Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call
• USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility
• We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...
• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
• Gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value set to stall amid subdued growth and less favourable seasonals
• We revise upward our USD-CNY forecast profile while still projecting a mild CNY rebound in H2
• We lower our short-term FX weighting on the ...
CNY may weaken mildly near-term, despite the lack of a depreciating signal from the fix
• Tightness in both onshore and offshore liquidity likely to persist, keeping forward points elevated
• We close our short USD-CNH 6M DF position and look for ...
Northbound flows hit daily limit on the first day, draining 1.2% of Hong Kong’s total Renminbi deposits
• Technical factors support stronger northbound flows than southbound during the initial period
• Near-term impact is tighter liquidity; net de...
RGI now includes Seoul and Paris, reflecting their contribution to Renminbi deposits and payment flows
• Excluding the new centres, August was a slow month for the RGI amid lingering China macro concerns
• Paris is well placed to enjoy recent pol...
RGI growth remains slow; we expect better growth in Q4 on rebound in sentiment
• Cross-border Renminbi payments rose in July, although the Renminbi’s share of China trade dropped
• We revise down our forecast for Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to ...
USD-CNY and USD-CNH spot has bounced off 6.14 and CNH forward points remain elevated
• Near-term CNY gains may be muted on mixed July data and broader USD gains
• Leveraged accounts should take profit on their short USD-CNH 6M DF positions...
• RGI m/m growth was the slowest in 20 months, reflecting lingering negative effects from prior months
• Survey shows little rebound in CNH activity; onshore companies are increasing usage
• Shanghai FTZ is off to a good start; many respondents ar...
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