• We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover
• New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB
• We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...
The population in Hong Kong is ageing; it needs wiser fiscal policy long-term to avoid a structural deficit
• FY15 budget is a good start, and a stronger economy means a healthy fiscal position in the coming years
• The property-market price cor...
• The seasonal upturn in Hong Kong FX options is having a bigger impact on the CNH than on the HKD
• The USD-CNH implied volatility decline comes amid rising realised volatility and policy uncertainty
• Leveraged accounts should buy USD-CNH option...
• The HKD is approaching the strong end of its band on capital inflows, rate differentials and seasonals
• We lower our USD-HKD forecast but still look for a rebound in 2014 on Fed tapering and capital outflows
• USD-HKD forwards beyond 3M trade b...
• The HKD recovered some lost ground in Q2 on favourable seasonals as dividend inflows increased
• But we expect USD-HKD to rebound heading into 2014 on portfolio outflows and global market volatility
• With USD-HKD close to the 7.75 floor, buying...
Ample USD liquidity and capital inflows may weigh on USD-HKD near-term
• But we expect USD-HKD to grind higher in 2013 on global recovery and stronger risk appetite
• Leveraged funds: Buy 1M and 2M ATMF USD calls/HKD puts on Lunar New Year seasona...
This supersedes the version dated 24 August 2012. Corrects advice for corporates on pages 1 and 7.
• Hong Kong has room for manoeuvre on FX policy given powerful reserve build-up and other factors
• But the case for change remains very weak give...
Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production
• Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth
• Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds
• Market focus
• The Moody’s...
We update Standard Chartered Transaction Flows, including data up to end-March 2012
• SCTF Position Index indicates the market remains short USD vs. all AXJ currencies except IDR, THB
• Short USD positioning remains substantial versus SGD, KRW, ...
Top 3 key events and data
• China – Late-quarter slide in USD-CNY may bring April rebound
• Hong Kong – Retail sales likely remained resilient
• US – Durable goods progress endures
• Friday’s FX rebalancing will likely result in h...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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