q2 following the 100bps RRR cut; 7-day repo could...

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