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  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Embracing reforms - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    • RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum • We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015 • Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...

  • CNY – A new focus on trade-weighted stability - Updated Tue January 6, 2015

    • Gains in the CNY’s trade-weighted value set to stall amid subdued growth and less favourable seasonals • We revise upward our USD-CNY forecast profile while still projecting a mild CNY rebound in H2 • We lower our short-term FX weighting on the ...

  • HKD – Opportunities at the limit - Updated Fri July 11, 2014

    An increase in HKD demand towards mid-year pushed USD-HKD to the 7.75 Convertibility Undertaking HKMA operations to keep USD-HKD within the 7.75-7.85 band are part of the LERS’ normal operations The LERS remains well suited for Hong Kong and will ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

  • Hong Kong – Older, wiser, stronger - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    The population in Hong Kong is ageing; it needs wiser fiscal policy long-term to avoid a structural deficit • FY15 budget is a good start, and a stronger economy means a healthy fiscal position in the coming years • The property-market price cor...

  • A new normal in Hong Kong FX options - Updated Mon January 6, 2014

    • The seasonal upturn in Hong Kong FX options is having a bigger impact on the CNH than on the HKD • The USD-CNH implied volatility decline comes amid rising realised volatility and policy uncertainty • Leveraged accounts should buy USD-CNH option...

  • HKD – Stronger for longer - Updated Fri November 8, 2013

    • The HKD is approaching the strong end of its band on capital inflows, rate differentials and seasonals • We lower our USD-HKD forecast but still look for a rebound in 2014 on Fed tapering and capital outflows • USD-HKD forwards beyond 3M trade b...

  • Renewed HKD weakness in Q3 - Updated Wed August 7, 2013

    • The HKD recovered some lost ground in Q2 on favourable seasonals as dividend inflows increased • But we expect USD-HKD to rebound heading into 2014 on portfolio outflows and global market volatility • With USD-HKD close to the 7.75 floor, buying...



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