• The summer tourism season was even worse than expected
• But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy
• Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds
• We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment
• The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months
• Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now
• The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics
• Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again
• Refinery output capacity should rise by 38%
• Hydrocarbon-based economies are using their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies to reduce long-term risks. Oil importers are constrained by high domestic subsidy bills and weak investment; this is hampering econ...
• Strong growth momentum to remain
• Higher twin deficits on the back of higher investment
• Political uncertainty has increased...
• SBP raises policy rates by 50bps at its 13 September meeting; timing surprises the market
• Central bank highlights inflation’s sharp acceleration and the weak balance of payment position
• SBP raises headline CPI projection for FY14 to 11-12%...
• Growth should remain strong in 2013, boosted by high government spending and low interest rates
• An expansionary fiscal policy will continue to contribute to a widening fiscal deficit, estimated at 6.4% in 2013
• Deterioration in South African ...
• Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in
• We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations
• We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...
• GDP growth in 2013 is likely to remain muted at around 3.5%, as the economy remains susceptible weak euro-area growth
• Weakness in the tourism and manufacturing sectors is contributing to rising unemployment
• Following a surprise 25bps cut to...
• Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China
• African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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