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  • Signalling more pain for EM near-term - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    The two key macro signals – the market’s Fed view and China’s data – signal more near-term pain • The key positioning signal – high cash levels – dampens negative feedback from redemption flows • In H2, slightly better China growth and lower...

  • Thailand – Risk of capital flow measures - Updated Thu April 25, 2013

    The Post Today reported that the BoT may introduce a holding period for foreigners buying THB bonds • We believe a price-based approach to FX measures would be less market-disruptive than quantity-based • We take profit on our long 10Y THB positi...

  • SC FIRST – Low-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term • Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls • Investors should keep exposure to...

  • 23-Nov-12 – Copper struggles as China builds stock - Updated Thu November 22, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Authorities signal their response to KRW gains • Singapore – Industrial production may rebound • Thailand – Base effects to boost export growth • Market focus • We recommend selling into rallies in copper, as ...

  • 16-Jul-12 – Hot summer, cold turkey - Updated Sun July 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth expected to be moderate • Germany – ZEW survey to point to weaker sentiment • United States – Maintain pay 5Y swap spread position • Market focus • We believe that hopes of further QE are optimistic ...

  • South Korea – Bank of Korea cuts repo rate by 25bps - Updated Thu July 12, 2012

    Event: The Bank of Korea (BoK) announced today that it would cut the base rate (7-day repo rate) by 25bps, to 3.00%. The consensus among market economists was that BoK would hold the base rate unchanged. This move signals that the BoK has effectivel...

  • 25-Jun-12 – Moody’s ups the heat on Europe - Updated Sun June 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth • Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds • Market focus • The Moody’s...

  • 14-June-12 – Relative value in Asian local markets - Updated Wed June 13, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – No expected change in BoJ’s policy rate and asset purchases • Philippines – April should show healthy growth in remittances • United States – Headline weakness takes time to hit the core • Market focus • Investors s...

  • 13-June-12 – Firmer ground for the RBI to cut rates - Updated Tue June 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2012 • Euro area – Chancellor Merkel to outline her stance ahead of the G20 meeting • US – We forecast weaker-than-consensus May retail sales • Market foc...

  • 12-June-12 – Spectre of 17 June casts its shadow - Updated Mon June 11, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT to keep interest rates on hold • Ghana – BoG expected to hike another 100bps • United States – Small business to be range-bound in 2012 • Market focus • The Greek elections on 17 June continue to pose a threa...

  • 30-May-12 – Another weak quarter for India - Updated Tue May 29, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • South Korea – Industrial production likely rose 1.0% m/m in April • Philippines – Resilient Q1 GDP • Brazil – COPOM in cutting mode, for now Market focus • India’s Q4-FY12 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0%, the weakest si...

  • 29-May-12 – Asia’s production down cycle - Updated Mon May 28, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Australia – Retail sales likely to have decelerated • South Africa – Consumption to support GDP growth in Q1 • Euro area – Eurostat business surveys to echo weak flash PMIs • Market focus • Asia’s production has been w...

  • 28-May-12 – The market is still short USD-AXJ - Updated Sun May 27, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Asian rates – Scope for a further bond rally amid risk aversion • China – Spot hits 2012 high amid new two-way variability • Germany – Wage increases have not yet affected inflation • Market focus • Flow data suggest real-m...

  • 21-May-12 – Asia’s slowdown - Updated Sun May 20, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Hong Kong – April CPI inflation likely remained unchanged at 4.9% y/y • Nigeria – We now expect the CBN to keep the MPR on hold this year • UK – Door left ajar for QE3 as inflation concerns diminish • Market focus • Q1 T...

  • 16-May-12 – Under pressure - Updated Tue May 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Q1 GDP likely improved, but not by much • Singapore – Q1 GDP likely to be revised up from earlier estimate • US – FOMC minutes to shine a light on the chances for further QE Market focus • The sell-off in IDR governm...

  • 15-May-12 – Relative value in Asia - Updated Mon May 14, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – A contraction in machinery orders is likely • UK – BoE’s Inflation Report to provide insight into the possibility of further QE • US – Consumer spending continues to expand Market focus • Asian bonds have underperfo...

  • 8-May-12 – Steady hands at Asian central banks - Updated Mon May 7, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Malaysia – Export and import growth likely slowed in March • Greece – Political crisis as pro-bailout parties fail to gain a majority • US – We anticipate sub-par performance for NFIB small business optimism Market focus ...

  • 01-May-12 – SEA outshines US in data surprises - Updated Mon April 30, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Thailand – BoT is expected to keep rates on hold • Euro area – Manufacturing PMI: no place to hide in the region, even not in Germany • US – ISM manufacturing may have had a timid start to Q2 Market focus • US downsi...

  • 27-Apr-12 – The canary in the coal mine - Updated Thu April 26, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Korea – Industrial production in negative territory • Taiwan – GDP growth to moderate in Q1 • US – Q1 GDP likely to disappoint Market focus • Australia’s money market is pricing in major RBA easing; a warning for the...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.