Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call
• USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility
• We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...
• RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum
• We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015
• Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
• Gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value set to stall amid subdued growth and less favourable seasonals
• We revise upward our USD-CNY forecast profile while still projecting a mild CNY rebound in H2
• We lower our short-term FX weighting on the ...
An increase in HKD demand towards mid-year pushed USD-HKD to the 7.75 Convertibility Undertaking
HKMA operations to keep USD-HKD within the 7.75-7.85 band are part of the LERS’ normal operations
The LERS remains well suited for Hong Kong and will ...
• We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover
• New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB
• We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...
The population in Hong Kong is ageing; it needs wiser fiscal policy long-term to avoid a structural deficit
• FY15 budget is a good start, and a stronger economy means a healthy fiscal position in the coming years
• The property-market price cor...
• The seasonal upturn in Hong Kong FX options is having a bigger impact on the CNH than on the HKD
• The USD-CNH implied volatility decline comes amid rising realised volatility and policy uncertainty
• Leveraged accounts should buy USD-CNH option...
• The HKD is approaching the strong end of its band on capital inflows, rate differentials and seasonals
• We lower our USD-HKD forecast but still look for a rebound in 2014 on Fed tapering and capital outflows
• USD-HKD forwards beyond 3M trade b...
• The HKD recovered some lost ground in Q2 on favourable seasonals as dividend inflows increased
• But we expect USD-HKD to rebound heading into 2014 on portfolio outflows and global market volatility
• With USD-HKD close to the 7.75 floor, buying...
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