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  • Buy AUD-NZD - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    • AUD-NZD looks set for a sharp corrective rebound as shifting terms of trade catch the market long NZD • Most NZD good news is priced in; AUD shorts are vulnerable to the improving Australian trade balance • We recommend buying AUD-NZD via 3M f...

  • SC IMM: Positioning risks show AUD ‘Buy’ signal - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    Our SC IMM positioning heatmap suggests AUD may see a major short-term rally • Leveraged net shorts in the AUD vs. the USD, EUR, GBP and NZD reach sample extremes • Leveraged funds should buy 1M EUR-AUD, GBP-AUD put spreads...

  • 28-Jun – Enjoy it while it lasts - Updated Thu June 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI is on a weakening trend • Japan – Q2 Tankan survey is likely to show continued improvement • NZD – Revised NZD-USD forecasts • Market focus • EM local markets are likely to consolidate near-ter...

  • IMM report: Leveraged fund selling weighs on USD - Updated Mon July 30, 2012

    CFTC IMM positioning show net USD longs fell to over two-month lows of USD 20.44bn • Net shorts in the EUR and CHF remain the most stretched in outright and open interest terms • Weekly findings confirm bullish short-term flow signals for EUR, JP...

  • G10 FX forecast revisions and scenario analysis - Updated Mon May 28, 2012

    It now looks more likely than not that Greece will exit EMU • We revise our G10 FX forecasts, having conducted forecast distribution and scenario analysis • Leveraged funds: We recommend that leveraged funds buy 3M EUR-JPY 97/92 put spreads • Rea...

  • IMM Commitments of Traders report - Updated Mon May 21, 2012

    IMM positioning to 15 May shows net USD longs rising to four-year highs of USD 28.52bn • EUR-USD non-commercial account net shorts hit a new record high • Weekly findings confirm bearish short-term flow signals for EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD...

  • 10-May-12 – Sell in May… - Updated Wed May 9, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – March IIP likely slowed significantly • Malaysia – Central bank to keep rates on hold • Thailand – BoT will likely raise its 2012 GDP growth forecast Market focus • Asian currencies are correcting and have further t...

  • 25-Apr-12 – FOMC to hold firm - Updated Tue April 24, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • New Zealand – Rates to remain on hold • Singapore – March industrial production likely to have fallen into negative territory • South Korea – Q1 GDP likely to have accelerated on a q/q basis Market focus • Bernanke i...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.