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  • Zambia – Focus on the presidential by-election - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Presidential by-election on 20 January will be a key near-term focus • Discussions on mining tax royalties and VAT refunds are likely to be deferred until after the election • ZMW may come under pressure as yields decline ...

  • Tanzania – Key elections in 2015 - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Constitutional referendum, elections make politics a key focus in 2015 • Donors postpone budget support; budget deficit likely to widen • USD-TZS upside pressure seen, despite capital-account liberalisation ...

  • Uganda – Oil impact is mixed - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Uganda will benefit from a lower import bill, but some oil exploration may be deferred • Government spending likely to increase ahead of 2016 elections • BoU seen tightening interest policy in 2015 in response to pressure on the UGX ...

  • Sierra Leone – Ebola to constrain growth - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Ramped-up infrastructure spending is expected to boost growth in 2015 • SOE debt is rising rapidly • We still expect the authorities to devalue the SLL. ...

  • Senegal – Ongoing fiscal consolidation - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth is likely to pick up but remain modest • Fiscal consolidation should remain a key objective • Senegal benefits from lower commodity prices ...

  • Namibia – Vulnerable to external conditions - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Infrastructure and mining-sector investment will help to drive growth of 4.9% in 2015 • Downside risks remain from lower commodity prices and a weaker ZAR • Following a clear election victory for SWAPO in December 2014, the political outlook rem...

  • Mozambique – Fiscal consolidation needed - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth outlook remains strong • Some fiscal consolidation is expected, but the deficit is likely to remain high • Frelimo wins the election, but loses ground ...

  • Mauritius – Growth is accelerating - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Diversification of trading partners and tourist arrivals away from Europe is supporting growth • Inflationary pressures will likely remain subdued in 2015 with lower commodity prices • The BoM will likely look to start tightening interest rates ...

  • Ghana – All eyes on an IMF programme - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • In the absence of an IMF deal, meeting external financing requirements may be more difficult • Plans for faster fiscal consolidation have been unveiled; spending will be closely scrutinised • Inflation is likely to rise faster in H1; the Bank of...

  • Gambia – Fiscal reforms expected to continue - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Tourism sector expected to be hit hard by Ebola fears but agricultural output may improve • Ongoing fiscal reforms will likely help narrow fiscal deficit • Debt overhang likely to constrain monetary policy, currency pressure to continue ...

  • Gabon – Time to adjust - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Lower oil prices likely mean that investment is sacrificed • Fiscal flexibility has been reduced • Gabon still has some room for manoeuvre in case of lower oil prices ...

  • Ethiopia – Faster growth; SOE debt worrying - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Ramped-up infrastructure spending is expected to boost growth in 2015 • SOE debt is rising rapidly • We still expect the authorities to devalue the ETB ...

  • Ivory Coast – Back, and here to stay - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Economic turnaround continues • More spending is expected in 2015, but the fiscal deficit should remain moderate • Political risk appears limited in the near term ...

  • Cameroon – Small steps, small changes - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Public investment is set to drive growth • Cameroon is exposed to lower oil prices, but less so than typical oil countries • Public finances face some risks ...

  • Botswana – Wanted: The ‘bling’ factor - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • We expect slightly softer GDP in 2015 on government efforts to rebuild financial reserves • Monetary easing is likely; tight banking-sector liquidity constrains credit growth • Opposition gains in parliament suggest a more contested political la...

  • Angola – Testing times - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Angola faces a challenging 2015 outlook • The fiscal deficit is set to widen significantly • The AOA is under pressure ...

  • Tunisia – Transition (almost) complete - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth is ready to pick up but dim European growth outlook might be a constraint • Reform agenda is ambitious but essential • Tunisia has so far managed its democratic transition, which should boost investor confidence ...

  • Morocco – Hard work pays off - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Strong focus on non-agricultural GDP will likely be the main growth driver • Morocco has had success with bold fiscal consolidation initiatives • Inclusive growth to alleviate unemployment will be crucial ...

  • Lebanon – War economy - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • We see a very mild growth pick-up on a benign security scenario • Fiscal consolidation is becoming urgent • Fragile environment is undermining the political process ...

  • Iraq – Fighting back - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Despite turmoil Iraq should continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace • Fiscal policy is an increasingly important potential area of risk • Politics remains Iraq’s main vulnerability ...



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