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  • 20-May – ECB comments to offset any PMI pick-up - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – SAFE data shows FX demand, but stability still favoured • Hong Kong – Inflation likely to have edged lower in April • South Africa – We see the SARB as hawkish, but on hold • Market focus • Euro-area economy is stro...

  • CNH CGB auction – Less supply amid more easing [Correction] - Updated Mon May 18, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 18 May 2015. Changes target level for 10Y CNH CGB trade to 3.1%. • China’s Ministry of Finance will issue CNY 28bn offshore bonds in 2015 – half this week and half in H2 • Issuance amount is lower than expected; n...

  • 14-May – BoK likely to keep base rate on hold - Updated Wed May 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – CGPI may have contracted as the sales-tax effect faded • Hong Kong – We expect downside risks to Q1 GDP growth • Latam – We expect the BCCh and BCRP to keep rates unchanged • Market focus • We expect no BoK rate cut...

  • Asia data previews – 8-15 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 8, 2015

    China growth likely softened further in April, while inflation remained subdued • We expect the central banks of the Philippines and South Korea to keep policy rates on hold • IP growth in Malaysia probably eased in March; private consumption like...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • Hong Kong – SME sentiment turns cautious again - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Our SME sentiment tracker dips back into pessimistic territory in Q2 amid weaker sales expectations • Record-high hiring expectations are a lone bright spot; investment expectations weakest since Q4-2012 • External headwinds continue to weigh on m...

  • Asia data previews – 2-8 May 2015 - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Inflation likely rose slightly in China, Indonesia, and Taiwan, but fell slightly in the Philippines • We expect the RBA to cut the policy rate by 25bps, and BNM to maintain it • Trade data for China, Malaysia, and Taiwan likely improved...

  • Asia data previews – 24 April-1 May 2015 - Updated Fri April 24, 2015

    BoJ may add JPY 10tn to its asset purchase programme and reconsider the inflation target timeline • BoT is likely finished with its easing cycle; the RBNZ may maintain its dovish stance but not ease as yet • China’s manufacturing sector is still u...

  • China onshore rates – Supply risk is real, curve to steepen - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    This year’s local government issuance will start soon, likely crowding out demand for long-dated CGBs • Gross issuance of local government bonds will rise 4x to CNY 1.6tn this year, mostly long-dated • We expect more proactive easing in Q2 followi...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Asia economy trackers – Slight improvement vs Q4 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    Trackers signalling stronger Q1 GDP growth outnumber those signalling weaker growth • Trackers for China, Australia and Japan suggest a soft performance in Q1-2015 • Trackers for India, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong indicate stronger growth ...

  • Asia data previews – 10-17 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    China’s Q1 GDP growth may have slowed to 6.9% y/y on lower manufacturing, housing investment • Singapore’s MAS is likely to re-centre the SGD NEER in April; BI will likely keep rates on hold • The unemployment rate likely declined in South Korea ...

  • Offshore RMB: Extending receive 5Y CNH CCS target - Updated Thu April 9, 2015

    We extend the target of our receive 5Y CNH CCS trade to 3.2%, as our initial target was met in two weeks • CNH liquidity conditions could ease further on strong southbound flows under Stock Connect, steady FX • Refinancing pressure will ease mater...

  • Asia data previews – 3-10 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 3, 2015

    BoJ, RBA and RBI are likely to keep policy rates unchanged but ease further in Q2 • We also expect BoK to keep policy rates on hold for now and act on future data movements • China’s inflation and credit growth could ease, allowing room for furthe...

  • 25-Mar – Reading SARB signals - Updated Tue March 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – February export data likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Singapore – We expect IP to have contracted in January-February • Euro area – Pick-up in credit cycle likely continued in February • Market focus • We ...

  • Offshore RMB – Buy Dim Sum bonds, receive 5Y CCS - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    Offshore Renminbi rates are likely peaking as FX sentiment improves and onshore liquidity eases Refinancing pressure on CDs should subside in Q2; CNH discount to CNY to narrow significantly We expect 1Y CD rate to fall to 3.6-3.8% in Q2; swapped b...

  • 19-Mar – India – Stay Positive on IGBs; Neutral INR - Updated Wed March 18, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export order growth likely declined in February • Hong Kong – Holiday data distortion likely caused the CPI jump in February • UK – Official forecasts revised • Market focus • Indian banks’ year-end profit booking ...

  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Embracing reforms - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    • RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum • We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015 • Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...

  • Asia data previews – 27 Feb – 6 Mar 2015 - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    • We expect the RBA and BNM to keep policy rates on hold; RBA may be a close call • Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines to release inflation data, with differing expectations • We see still-weak export growth in South Korea and Ma...



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20-May – ECB comments to offset any PMI...

Top 3 data/events • China – SAFE data shows FX demand, but stability still favoured • Hong Kong – Inflation likely to have edged lower in April • South Africa – We see the SARB as hawkish, but on hold • Market focus • Euro-area economy is strong, but some headwinds are returning • PMIs...

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