Our SC IMM positioning heatmap suggests AUD may see a major short-term rally
• Leveraged net shorts in the AUD vs. the USD, EUR, GBP and NZD reach sample extremes
• Leveraged funds should buy 1M EUR-AUD, GBP-AUD put spreads...
Top 3 data/events
• China – Manufacturing PMI is on a weakening trend
• Japan – Q2 Tankan survey is likely to show continued improvement
• NZD – Revised NZD-USD forecasts
• Market focus
• EM local markets are likely to consolidate near-ter...
CFTC IMM positioning show net USD longs fell to over two-month lows of USD 20.44bn
• Net shorts in the EUR and CHF remain the most stretched in outright and open interest terms
• Weekly findings confirm bullish short-term flow signals for EUR, JP...
It now looks more likely than not that Greece will exit EMU
• We revise our G10 FX forecasts, having conducted forecast distribution and scenario analysis
• Leveraged funds: We recommend that leveraged funds buy 3M EUR-JPY 97/92 put spreads
IMM positioning to 15 May shows net USD longs rising to four-year highs of USD 28.52bn
• EUR-USD non-commercial account net shorts hit a new record high
• Weekly findings confirm bearish short-term flow signals for EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD...
Top 3 data/events
• India – March IIP likely slowed significantly
• Malaysia – Central bank to keep rates on hold
• Thailand – BoT will likely raise its 2012 GDP growth forecast
• Asian currencies are correcting and have further t...
Top 3 key events and data
• New Zealand – Rates to remain on hold
• Singapore – March industrial production likely to have fallen into negative territory
• South Korea – Q1 GDP likely to have accelerated on a q/q basis
• Bernanke i...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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