Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve
• Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil
• October fund allocations reflect ...
Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds
• Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia
• Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...
We think the COPOM will deliver a 50bps hike at its 15 January meeting, and end the cycle in February
• Elevated inflation, deteriorating fiscal accounts and the risk of a downgrade all call for a tougher BCB
• We recommend that investors open a J...
• Brazil has removed the IOF to encourage debt portfolio inflows and slow the pace of BRL weakening
• Using our unique SC FIRST framework, we estimate the potential eventual impact of the removal at up to USD 30bn
• IOF implementation had a clear ...
Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term
• Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls
• Investors should keep exposure to...
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