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  • Offshore Renminbi: Pay 2Y USD-CNH CCS - Updated Fri February 28, 2014

    USD-CNH CCS rates have declined by 23-35bps in the past month to their lowest levels since Nov-11 • This is due to flush CNH liquidity, previous swap-based bond issuance, and a decline in DF points • CCS rates have likely bottomed: swap issuance i...

  • Hong Kong – Older, wiser, stronger - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    The population in Hong Kong is ageing; it needs wiser fiscal policy long-term to avoid a structural deficit • FY15 budget is a good start, and a stronger economy means a healthy fiscal position in the coming years • The property-market price cor...

  • 25-Feb – Singapore investor roundtable: Optimistic bears - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January industrial production likely softer • Hong Kong – Scaling back one-off fiscal concessions • South Africa – Fiscal consolidation in an election year • Market focus • We held a Singapore investor roundtabl...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 20-Feb – Fed QE taper on auto pilot - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Steady inflation continues • Brazil – All eyes on January’s balance of payments data • Chile – What lies beneath • Market focus • January’s minutes show that the bar to pause Fed QE tapering remains very high ...

  • Offshore Renminbi bonds – Outlook for 2014 - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    We like Dim Sum bonds for their defensive nature; they offer solid returns with relatively low volatility • Returns likely to exceed 5% for overall market and 3% for CGBs, mainly from interest accrual and FX • Bond yields have likely bottomed; we...

  • Hong Kong – SME sentiment is turning positive - Updated Fri January 17, 2014

    SME sentiment towards Q1-2014 improved to positive from neutral; all main sub-components reached new highs • Profit-margin expectation is now back at c.50.0; better sales allow the SMEs to pass on higher costs • The manufacturing sector’s strong p...

  • 17-Jan – China’s Q4 GDP was likely solid - Updated Thu January 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Lunar New Year demand likely supported export orders • Hong Kong – Jobless rate expected to stay low for longer • United Kingdom – December retail sales likely to nudge upwards • Market focus • We forecast China’s...

  • 14-Jan – Raising PHP to medium-term Overweight - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Policy address to focus on tackling poverty • India – December WPI expected to show an improvement • United States – Retail sales data likely moderated in December • Market focus • Upcoming Philippine remittanc...

  • A new normal in Hong Kong FX options - Updated Mon January 6, 2014

    • The seasonal upturn in Hong Kong FX options is having a bigger impact on the CNH than on the HKD • The USD-CNH implied volatility decline comes amid rising realised volatility and policy uncertainty • Leveraged accounts should buy USD-CNH option...



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25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year...

Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX market reopens amid sustained onshore demand for...

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