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  • AUD – Comfortably high, for now - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    We revise our short-term AUD-USD forecasts higher on better data, a change in RBA stance, positioning • We expect AUD-USD to remain range-bound in H2 with offsetting factors in play • Leveraged funds: We recommend buying 1M AUD-USD call versus se...

  • Australia – A dovish RBA, but no more rate cuts - Updated Thu January 23, 2014

    We expect no further rate cuts by the RBA, but expect it to retain its easing bias • The improving US economy and monetary policy divergence will likely push the AUD lower • We maintain our bearish view on the AUD against a stronger USD and a dovi...

  • Australia – RBA to ease further; more expected in Q4 - Updated Wed July 31, 2013

    The RBA is likely to ease further; we expect a 25bps cut in August and another 25bps cut in December • Domestic data remains mixed; China’s slowdown will weigh on growth • Inflation is benign despite a mild uptick in Q2 and recent AUD depreciation...

  • Australia – RBA likely to cut again in June - Updated Wed May 29, 2013

    The RBA is likely to ease monetary policy further; we expect a 25bps cut as early as June • Domestic data has been mixed; further monetary impetus is essential to boost the economy • Inflation is benign and recent AUD-USD move lower is not an impe...

  • Australia – Reduced chance of RBA rate cut - Updated Tue July 31, 2012

    We now expect the RBA to stay put in August due to improved data and upbeat RBA comments • But benign inflation should provide the RBA the room to ease if needed, possibly by 25bps in Q4 • Beyond that, a rebound in China’s growth and Australia’s ...

  • 12-June-12 – Spectre of 17 June casts its shadow - Updated Mon June 11, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT to keep interest rates on hold • Ghana – BoG expected to hike another 100bps • United States – Small business to be range-bound in 2012 • Market focus • The Greek elections on 17 June continue to pose a threa...

  • Australia – RBA to stay dovish despite strong data - Updated Fri June 8, 2012

    Despite strong Q1 GDP and May labour-market reports, we still see the RBA staying dovish in Q3-2012 • We revise our RBA rate call, now calling for a total of 50bps more cuts in the coming months • Risk of AUD collapse mitigated by FX rebalancing o...

  • United States – Participation and unemployment - Updated Wed May 2, 2012

    • The trend in the participation rate is critical for the unemployment rate • We now expect less downward pressure on the unemployment rate from participation-rate declines • Payroll growth of 150,000 monthly, as we expect, will allow unemploymen...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.