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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • Turkey – Same but different - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • GDP growth will likely accelerate on a more favourable external environment • Conservative fiscal policy remains the strongest credit support • Conflict in Syria could jeopardise the peace process with the Kurds ...

  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...

  • SC FIRST – Structural flows favour Asia - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds • Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia • Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...

  • SC FIRST – Brazil: Every cloud has a Silva lining - Updated Fri September 26, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt • Allocations moved towards Brazil in August on Marina Silva, a catalyst for change; now Dilma fights back • Brazil’s subsequent underperformance makes it cheap and positioning is not skew...

  • 07-Jul – Commodities: Rise of the fundamentals - Updated Sun July 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation pressure remains muted • Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May • United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May Market focus • Positioning for uneven and slug...

  • Sell USD-TRY in 6M forwards - Updated Tue July 1, 2014

    Recent TRY weakness on geopolitical concerns creates a selling opportunity in USD-TRY • The foundations of TRY’s medium-term outperformance relative to other high-beta EM FX remain in place • Sell USD-TRY 6M forward, entry 2.1960 (spot 2.1180), ta...

  • CBRT makes an about-face - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    Event • In an emergency meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) made a very strong move, raising all of the interest rates in its complicated monetary policy framework. The upper band of the corridor (O/N lending rate) was raise...

  • Turkey – Monetary policy U-turn confirmed - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    After August’s MPC meeting the CBRT made a policy U-turn; this was confirmed at the September meeting • The central bank will focus on ‘interest rate stability’ and let the TRY fluctuate • Investors continue to worry about widening deficits, CPI a...

  • Turkey – The day after - Updated Mon July 22, 2013

    • Recent events have exposed Turkey’s vulnerabilities, while diminishing its policy options • We lower our 2013 GDP growth forecast, raise the interest rate forecasts and reassess the FX trajectory • We do not envisage a ‘sudden halt’, but risks o...

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