RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance
• Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved
• Renminbi trade settlement remains s...
Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call
• USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility
• We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...
• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
• Gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value set to stall amid subdued growth and less favourable seasonals
• We revise upward our USD-CNY forecast profile while still projecting a mild CNY rebound in H2
• We lower our short-term FX weighting on the ...
CNY may weaken mildly near-term, despite the lack of a depreciating signal from the fix
• Tightness in both onshore and offshore liquidity likely to persist, keeping forward points elevated
• We close our short USD-CNH 6M DF position and look for ...
Northbound flows hit daily limit on the first day, draining 1.2% of Hong Kong’s total Renminbi deposits
• Technical factors support stronger northbound flows than southbound during the initial period
• Near-term impact is tighter liquidity; net de...
RGI now includes Seoul and Paris, reflecting their contribution to Renminbi deposits and payment flows
• Excluding the new centres, August was a slow month for the RGI amid lingering China macro concerns
• Paris is well placed to enjoy recent pol...
RGI growth remains slow; we expect better growth in Q4 on rebound in sentiment
• Cross-border Renminbi payments rose in July, although the Renminbi’s share of China trade dropped
• We revise down our forecast for Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to ...
USD-CNY and USD-CNH spot has bounced off 6.14 and CNH forward points remain elevated
• Near-term CNY gains may be muted on mixed July data and broader USD gains
• Leveraged accounts should take profit on their short USD-CNH 6M DF positions...
• RGI m/m growth was the slowest in 20 months, reflecting lingering negative effects from prior months
• Survey shows little rebound in CNH activity; onshore companies are increasing usage
• Shanghai FTZ is off to a good start; many respondents ar...
USD-CNY fix retreated by 0.3% in just two days amid China-USD SED talks and June trade data
• USD-CNY NDF curve has extended steepening, with USD-CNH 6M NDF marginally higher than a week ago
• Leveraged accounts long USD-CNY 6M NDFs vs. short USD-...
• We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover
• New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB
• We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...
RGI re-accelerated in September, up 3.0% m/m to 1,183, thanks to another strong deposit performance
• Policy breakthrough should provide impetus for faster growth in European market after a strong Q3
• Mainland issuers, led by the Ministry of Fina...
In this issue of The Renminbi Insider, we look ahead to 2020 and explain the currency’s likely odyssey across the trade, FX and the rates space. We expect 28% of China’s international trade to be denominated in Renminbi by 2020, some USD 3tn a year....
RGI’s rise moderated in August to 1.8% m/m; strong deposit growth across centres is a bright spot
• Survey suggests that CNH growth is picking up again, although Dim Sum issuers remain cautious
• We added new survey questions to understand which f...
The RGI reached a landmark level in May; strong cross-border payment flows were a big contributor
• Our third CNH corporate survey confirms a mild RGI slowdown in store; underlying market drivers intact
• We also interviewed 120 Asian investors th...
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