• In an emergency meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) made a very strong move, raising all of the interest rates in its complicated monetary policy framework. The upper band of the corridor (O/N lending rate) was raise...
After August’s MPC meeting the CBRT made a policy U-turn; this was confirmed at the September meeting
• The central bank will focus on ‘interest rate stability’ and let the TRY fluctuate
• Investors continue to worry about widening deficits, CPI a...
• Recent events have exposed Turkey’s vulnerabilities, while diminishing its policy options
• We lower our 2013 GDP growth forecast, raise the interest rate forecasts and reassess the FX trajectory
• We do not envisage a ‘sudden halt’, but risks o...
Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term
• Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls
• Investors should keep exposure to...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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