• We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover
• New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB
• We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...
RGI re-accelerated in September, up 3.0% m/m to 1,183, thanks to another strong deposit performance
• Policy breakthrough should provide impetus for faster growth in European market after a strong Q3
• Mainland issuers, led by the Ministry of Fina...
In this issue of The Renminbi Insider, we look ahead to 2020 and explain the currency’s likely odyssey across the trade, FX and the rates space. We expect 28% of China’s international trade to be denominated in Renminbi by 2020, some USD 3tn a year....
RGI’s rise moderated in August to 1.8% m/m; strong deposit growth across centres is a bright spot
• Survey suggests that CNH growth is picking up again, although Dim Sum issuers remain cautious
• We added new survey questions to understand which f...
The RGI reached a landmark level in May; strong cross-border payment flows were a big contributor
• Our third CNH corporate survey confirms a mild RGI slowdown in store; underlying market drivers intact
• We also interviewed 120 Asian investors th...
• SAFE created a new mechanism to regulate bank NOPs by linking bank FX LDR ratios with the NOP floor
• The aggregate necessary increase in NOP is estimated at USD 23bn, a relatively small amount in our view
• Stricter scrutiny of trade invoices ...
• RGI rose to another new high of 892 in March, reflecting policy push across geographies
• Singapore gears up for a bigger CNH role in ASEAN; reassurance on liquidity is likely to follow
• The HKMA’s recent removal of regulatory impediments shou...
The appointment of an Renminbi-clearing bank in Singapore marks a key milestone for CNH
• Having clearing facilities in Singapore will facilitate regional CNH trade in Southeast Asia
• The arrangement will provide an additional boost to China-Sing...
We launch the Standard Chartered RGI, which tracks the Renminbi’s level of globalisation
• We also introduce our Offshore Renminbi Corporate Survey of local and global corporates
• As the CNY heads towards global reserve currency status, its broad...
• Use of the Renminbi as a trade settlement currency is on the rise around the world. In July-August, 12.3% of China’s trade was settled in CNY, up from 10.7% in the first half of the year. This is being driven by real corporate need rather than arb...
• Taiwan-China currency swap agreement reinforces cross-straits ties and Renminbi internationalisation
• Vigorous initial CNY deposit build likely, but two key issues on CNY fungibility still need to be addressed
• New ‘CNT’ identifier seen for ...
• USD-CNH forward points have climbed without any substantial bounce in option-implied volatility
• Roll-down in the forwards more than offsets the cost of USD-CNH ATMF options in the shorter expiries
• USD-CNH 6M forward is 1.18% above spot and 1...
Key events and data
• Indonesia – BI to keep interest rates on hold
• Philippines – Export growth to remain positive
• South Korea – BoK to keep interest rates unchanged
• China’s economy shows tentative signs of recovery, but dow...
• The Renminbi is heading overseas – it is going Haiwai (海外). CNY-denominated trade flows between China and the rest of Asia are increasing, CNH trading is picking up in London, and China has announced the creation of a new international CNY payment...
We update Standard Chartered Transaction Flows, including data up to end-March 2012
• SCTF Position Index indicates the market remains short USD vs. all AXJ currencies except IDR, THB
• Short USD positioning remains substantial versus SGD, KRW, ...
Top 3 key events and data
• China – Late-quarter slide in USD-CNY may bring April rebound
• Hong Kong – Retail sales likely remained resilient
• US – Durable goods progress endures
• Friday’s FX rebalancing will likely result in h...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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