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  • Taiwan – Things are looking up - Updated Fri April 18, 2014

    Latest Taiwan data shows growth momentum picking up and inflation edging higher The recent student protest is likely to have only a minimal impact on the near-term growth outlook Policy makers may consider shifting to a neutral monetary stance and...

  • Taiwan – H2 outlook for FX and rates - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    We expect a further pick-up in domestic economic activity in H2 and a positive tech-sector outlook • USD-TWD is likely to consolidate in Q3 on TWD NEER, weaker seasonality and a stronger USD outlook • We maintain Neutral short-term and Overweight...

  • Taiwan – Outlook for the Year of the Snake [Correction] - Updated Mon March 11, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 11 March 2013. Corrects government’s 2013 growth forecast to 3.59%. • The government has raised 2013 GDP growth to 3.59% y/y; recent data suggests an improving outlook • Tech-sector recovery will boost capex and ...

  • Q3 dividend outflows’ impact on TWD seen fleeting - Updated Tue July 10, 2012

    TWD tends to display seasonal weakness in Q3 amid subdued equity inflows, heavier dividend outflows • We estimate dividend repatriation may reach USD 2.18bn in Q3, peaking in late July • This will likely weigh on TWD near term, reinforcing our re...

  • 31-May-12 – Spain’s banks steal the Greek show - Updated Wed May 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI likely to slide, confirming the slowdown in manufacturing • Indonesia – Inflation to remain at moderate levels • South Korea – Benign inflation and sluggish trade flows to prevail Market focus • Spain illustrates...

  • 30-May-12 – Another weak quarter for India - Updated Tue May 29, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • South Korea – Industrial production likely rose 1.0% m/m in April • Philippines – Resilient Q1 GDP • Brazil – COPOM in cutting mode, for now Market focus • India’s Q4-FY12 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0%, the weakest si...

  • 25-May-12 – Revisiting the value in vol - Updated Thu May 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Slow loan growth, but the cost of financing is falling • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely to drop • Thailand – Manufacturing production and trade to recover Market focus • Our call for reducing FX beta, raisi...

  • 23-May-12 – China wobbles, Asia trembles - Updated Tue May 22, 2012

    • Top 3 data/events • Chile – We revise up our USD-CLP forecast • South Africa – SARB seen on hold despite CPI move higher • Euro area – Flash PMI indices likely to signal Q2 GDP contraction • Market focus • Asia’s exports to China have slowe...

  • 10-May-12 – Sell in May… - Updated Wed May 9, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – March IIP likely slowed significantly • Malaysia – Central bank to keep rates on hold • Thailand – BoT will likely raise its 2012 GDP growth forecast Market focus • Asian currencies are correcting and have further t...

  • 04-May-12 – Value in vol - Updated Thu May 3, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Taiwan – Rising risk of inflation as tech outlook improves • India – INR under pressure on weak fundamentals • Indonesia – Q1 growth likely moderated Market focus • US NFP report is just one of many near-term event ...

  • 27-Apr-12 – The canary in the coal mine - Updated Thu April 26, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Korea – Industrial production in negative territory • Taiwan – GDP growth to moderate in Q1 • US – Q1 GDP likely to disappoint Market focus • Australia’s money market is pricing in major RBA easing; a warning for the...

  • 26-Apr-12 – BoJ easing to disappoint USD-JPY bulls - Updated Wed April 25, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Japan – March industrial production should remain weak on a m/m basis • Thailand – MPI is likely to show a y/y contraction • Europe – Italy sells bills; Eurostat releases confidence surveys Market focus • BoJ likely ...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.