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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • Korea – Which came first, the BoK or the market? - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    • BoK cuts the base rate to a record-low 1.75%, against consensus • We expect no further easing this year • We recommend Underweight short-term FX weighting on the KRW and Neutral on KTB duration ...

  • Bank of Korea cuts base rate 25bps - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Korea (BoK) surprised the market today by cutting the base rate by 25bps to 1.75%, a record low – even lower than the level reached during the global financial crisis in 2009. The move was against the market consensus view of no ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Embracing reforms - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    • RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum • We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015 • Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Another year of progress ahead - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53% • We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation • Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...

  • 14-Oct – BoK likely to hold and wait - Updated Mon October 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events China – Inflationary pressure likely remained subdued Philippines – Global influences weigh on remittance growth UK – Unemployment likely continued trending lower in August Market focus We expect the BoK to keep the base rat...

  • South Korea – Mixed sentiment - Updated Thu September 4, 2014

    • Domestic demand reflects recovering consumer sentiment, but supply-side sentiment remains soft • While industrial activity signals an expansion, trade flows have weakened due to China’s slowdown • We think the BoK will stay on hold in September;...

  • South Korea – Divergence in trade data - Updated Thu August 21, 2014

    A new methodology capturing Korea’s overseas activity is a key driver of the BoK’s stronger trade data • We believe this is a more significant driver than the change in the treatment of shipbuilding orders • We raise our current account surplus f...

  • South Korea – A rate cut to boost sentiment - Updated Tue July 22, 2014

    • Current economic trends and sentiment will likely receive more attention than headline economic figures • We expect a 25bps policy rate cut at the August MPC meeting • Hold KRW 5Y/10Y curve-steepening trade (entry: 20bps, current: 22bps; targe...

  • Signalling more pain for EM near-term - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain • The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows • In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...

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