• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
Latam headwinds include lower commodity prices, slowing global demand, and a stronger USD
• For Mexico, some of these risks are priced in; we now expect a 25bps Banxico hike in June
• Lower global yields are a near-term positive development for t...
The approved energy reform is expected to have a significant impact on long-term growth
• In the short term, growth remains soft; we revise lower our 2014 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.8% prior
• Moderate growth and contained core inflation will l...
Our MFCI shows how much tighter conditions are since Q2-2012, mainly on the stronger MXN
• Banxico cut rates in April to curb MXN appreciation, and we think it will cut again
• Lower rates make sense both because of vast global liquidity, and weak...
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