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  • Brazil – Doves, hawks and opportunists - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We think the COPOM will deliver a 50bps hike at its 15 January meeting, and end the cycle in February • Elevated inflation, deteriorating fiscal accounts and the risk of a downgrade all call for a tougher BCB • We recommend that investors open a J...

  • Brazil – Assessing the impact of IOF removal - Updated Wed June 5, 2013

    • Brazil has removed the IOF to encourage debt portfolio inflows and slow the pace of BRL weakening • Using our unique SC FIRST framework, we estimate the potential eventual impact of the removal at up to USD 30bn • IOF implementation had a clear ...

  • SC FIRST – Low-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term • Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls • Investors should keep exposure to...

  • 16-Jul-12 – Hot summer, cold turkey - Updated Sun July 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth expected to be moderate • Germany – ZEW survey to point to weaker sentiment • United States – Maintain pay 5Y swap spread position • Market focus • We believe that hopes of further QE are optimistic ...

  • 25-Jun-12 – Moody’s ups the heat on Europe - Updated Sun June 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth • Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds • Market focus • The Moody’s...

  • 13-June-12 – Firmer ground for the RBI to cut rates - Updated Tue June 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2012 • Euro area – Chancellor Merkel to outline her stance ahead of the G20 meeting • US – We forecast weaker-than-consensus May retail sales • Market foc...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.