The approved energy reform is expected to have a significant impact on long-term growth
• In the short term, growth remains soft; we revise lower our 2014 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.8% prior
• Moderate growth and contained core inflation will l...
Our MFCI shows how much tighter conditions are since Q2-2012, mainly on the stronger MXN
• Banxico cut rates in April to curb MXN appreciation, and we think it will cut again
• Lower rates make sense both because of vast global liquidity, and weak...
We recently revised our Latam FX forecasts in the wake of the Fed’s QE3 policy announcement
• While QE has historically been positive for Latam currencies, we observe clear diminishing returns
• Regional central banks will fight USD weakness, exc...
Top 3 data/events
• Thailand – BoT to keep interest rates on hold
• Ghana – BoG expected to hike another 100bps
• United States – Small business to be range-bound in 2012
• Market focus
• The Greek elections on 17 June continue to pose a threa...
• Banxico delivered its much anticipated rate decision today, with the same type of announcement that has characterised its meetings for over three years: no change to the benchmark rate. Our call had been for no change, even though markets ...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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