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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • Australia – A slow but steady recovery on the cards - Updated Mon August 4, 2014

    We maintain our view that RBA will keep cash rate steady for now and maintain its accommodative policy • Market expectations have now shifted towards our view from six months ago, for a 25bps hike in Q1-2015 • We expect further weakness in the AUD...

  • 30-May – China exports amid the BRIC malaise - Updated Thu May 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth in the manufacturing sector was likely slow in May • South Korea – May export growth likely slowed due to the holidays • FX Trading Portfolio – We raise our AUD-NZD stop-loss level • Market focus • Trade repo...

  • 29-Apr – CNY: Assessing 2012 risks - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events 28 April 2014 • Japan – BoJ likely to stay put; industrial production likely rebounded • South Korea – IP backed by strong exports • Euro area – Rise in April CPI may alleviate policy-action pressure • Market focus • Ch...

  • 25-Apr – Banxico, BanRep dovish in their own ways - Updated Thu April 24, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • EM bonds – Impact of ELMI+ rebalancing should be limited • Japan – Retail sales likely continued to accelerate m/m in March • Taiwan – Leading index likely to show stronger growth in Q1 • Market focus • We expect Ba...

  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • AUD – Comfortably high, for now - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    We revise our short-term AUD-USD forecasts higher on better data, a change in RBA stance, positioning • We expect AUD-USD to remain range-bound in H2 with offsetting factors in play • Leveraged funds: We recommend buying 1M AUD-USD call versus se...

  • Australia – A dovish RBA, but no more rate cuts - Updated Thu January 23, 2014

    We expect no further rate cuts by the RBA, but expect it to retain its easing bias • The improving US economy and monetary policy divergence will likely push the AUD lower • We maintain our bearish view on the AUD against a stronger USD and a dovi...

  • Australia – RBA to ease further; more expected in Q4 - Updated Wed July 31, 2013

    The RBA is likely to ease further; we expect a 25bps cut in August and another 25bps cut in December • Domestic data remains mixed; China’s slowdown will weigh on growth • Inflation is benign despite a mild uptick in Q2 and recent AUD depreciation...

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