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  • Hong Kong – SMEs remain cautiously optimistic - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    Our survey shows that SMEs are less optimistic on Q2-2014 than they were a quarter ago • The 50.8 reading is still consistent with business expansion; margin concerns have re-emerged • All three major industry sub-indices are above 51.0, boding we...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI unaffected by FX volatility - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 6.8% y/y in February; strong momentum likely carried over to March, despite volatile CNY • Appointment of clearing banks in Europe will boost Renminbi usage; deposits in Taiwan keep growing • Higher CNY volatility will be the post band-...

  • 19-Mar – Challenging the bear hug - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation begins to edge lower • New Zealand – Q4-2013 GDP likely reflected strong recovery momentum • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show an improving growth outlook • Market focus • Russia faces more sancti...

  • China – 375 clients talk wages in the PRD - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    • Our PRD manufacturer survey suggests wages will rise 9.2% in 2014, versus 8.4% in 2013 • Labour shortages continue; most clients plan to invest in equipment, but a growing minority will relocate • Productivity growth continues to keep pace with ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

  • Offshore Renminbi: Pay 2Y USD-CNH CCS - Updated Fri February 28, 2014

    USD-CNH CCS rates have declined by 23-35bps in the past month to their lowest levels since Nov-11 • This is due to flush CNH liquidity, previous swap-based bond issuance, and a decline in DF points • CCS rates have likely bottomed: swap issuance i...

  • Hong Kong – Older, wiser, stronger - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    The population in Hong Kong is ageing; it needs wiser fiscal policy long-term to avoid a structural deficit • FY15 budget is a good start, and a stronger economy means a healthy fiscal position in the coming years • The property-market price cor...

  • 25-Feb – Singapore investor roundtable: Optimistic bears - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January industrial production likely softer • Hong Kong – Scaling back one-off fiscal concessions • South Africa – Fiscal consolidation in an election year • Market focus • We held a Singapore investor roundtabl...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 20-Feb – Fed QE taper on auto pilot - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Steady inflation continues • Brazil – All eyes on January’s balance of payments data • Chile – What lies beneath • Market focus • January’s minutes show that the bar to pause Fed QE tapering remains very high ...

  • Offshore Renminbi bonds – Outlook for 2014 - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    We like Dim Sum bonds for their defensive nature; they offer solid returns with relatively low volatility • Returns likely to exceed 5% for overall market and 3% for CGBs, mainly from interest accrual and FX • Bond yields have likely bottomed; we...

  • Hong Kong – SME sentiment is turning positive - Updated Fri January 17, 2014

    SME sentiment towards Q1-2014 improved to positive from neutral; all main sub-components reached new highs • Profit-margin expectation is now back at c.50.0; better sales allow the SMEs to pass on higher costs • The manufacturing sector’s strong p...

  • 17-Jan – China’s Q4 GDP was likely solid - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Lunar New Year demand likely supported export orders • Hong Kong – Jobless rate expected to stay low for longer • United Kingdom – December retail sales likely to nudge upwards • Market focus • We forecast China’s...

  • 14-Jan – Raising PHP to medium-term Overweight - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Policy address to focus on tackling poverty • India – December WPI expected to show an improvement • United States – Retail sales data likely moderated in December • Market focus • Upcoming Philippine remittanc...

  • A new normal in Hong Kong FX options - Updated Mon January 6, 2014

    • The seasonal upturn in Hong Kong FX options is having a bigger impact on the CNH than on the HKD • The USD-CNH implied volatility decline comes amid rising realised volatility and policy uncertainty • Leveraged accounts should buy USD-CNH option...

  • 14-Nov – Yellen’s hearing: Safety first - Updated Wed November 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Q3 GDP report to confirm continued resilience • Malaysia – GDP likely picked up as external demand improved • Philippines – Stable remittance growth likely • Market focus • We expect Yellen to ‘play it safe’ a...

  • CNH – Flush liquidity to support CGB auction - Updated Fri November 8, 2013

    The year’s second offshore China Government Bond (CGB) issuance will take place on 21 November • Valuation is cheap on lower funding costs; 3Y CGB on a swapped basis is now trading at USD L+100bps • We expect stronger demand; 3Y note is likely to...

  • HKD – Stronger for longer - Updated Fri November 8, 2013

    • The HKD is approaching the strong end of its band on capital inflows, rate differentials and seasonals • We lower our USD-HKD forecast but still look for a rebound in 2014 on Fed tapering and capital outflows • USD-HKD forwards beyond 3M trade b...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI to get a further policy boost - Updated Thu November 7, 2013

    RGI re-accelerated in September, up 3.0% m/m to 1,183, thanks to another strong deposit performance • Policy breakthrough should provide impetus for faster growth in European market after a strong Q3 • Mainland issuers, led by the Ministry of Fina...

  • The Renminbi’s 2020 odyssey - Updated Mon November 4, 2013

    In this issue of The Renminbi Insider, we look ahead to 2020 and explain the currency’s likely odyssey across the trade, FX and the rates space. We expect 28% of China’s international trade to be denominated in Renminbi by 2020, some USD 3tn a year....



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