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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • ZAR – Near-term concerns, medium-term value - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    USD-ZAR likely to see further upside in Q2; we raise our 2015 FX forecasts, still anticipating a Q2 peak • In line with our new FX forecasts, we downgrade our short-term FX weighting on the ZAR to Neutral • We upgrade our medium-term ZAR FX weigh...

  • South Africa – Some reprieve - Updated Fri December 12, 2014

    • Growth remains weak – lower price of imported oil to provide some reprieve • Politics will remain key to labour relations and of wage negotiations • Debt ratios to peak at a high level, signalling ongoing vulnerability ...

  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...

  • ZAR – All change! - Updated Thu November 20, 2014

    SARB shifts balance of risks on inflation; lower oil prices offset persistent domestic pressures • Post-strike production volumes of platinum-group metals are rising, boosting overall export revenues • Sharp oil-price fall in October outstrips p...

  • SC FIRST – Structural flows favour Asia - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds • Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia • Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...

  • South Africa – Hard times - Updated Fri October 17, 2014

    • We revise down our South Africa 2014 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% • Amid the threat to bank ratings, credit conditions are tightening; household deleveraging persists • Weak growth and Eskom support package are likely to delay fiscal consolidatio...

  • SC FIRST – Brazil: Every cloud has a Silva lining - Updated Fri September 26, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt • Allocations moved towards Brazil in August on Marina Silva, a catalyst for change; now Dilma fights back • Brazil’s subsequent underperformance makes it cheap and positioning is not skew...

  • South Africa – Some positives from the budget - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    We give our initial reaction to the budget – there are some positives for local markets • The Treasury targets faster fiscal consolidation for the current year and the medium term • Delivery risk will be linked both to the external environment a...

  • SARB raises repo rate 50bps to 5.5% - Updated Wed January 29, 2014

    Event • The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has raised its repo rate by 50bps to 5.5% for the first time since the 2008-09 global economic crisis. Although there was a modest downward adjustment of growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015, revised SAR...

  • South Africa – Vulnerable on many counts - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Weaker momentum in the domestic economy and a still-sluggish external environment suggest softer growth. We cut our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, from 2.7% previously • Given a substantial negative output gap, South African interest rates are...

  • Africa – Local markets outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Local fundamentals are likely to prevail now that some element of an early tapering of QE is priced in • We remain Overweight FX and duration on Nigeria on supportive fundamentals and valuations • We also maintain an Overweight duration stance o...

  • Namibia – Positive outlook - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth should remain strong in 2013, boosted by high government spending and low interest rates • An expansionary fiscal policy will continue to contribute to a widening fiscal deficit, estimated at 6.4% in 2013 • Deterioration in South African ...

  • Africa overview – Brighter prospects ahead - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    • Growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely positive, despite uncertainty related to Fed tapering expectations and slowing trend growth in China • African economies will not be impacted uniformly by a reduction in QE. More liquid marke...

  • Africa Focus - A wealth of diversity - Updated Wed July 10, 2013

    • Prospects in the Sub-Saharan African region remain largely positive, despite uncertainty related to market expectations of Fed tapering, and a slowdown in China’s growth trend to more sustainable levels. • South Africa is more susceptible to glob...

  • South Africa – Why we still like rates and not the rand - Updated Thu May 23, 2013

    • We expect the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold today; we see a 30-40% chance of a cut • A 50bps cut would not change our market view: Overweight ZAR rates, Underweight ZAR FX • We stay Underweight on FX as risks from the mining sector and the...



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