• We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover
• New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB
• We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...
The population in Hong Kong is ageing; it needs wiser fiscal policy long-term to avoid a structural deficit
• FY15 budget is a good start, and a stronger economy means a healthy fiscal position in the coming years
• The property-market price cor...
• The seasonal upturn in Hong Kong FX options is having a bigger impact on the CNH than on the HKD
• The USD-CNH implied volatility decline comes amid rising realised volatility and policy uncertainty
• Leveraged accounts should buy USD-CNH option...
• The HKD is approaching the strong end of its band on capital inflows, rate differentials and seasonals
• We lower our USD-HKD forecast but still look for a rebound in 2014 on Fed tapering and capital outflows
• USD-HKD forwards beyond 3M trade b...
• The HKD recovered some lost ground in Q2 on favourable seasonals as dividend inflows increased
• But we expect USD-HKD to rebound heading into 2014 on portfolio outflows and global market volatility
• With USD-HKD close to the 7.75 floor, buying...
Ample USD liquidity and capital inflows may weigh on USD-HKD near-term
• But we expect USD-HKD to grind higher in 2013 on global recovery and stronger risk appetite
• Leveraged funds: Buy 1M and 2M ATMF USD calls/HKD puts on Lunar New Year seasona...
This supersedes the version dated 24 August 2012. Corrects advice for corporates on pages 1 and 7.
• Hong Kong has room for manoeuvre on FX policy given powerful reserve build-up and other factors
• But the case for change remains very weak give...
Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production
• Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth
• Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds
• Market focus
• The Moody’s...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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