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  • Mexico – Not quite there yet - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    The approved energy reform is expected to have a significant impact on long-term growth • In the short term, growth remains soft; we revise lower our 2014 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.8% prior • Moderate growth and contained core inflation will l...

  • Mexico – Another cut is on the cards - Updated Fri May 31, 2013

    Our MFCI shows how much tighter conditions are since Q2-2012, mainly on the stronger MXN • Banxico cut rates in April to curb MXN appreciation, and we think it will cut again • Lower rates make sense both because of vast global liquidity, and weak...

  • Latin American FX update - Updated Tue October 2, 2012

    We recently revised our Latam FX forecasts in the wake of the Fed’s QE3 policy announcement • While QE has historically been positive for Latam currencies, we observe clear diminishing returns • Regional central banks will fight USD weakness, exc...

  • 12-June-12 – Spectre of 17 June casts its shadow - Updated Mon June 11, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT to keep interest rates on hold • Ghana – BoG expected to hike another 100bps • United States – Small business to be range-bound in 2012 • Market focus • The Greek elections on 17 June continue to pose a threa...

  • Mexico – Banxico speaks: no change - Updated Fri April 27, 2012

    Event • Banxico delivered its much anticipated rate decision today, with the same type of announcement that has characterised its meetings for over three years: no change to the benchmark rate. Our call had been for no change, even though markets ...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.