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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • Brazil – Keeping the lights on [Correction] - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 12 February 2015. Page 1, corrects • Rising risks of mandatory electricity rationing could have severe implications on the economy • Even without rationing, we now expect zero economic growth in 2015 • If rationi...

  • Positive picks in Latam - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    Latam headwinds include lower commodity prices, slowing global demand, and a stronger USD • For Mexico, some of these risks are priced in; we now expect a 25bps Banxico hike in June • Lower global yields are a near-term positive development for t...

  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...

  • Brazil – Ain’t no SELIC high enough - Updated Thu November 6, 2014

    The COPOM minutes shows the BCB mainly responded to a weaker BRL • We expect the COPOM to tighten at least another 100bps in consecutive 25bps hikes • More disappointing signals on the fiscal front could generate a longer and/or steeper hiking cy...

  • SC FIRST – Structural flows favour Asia - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds • Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia • Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...

  • Brazil – Same record, different tune? - Updated Mon October 27, 2014

    Dilma returned to office by the narrowest margin in the post-war era • Local market sentiment remains weak but FX positioning suggests that investors were prepared • Dilma’s next finance minister appointment will be critical in stabilising market ...

  • Brazil: Presidential election preview - Updated Wed October 1, 2014

    First-round voting on 5 October may not produce a winner; a second-round vote is likely on 26 October • President Dilma has retaken the lead in recent polls and the BRL remains the regional underperformer • Marina’s inability to consolidate early ...

  • SC FIRST – Brazil: Every cloud has a Silva lining - Updated Fri September 26, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt • Allocations moved towards Brazil in August on Marina Silva, a catalyst for change; now Dilma fights back • Brazil’s subsequent underperformance makes it cheap and positioning is not skew...

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