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  • Offshore Renminbi – Another year of progress ahead - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53% • We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation • Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...

  • 14-Oct – BoK likely to hold and wait - Updated Mon October 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events China – Inflationary pressure likely remained subdued Philippines – Global influences weigh on remittance growth UK – Unemployment likely continued trending lower in August Market focus We expect the BoK to keep the base rat...

  • South Korea – Mixed sentiment - Updated Thu September 4, 2014

    • Domestic demand reflects recovering consumer sentiment, but supply-side sentiment remains soft • While industrial activity signals an expansion, trade flows have weakened due to China’s slowdown • We think the BoK will stay on hold in September;...

  • South Korea – Divergence in trade data - Updated Thu August 21, 2014

    A new methodology capturing Korea’s overseas activity is a key driver of the BoK’s stronger trade data • We believe this is a more significant driver than the change in the treatment of shipbuilding orders • We raise our current account surplus f...

  • South Korea – A rate cut to boost sentiment - Updated Tue July 22, 2014

    • Current economic trends and sentiment will likely receive more attention than headline economic figures • We expect a 25bps policy rate cut at the August MPC meeting • Hold KRW 5Y/10Y curve-steepening trade (entry: 20bps, current: 22bps; targe...

  • Signalling more pain for EM near-term - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain • The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows • In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...

  • Thailand – Risk of capital flow measures - Updated Thu April 25, 2013

    The Post Today reported that the BoT may introduce a holding period for foreigners buying THB bonds • We believe a price-based approach to FX measures would be less market-disruptive than quantity-based • We take profit on our long 10Y THB positi...

  • SC FIRST – Low-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term • Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls • Investors should keep exposure to...



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