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  • Lebanon – Don’t bank on tourism - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The summer tourism season was even worse than expected • But banking deposits have shown renewed resilience, strengthening a pillar of the economy • Investors seem to remain sanguine about Lebanon bonds ...

  • Iraq – Security situation worsens - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment • The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months • Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now ...

  • Bahrain – Oil is the focus - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics • Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again • Refinery output capacity should rise by 38% ...

  • Middle East and North Africa Focus – Adjusting to reality - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • Hydrocarbon-based economies are using their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies to reduce long-term risks. Oil importers are constrained by high domestic subsidy bills and weak investment; this is hampering econ...

  • Nigeria – Policy choices - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Despite a modest planned increase in 2013 spending, budget oil-revenue assumptions are still optimistic • Augmentation of revenue from Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account is still possible • Calls for greater monetary easing, given near-term growth c...

  • Uganda – A slow recovery - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013 • Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014 • Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away ...

  • Zambia – More regulatory change - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Despite tightening measures, pressure on the currency has persisted • Planned Bank of Zambia Act to allow the central bank to monitor and better regulate current account transactions • Exporters may be required to remit earnings back to Zambia ...

  • 31-May-12 – Spain’s banks steal the Greek show - Updated Wed May 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI likely to slide, confirming the slowdown in manufacturing • Indonesia – Inflation to remain at moderate levels • South Korea – Benign inflation and sluggish trade flows to prevail Market focus • Spain illustrates...

  • 25-May-12 – Revisiting the value in vol - Updated Thu May 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Slow loan growth, but the cost of financing is falling • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely to drop • Thailand – Manufacturing production and trade to recover Market focus • Our call for reducing FX beta, raisi...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.