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  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-JPY buyers in April • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-KRW sellers • Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR • SC...

  • Japan – BoJ keeps policy unchanged - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board kept its ‘quantitative and qualitative monetary easing’ (QQE) programme unchanged at JPY 80tn of annual asset purchases at its 30 April monetary policy meeting. We had expected an expansion of QQE at the meeting...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Thu April 23, 2015

    • G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-CAD sellers in March • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-IDR buyers • Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR • ...

  • EM-21: Rising FX reserves and a rising USD [Correction] - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment. Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...

  • Investor sentiment in Tokyo is optimistic - Updated Fri March 27, 2015

    Japanese investors are bullish on Japan • Local optimism is being expressed through equities, not FX • Institutional and retail positions in USD-JPY have been significantly reduced • Japanese investors and corporates continue to move capital ove...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for USD-KRW, JPY-KRW - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    G10: Custodian clients turned net buyers of USD-CAD in February Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net buyers of USD-THB Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR SCTF ...

  • JPY – The sun also rises - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    The JPY has strengthened against the G10 at the start of the year Fundamentals and rate differentials should ultimately support JPY weakness JPY correlation to equities suggests its gains are temporary We reiterate our positive view on USD-JPY an...

  • The dollar rally – Trading like it’s 1998 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    • The USD rally, driven by divergence, is looking increasingly like that of the second half of the 1990s • The Fed’s measures for the USD TWI suggest valuation remains favourable and it may have further to go • However, there are important differe...

  • What Korean and Japanese clients think - Updated Mon November 17, 2014

    Korean clients were more concerned about Korea’s long-term growth prospects and competitiveness • Japanese clients were more pessimistic about ‘Abenomics’, notably with consumption tax hike looming • Both sets of clients had a benign view of the U...

  • 14-Nov – Abenomics put to a vote? [Correction] - Updated Fri November 14, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table. • Top 3 data/events • Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum • Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month • United States ...

  • SCTF – Corporate flow suggests lower JPY-KRW - Updated Thu November 13, 2014

    • G10: Corporates turned large buyers of USD vs. AUD in October; custodians increased USD-CHF shorts • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients reduced longs in USD-IDR • Africa: SCTF Corporate Position Index shows that our clien...

  • Korea vs Japan – The impact of JPY weakness - Updated Tue October 21, 2014

    • The policy response by the Korean authorities to KRW weakness should keep USD-KRW supported • Limited short-term macro impact of JPY weakness on Korea, but prolonged impact is more significant • We revise USD-KRW forecasts higher and forecast ...

  • 14-Oct – BoK likely to hold and wait - Updated Mon October 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events China – Inflationary pressure likely remained subdued Philippines – Global influences weigh on remittance growth UK – Unemployment likely continued trending lower in August Market focus We expect the BoK to keep the base rat...

  • Currency wars take centre stage - Updated Wed October 8, 2014

    The ‘currency wars’ began in the US, and have since moved across the G10 • With the ECB weakening the EUR, the euro area and Japan are now exporting deflation to EM • We appear to be seeing the start of an official AXJ response, suggesting AXJ FX ...

  • Buy USD-JPY via 3M forward outright - Updated Thu September 18, 2014

    Post-FOMC, US yields will likely rise into year-end, supporting USD-JPY While JPY weakness in 2012-13 was Japan-led, this leg is US-driven We recommend buying USD-JPY via 3M forward outright, targeting 113...

  • 18-Aug – Waiting for Jackson Hole [Correction] - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item. • Top 3 data/events • China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July • UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July • US – We expect a moderate reco...

  • Trade idea – USD-JPY 2M/6M calendar call spreads - Updated Fri August 1, 2014

    USD-JPY spot and front-end vol have moved higher, but we expect range-trading to persist near-term • Fundamentals, technicals and flows point to an upside breakout in USD-JPY later rather than sooner • We recommend selling 2M 105 USD calls/JPY put...



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