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  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...

  • Lebanon – Don’t bank on tourism - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The summer tourism season was even worse than expected • But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy • Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds ...

  • Iraq – Security situation worsens - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment • The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months • Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now ...

  • Bahrain – Oil is the focus - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics • Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again • Refinery output capacity should rise by 38% ...

  • Middle East and North Africa Focus – Adjusting to reality - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • Hydrocarbon-based economies are using their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies to reduce long-term risks. Oil importers are constrained by high domestic subsidy bills and weak investment; this is hampering econ...

  • Pakistan – SBP hikes policy rates by 50bps - Updated Mon September 16, 2013

    • SBP raises policy rates by 50bps at its 13 September meeting; timing surprises the market • Central bank highlights inflation’s sharp acceleration and the weak balance of payment position • SBP raises headline CPI projection for FY14 to 11-12%...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Mauritius – Growth remains sluggish - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • GDP growth in 2013 is likely to remain muted at around 3.5%, as the economy remains susceptible weak euro-area growth • Weakness in the tourism and manufacturing sectors is contributing to rising unemployment • Following a surprise 25bps cut to...

  • Africa overview – Brighter prospects ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China • African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...



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