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  • Take profit on 2Y USD-CNH CCS, as liquidity will stabilise - Updated Tue May 27, 2014

    We take profit on our pay 2Y USD-CNH CCS trade (a gain of 48bps after the bid-offer) as it hits our target • Recent tightening of CNH liquidity was due to bond-proceeds remittance and slower deposit growth • The rise in CCS was also due to the la...

  • 26-May – European voters eye the extremes - Updated Sun May 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Rising leading index suggests stronger growth • South Africa – Q1 GDP release may show weakest growth since 2009 • Hong Kong – Exports likely stabilised further • Market focus • The outcome of this weekend’s elect...

  • 21-May – BoE: Toning down the rhetoric - Updated Tue May 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation continues to edge lower • Taiwan – Pick-up in economic activity likely supported the job market • South Africa – Taking profit on long 10Y bonds • Market focus • Markets hope for further guidance on th...

  • Offshore RMB – Survey suggests steady RGI growth - Updated Wed May 7, 2014

    RGI rose 9.4% m/m in March, the fastest since Sep-11, despite slowing China growth and FX uncertainty • Survey suggests CNH growth will remain solid; respondents want more cross-border Renminbi channels • Offshore companies prefer to settle trade...

  • 25-Apr – Banxico, BanRep dovish in their own ways - Updated Thu April 24, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • EM bonds – Impact of ELMI+ rebalancing should be limited • Japan – Retail sales likely continued to accelerate m/m in March • Taiwan – Leading index likely to show stronger growth in Q1 • Market focus • We expect Ba...

  • Hong Kong – SMEs remain cautiously optimistic - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    Our survey shows that SMEs are less optimistic on Q2-2014 than they were a quarter ago • The 50.8 reading is still consistent with business expansion; margin concerns have re-emerged • All three major industry sub-indices are above 51.0, boding we...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI unaffected by FX volatility - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 6.8% y/y in February; strong momentum likely carried over to March, despite volatile CNY • Appointment of clearing banks in Europe will boost Renminbi usage; deposits in Taiwan keep growing • Higher CNY volatility will be the post band-...

  • 19-Mar – Challenging the bear hug - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation begins to edge lower • New Zealand – Q4-2013 GDP likely reflected strong recovery momentum • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show an improving growth outlook • Market focus • Russia faces more sancti...

  • China – 375 clients talk wages in the PRD - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    • Our PRD manufacturer survey suggests wages will rise 9.2% in 2014, versus 8.4% in 2013 • Labour shortages continue; most clients plan to invest in equipment, but a growing minority will relocate • Productivity growth continues to keep pace with ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

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Trade idea

Offshore RMB: Extending receive 5Y CNH...

We extend the target of our receive 5Y CNH CCS trade to 3.2%, as our initial target was met in two weeks • CNH liquidity conditions could ease further on strong southbound flows under Stock Connect, steady FX • Refinancing pressure will ease materially in Q2 as CD redemption declines...

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