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  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Another year of progress ahead - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53% • We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation • Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...

  • CNY – A new focus on trade-weighted stability - Updated Tue January 6, 2015

    • Gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value set to stall amid subdued growth and less favourable seasonals • We revise upward our USD-CNY forecast profile while still projecting a mild CNY rebound in H2 • We lower our short-term FX weighting on the ...

  • Close short USD-CNH DF - Updated Fri December 19, 2014

    CNY may weaken mildly near-term, despite the lack of a depreciating signal from the fix • Tightness in both onshore and offshore liquidity likely to persist, keeping forward points elevated • We close our short USD-CNH 6M DF position and look for ...

  • Day one of Stock Connect and the impact on liquidity - Updated Mon November 17, 2014

    Northbound flows hit daily limit on the first day, draining 1.2% of Hong Kong’s total Renminbi deposits • Technical factors support stronger northbound flows than southbound during the initial period • Near-term impact is tighter liquidity; net de...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Seoul and Paris join the RGI - Updated Tue October 7, 2014

    RGI now includes Seoul and Paris, reflecting their contribution to Renminbi deposits and payment flows • Excluding the new centres, August was a slow month for the RGI amid lingering China macro concerns • Paris is well placed to enjoy recent pol...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Slow but steady - Updated Mon September 8, 2014

    RGI growth remains slow; we expect better growth in Q4 on rebound in sentiment • Cross-border Renminbi payments rose in July, although the Renminbi’s share of China trade dropped • We revise down our forecast for Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to ...

  • Take profit on short USD-CNH 6M DF trade - Updated Wed August 20, 2014

    USD-CNY and USD-CNH spot has bounced off 6.14 and CNH forward points remain elevated • Near-term CNY gains may be muted on mixed July data and broader USD gains • Leveraged accounts should take profit on their short USD-CNH 6M DF positions...

  • Offshore RMB – A pragmatic view from onshore - Updated Thu August 7, 2014

    • RGI m/m growth was the slowest in 20 months, reflecting lingering negative effects from prior months • Survey shows little rebound in CNH activity; onshore companies are increasing usage • Shanghai FTZ is off to a good start; many respondents ar...

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