• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve
• Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil
• October fund allocations reflect ...
Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds
• Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia
• Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...
We think the COPOM will deliver a 50bps hike at its 15 January meeting, and end the cycle in February
• Elevated inflation, deteriorating fiscal accounts and the risk of a downgrade all call for a tougher BCB
• We recommend that investors open a J...
• Brazil has removed the IOF to encourage debt portfolio inflows and slow the pace of BRL weakening
• Using our unique SC FIRST framework, we estimate the potential eventual impact of the removal at up to USD 30bn
• IOF implementation had a clear ...
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