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  • Brazil – Outlook and key themes for 2014 - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Economic indicators continue to disappoint. The latest figures show a poor performance for the third consecutive year. We expect 2014 to be similar. A weaker currency and a stronger global economy will likely boost external demand, while internal de...

  • Brazil – Doves, hawks and opportunists - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We think the COPOM will deliver a 50bps hike at its 15 January meeting, and end the cycle in February • Elevated inflation, deteriorating fiscal accounts and the risk of a downgrade all call for a tougher BCB • We recommend that investors open a J...

  • Brazil – Big risk premium priced into term structure - Updated Fri October 18, 2013

    The CDI market is now pricing 260bps in rates hikes up to January 2016 • We believe the cycle will likely pause with a last 25bps hike on 26 November 2013 • Current futures positioning suggests investors broadly agree with a prolonged tightening ...

  • Brazil – Life is not a beach anymore - Updated Tue August 20, 2013

    • We met with local investors and corporates in Brazil; the mood is very gloomy • Policy makers seem to understand the urgency of addressing micro-inefficiencies • We revise our end-Q3 USD-BRL forecast to 2.60 from 2.07, our August SELIC rate call...

  • Brazil – BoP: Rain today, sun tomorrow - Updated Tue May 21, 2013

    Temporarily weaker oil output and a continued global slowdown will likely pressure the BoP in 2013 • External accounts should trough in 2013, with continued improvement from 2014 onwards • By 2020, Brazil’s oil and derivatives production is set t...

  • Brazil – BCB soon to shift gears again - Updated Thu March 21, 2013

    Growth is still expected to improve in 2013; however, we revise lower our projection to 3.2% from 3.8% • Inflation dynamics are worrisome, even though we expect headline IPCA to slow in H2-2013 • We think the BCB needs to hike rates; however, mark...

  • Brazil – Pushing inflation management to the limit - Updated Fri February 8, 2013

    Growth will likely improve in 2013, but risks are to the downside; the supply-demand mismatch continues • The government will seek alternative fiscal measures to manage inflation; BCB to avoid hiking in 2013 • We recommend a Jan-15 DI receiver pos...

  • Brazil – COPOM may not be done - Updated Tue November 6, 2012

    Our meetings in Brazil left us with a less optimistic view on 2013 growth • If GDP growth falters, we would not be surprised to see the SELIC rate fall further • The BRL should continue to be range-bound in the near term • We maintain our recomme...

  • Latin American FX update - Updated Tue October 2, 2012

    We recently revised our Latam FX forecasts in the wake of the Fed’s QE3 policy announcement • While QE has historically been positive for Latam currencies, we observe clear diminishing returns • Regional central banks will fight USD weakness, exc...

  • Brazil – Growth recovery gaining traction - Updated Wed August 29, 2012

    Local investors show increased optimism about both external and domestic conditions • Inflation is a source of uncertainty for 2013, rather than during 2012 • BCB tightly manages the BRL, which is expected to remain within the 2.00-2.10/USD range ...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.