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  • JPY – The sun also rises - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    The JPY has strengthened against the G10 at the start of the year Fundamentals and rate differentials should ultimately support JPY weakness JPY correlation to equities suggests its gains are temporary We reiterate our positive view on USD-JPY an...

  • The dollar rally – Trading like it’s 1998 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    • The USD rally, driven by divergence, is looking increasingly like that of the second half of the 1990s • The Fed’s measures for the USD TWI suggest valuation remains favourable and it may have further to go • However, there are important differe...

  • What Korean and Japanese clients think - Updated Mon November 17, 2014

    Korean clients were more concerned about Korea’s long-term growth prospects and competitiveness • Japanese clients were more pessimistic about ‘Abenomics’, notably with consumption tax hike looming • Both sets of clients had a benign view of the U...

  • 14-Nov – Abenomics put to a vote? [Correction] - Updated Fri November 14, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table. • Top 3 data/events • Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum • Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month • United States ...

  • SCTF – Corporate flow suggests lower JPY-KRW - Updated Thu November 13, 2014

    • G10: Corporates turned large buyers of USD vs. AUD in October; custodians increased USD-CHF shorts • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients reduced longs in USD-IDR • Africa: SCTF Corporate Position Index shows that our clien...

  • Korea vs Japan – The impact of JPY weakness - Updated Tue October 21, 2014

    • The policy response by the Korean authorities to KRW weakness should keep USD-KRW supported • Limited short-term macro impact of JPY weakness on Korea, but prolonged impact is more significant • We revise USD-KRW forecasts higher and forecast ...

  • 14-Oct – BoK likely to hold and wait - Updated Mon October 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events China – Inflationary pressure likely remained subdued Philippines – Global influences weigh on remittance growth UK – Unemployment likely continued trending lower in August Market focus We expect the BoK to keep the base rat...

  • Currency wars take centre stage - Updated Wed October 8, 2014

    The ‘currency wars’ began in the US, and have since moved across the G10 • With the ECB weakening the EUR, the euro area and Japan are now exporting deflation to EM • We appear to be seeing the start of an official AXJ response, suggesting AXJ FX ...

  • Buy USD-JPY via 3M forward outright - Updated Thu September 18, 2014

    Post-FOMC, US yields will likely rise into year-end, supporting USD-JPY While JPY weakness in 2012-13 was Japan-led, this leg is US-driven We recommend buying USD-JPY via 3M forward outright, targeting 113...

  • 18-Aug – Waiting for Jackson Hole [Correction] - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item. • Top 3 data/events • China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July • UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July • US – We expect a moderate reco...

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