• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
Top 3 data/events
China – Inflationary pressure likely remained subdued
Philippines – Global influences weigh on remittance growth
UK – Unemployment likely continued trending lower in August
We expect the BoK to keep the base rat...
• Domestic demand reflects recovering consumer sentiment, but supply-side sentiment remains soft
• While industrial activity signals an expansion, trade flows have weakened due to China’s slowdown
• We think the BoK will stay on hold in September;...
A new methodology capturing Korea’s overseas activity is a key driver of the BoK’s stronger trade data
• We believe this is a more significant driver than the change in the treatment of shipbuilding orders
• We raise our current account surplus f...
• Current economic trends and sentiment will likely receive more attention than headline economic figures
• We expect a 25bps policy rate cut at the August MPC meeting
• Hold KRW 5Y/10Y curve-steepening trade (entry: 20bps, current: 22bps; targe...
The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain
• The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows
• In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...
The Post Today reported that the BoT may introduce a holding period for foreigners buying THB bonds
• We believe a price-based approach to FX measures would be less market-disruptive than quantity-based
• We take profit on our long 10Y THB positi...
Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term
• Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls
• Investors should keep exposure to...
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