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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • Canada – BoC cuts rates to cushion oil shock - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    The BoC surprised with a 25bps rate cut; an earlier move than we predicted • We think Canada’s GDP growth and inflation could come under more pressure than the BoC expects • More cuts will be needed, in our view; we expect another 25bps cut in Mar...

  • CAD – The commodity come-down - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    Lower oil prices will drive Canada into recession in Q2; we expect rates to fall to 0.25% this year • On both a historical and comparative basis, CAD is underpricing lower oil, suggesting a catch-up period • Valuation suggests CAD is on the othe...

  • 18-Aug – Waiting for Jackson Hole [Correction] - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item. • Top 3 data/events • China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July • UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July • US – We expect a moderate reco...

  • 04-Aug – HKD in focus - Updated Sun August 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • G10 FX – Forecast changes to USD-CAD and USD-CHF • Australia – RBA will likely reiterate the need for a ‘period of stable rates’ • India – RBI likely to maintain its vigil on inflation • Market focus • We estimate capital i...

  • Canada – Going north, gradually - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    We revise up our forecast for Canada’s GDP growth to 2.2% y/y for 2014 • We now see inflation rising to 1.4% for 2014, 0.2ppt down from our prior estimate • We expect the BoC to hike its policy rate in Q4-2015, one quarter earlier than previously ...

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