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  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...

  • SC FIRST – Structural flows favour Asia - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds • Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia • Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...

  • SC FIRST – Brazil: Every cloud has a Silva lining - Updated Fri September 26, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt • Allocations moved towards Brazil in August on Marina Silva, a catalyst for change; now Dilma fights back • Brazil’s subsequent underperformance makes it cheap and positioning is not skew...

  • SC FIRST – Low-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term • Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls • Investors should keep exposure to...



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