The approved energy reform is expected to have a significant impact on long-term growth
• In the short term, growth remains soft; we revise lower our 2014 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.8% prior
• Moderate growth and contained core inflation will l...
Our MFCI shows how much tighter conditions are since Q2-2012, mainly on the stronger MXN
• Banxico cut rates in April to curb MXN appreciation, and we think it will cut again
• Lower rates make sense both because of vast global liquidity, and weak...
Top 3 data/events
• Thailand – BoT to keep interest rates on hold
• Ghana – BoG expected to hike another 100bps
• United States – Small business to be range-bound in 2012
• Market focus
• The Greek elections on 17 June continue to pose a threa...
Top 3 key events and data
• China – Late-quarter slide in USD-CNY may bring April rebound
• Hong Kong – Retail sales likely remained resilient
• US – Durable goods progress endures
• Friday’s FX rebalancing will likely result in h...
• We examine which countries within the region would benefit from an oil shock
• Brazil will eventually benefit, due to the major discoveries in the pre-salt layers
• Chile would be the economy most negatively impacted by an increase in oil prices...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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