We think the COPOM will deliver a 50bps hike at its 15 January meeting, and end the cycle in February
• Elevated inflation, deteriorating fiscal accounts and the risk of a downgrade all call for a tougher BCB
• We recommend that investors open a J...
The CDI market is now pricing 260bps in rates hikes up to January 2016
• We believe the cycle will likely pause with a last 25bps hike on 26 November 2013
• Current futures positioning suggests investors broadly agree with a prolonged tightening ...
• We met with local investors and corporates in Brazil; the mood is very gloomy
• Policy makers seem to understand the urgency of addressing micro-inefficiencies
• We revise our end-Q3 USD-BRL forecast to 2.60 from 2.07, our August SELIC rate call...
Temporarily weaker oil output and a continued global slowdown will likely pressure the BoP in 2013
• External accounts should trough in 2013, with continued improvement from 2014 onwards
• By 2020, Brazil’s oil and derivatives production is set t...
Growth is still expected to improve in 2013; however, we revise lower our projection to 3.2% from 3.8%
• Inflation dynamics are worrisome, even though we expect headline IPCA to slow in H2-2013
• We think the BCB needs to hike rates; however, mark...
Growth will likely improve in 2013, but risks are to the downside; the supply-demand mismatch continues
• The government will seek alternative fiscal measures to manage inflation; BCB to avoid hiking in 2013
• We recommend a Jan-15 DI receiver pos...
Our meetings in Brazil left us with a less optimistic view on 2013 growth
• If GDP growth falters, we would not be surprised to see the SELIC rate fall further
• The BRL should continue to be range-bound in the near term
• We maintain our recomme...
We recently revised our Latam FX forecasts in the wake of the Fed’s QE3 policy announcement
• While QE has historically been positive for Latam currencies, we observe clear diminishing returns
• Regional central banks will fight USD weakness, exc...
Local investors show increased optimism about both external and domestic conditions
• Inflation is a source of uncertainty for 2013, rather than during 2012
• BCB tightly manages the BRL, which is expected to remain within the 2.00-2.10/USD range ...
Our base-case scenario shows supportive flows in both merchandise and financial accounts of the BoP
• Weaker global growth may hurt financial flows, but the outlook for FDI remains solid
• This is because Brazil has significant pent-up demand for...
If this is a public computer please consider checking this box carefully.
Please access our research via your Straight2Bank account
This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
About Standard Chartered
Group investor relations
Group media centre
WB media centre
Copyright © 2014 Standard Chartered Bank