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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • Brazil – Keeping the lights on [Correction] - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 12 February 2015. Page 1, corrects • Rising risks of mandatory electricity rationing could have severe implications on the economy • Even without rationing, we now expect zero economic growth in 2015 • If rationi...

  • Positive picks in Latam - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    Latam headwinds include lower commodity prices, slowing global demand, and a stronger USD • For Mexico, some of these risks are priced in; we now expect a 25bps Banxico hike in June • Lower global yields are a near-term positive development for t...

  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...

  • Brazil – Ain’t no SELIC high enough - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    The COPOM minutes shows the BCB mainly responded to a weaker BRL • We expect the COPOM to tighten at least another 100bps in consecutive 25bps hikes • More disappointing signals on the fiscal front could generate a longer and/or steeper hiking cy...

  • SC FIRST – Structural flows favour Asia - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds • Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia • Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...

  • Brazil – Same record, different tune? - Updated Mon October 27, 2014

    Dilma returned to office by the narrowest margin in the post-war era • Local market sentiment remains weak but FX positioning suggests that investors were prepared • Dilma’s next finance minister appointment will be critical in stabilising market ...

  • Brazil: Presidential election preview - Updated Wed October 1, 2014

    First-round voting on 5 October may not produce a winner; a second-round vote is likely on 26 October • President Dilma has retaken the lead in recent polls and the BRL remains the regional underperformer • Marina’s inability to consolidate early ...

  • SC FIRST – Brazil: Every cloud has a Silva lining - Updated Fri September 26, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt • Allocations moved towards Brazil in August on Marina Silva, a catalyst for change; now Dilma fights back • Brazil’s subsequent underperformance makes it cheap and positioning is not skew...

  • Brazil – Chance for change - Updated Wed August 27, 2014

    Eduardo Campos’ (PSB) death has turned Brazil’s presidential elections upside down • Marina Silva’s confirmation as the PSB’s candidate has dramatically increased its chances of victory • We expect a positive market response to a Marina Silva wi...

  • Brazil – Outlook and key themes for 2014 - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • We recently revised our 2014 GDP growth forecast down to 1.8%, and our IPCA projection up to 6.3% • But our growth forecast remains above-consensus, as we expect a boost from global growth • The BCB is done, for now; we expect more hikes after t...

  • Brazil – Outlook and key themes for 2014 - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Economic indicators continue to disappoint. The latest figures show a poor performance for the third consecutive year. We expect 2014 to be similar. A weaker currency and a stronger global economy will likely boost external demand, while internal de...

  • Brazil – Doves, hawks and opportunists - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We think the COPOM will deliver a 50bps hike at its 15 January meeting, and end the cycle in February • Elevated inflation, deteriorating fiscal accounts and the risk of a downgrade all call for a tougher BCB • We recommend that investors open a J...

  • Brazil – Big risk premium priced into term structure - Updated Fri October 18, 2013

    The CDI market is now pricing 260bps in rates hikes up to January 2016 • We believe the cycle will likely pause with a last 25bps hike on 26 November 2013 • Current futures positioning suggests investors broadly agree with a prolonged tightening ...

  • Brazil – Life is not a beach anymore - Updated Tue August 20, 2013

    • We met with local investors and corporates in Brazil; the mood is very gloomy • Policy makers seem to understand the urgency of addressing micro-inefficiencies • We revise our end-Q3 USD-BRL forecast to 2.60 from 2.07, our August SELIC rate call...

  • Brazil – BoP: Rain today, sun tomorrow - Updated Tue May 21, 2013

    Temporarily weaker oil output and a continued global slowdown will likely pressure the BoP in 2013 • External accounts should trough in 2013, with continued improvement from 2014 onwards • By 2020, Brazil’s oil and derivatives production is set t...



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