• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
The breadth of the USD rally could have further to run; we close our short USD-BRL position
• Expectations for a hawkish BCB have diminished in recent weeks, despite still-high inflation
• The BRL’s carry remains attractive; we await better level...
In a carry-driven environment, the BRL should outperform in coming quarters
• The start of a central-banking tightening cycle further strengthens the BRL outlook
• Current BRL levels compare favourably to historical valuations and positioning is c...
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