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  • Lebanon – Don’t bank on tourism - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The summer tourism season was even worse than expected • But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy • Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds ...

  • Iraq – Security situation worsens - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment • The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months • Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now ...

  • Bahrain – Oil is the focus - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics • Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again • Refinery output capacity should rise by 38% ...

  • Middle East and North Africa Focus – Adjusting to reality - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • Hydrocarbon-based economies are using their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies to reduce long-term risks. Oil importers are constrained by high domestic subsidy bills and weak investment; this is hampering econ...

  • Pakistan – SBP hikes policy rates by 50bps - Updated Mon September 16, 2013

    • SBP raises policy rates by 50bps at its 13 September meeting; timing surprises the market • Central bank highlights inflation’s sharp acceleration and the weak balance of payment position • SBP raises headline CPI projection for FY14 to 11-12%...

  • Namibia – Positive outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth should remain strong in 2013, boosted by high government spending and low interest rates • An expansionary fiscal policy will continue to contribute to a widening fiscal deficit, estimated at 6.4% in 2013 • Deterioration in South African ...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Mauritius – Growth remains sluggish - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • GDP growth in 2013 is likely to remain muted at around 3.5%, as the economy remains susceptible weak euro-area growth • Weakness in the tourism and manufacturing sectors is contributing to rising unemployment • Following a surprise 25bps cut to...

  • Africa overview – Brighter prospects ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China • African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...

  • Sri Lanka – Pessimism is overdone - Updated Mon July 8, 2013

    • Stable FX reserves offset the impact of Moody’s sovereign outlook revision on Sri Lankan markets • Steady growth and lower inflation underpin our constructive outlook on Sri Lanka • Inflation is likely to pick up in Q4, but the absence of furthe...

  • Pakistan – FY14 budget to stimulate growth - Updated Thu June 13, 2013

    • The PMLN government’s first budget targets 4.4% growth and a 35% increase in investment spending • The FY14 deficit target is 6.3% of GDP, down from 8.8% in FY13, on higher taxes and subsidy cuts • The budget is in line with IMF requirements for...

  • Ghana – A less bearish outlook - Updated Tue May 14, 2013

    • BoG to announce measures to support the GHS around the time of the MPC decision tomorrow • Buy 3Y bonds at 18.50%, target: 17%, stop-loss: 19.25% • FX carry is attractive: with spot USD-GHS at 1.99 we maintain our 6M target of 2.03 (6M forward:...

  • Nigeria – Policy choices - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Despite a modest planned increase in 2013 spending, budget oil-revenue assumptions are still optimistic • Augmentation of revenue from Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account is still possible • Calls for greater monetary easing, given near-term growth c...

  • Uganda – A slow recovery - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013 • Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014 • Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away ...

  • Zambia – More regulatory change - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Despite tightening measures, pressure on the currency has persisted • Planned Bank of Zambia Act to allow the central bank to monitor and better regulate current account transactions • Exporters may be required to remit earnings back to Zambia ...

  • SC FIRST – Low-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term • Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls • Investors should keep exposure to...

  • Ghana – Ghana raises fuel prices - Updated Mon February 18, 2013

    • Ghana announces substantial cuts to domestic fuel subsidies • The move follows a 2012 fiscal deficit of 12.1% and Fitch’s revision of Ghana’s rating outlook to negative • Further fiscal reforms are needed to reassure investors • We update our U...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.