Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve
• Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil
• October fund allocations reflect ...
• The summer tourism season was even worse than expected
• But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy
• Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds
• We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment
• The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months
• Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now
• The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics
• Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again
• Refinery output capacity should rise by 38%
• Hydrocarbon-based economies are using their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies to reduce long-term risks. Oil importers are constrained by high domestic subsidy bills and weak investment; this is hampering econ...
• Strong growth momentum to remain
• Higher twin deficits on the back of higher investment
• Political uncertainty has increased...
• SBP raises policy rates by 50bps at its 13 September meeting; timing surprises the market
• Central bank highlights inflation’s sharp acceleration and the weak balance of payment position
• SBP raises headline CPI projection for FY14 to 11-12%...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
• Growth should remain strong in 2013, boosted by high government spending and low interest rates
• An expansionary fiscal policy will continue to contribute to a widening fiscal deficit, estimated at 6.4% in 2013
• Deterioration in South African ...
• GDP growth in 2013 is likely to remain muted at around 3.5%, as the economy remains susceptible weak euro-area growth
• Weakness in the tourism and manufacturing sectors is contributing to rising unemployment
• Following a surprise 25bps cut to...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels.
• South Africa is more susceptible to glob...
• Stable FX reserves offset the impact of Moody’s sovereign outlook revision on Sri Lankan markets
• Steady growth and lower inflation underpin our constructive outlook on Sri Lanka
• Inflation is likely to pick up in Q4, but the absence of furthe...
• The PMLN government’s first budget targets 4.4% growth and a 35% increase in investment spending
• The FY14 deficit target is 6.3% of GDP, down from 8.8% in FY13, on higher taxes and subsidy cuts
• The budget is in line with IMF requirements for...
• BoG to announce measures to support the GHS around the time of the MPC decision tomorrow
• Buy 3Y bonds at 18.50%, target: 17%, stop-loss: 19.25%
• FX carry is attractive: with spot USD-GHS at 1.99 we maintain our 6M target of 2.03 (6M forward:...
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