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  • JPY – A gathering storm - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • We highlight increasing downside risks to USD-JPY in the near term; expect a pick-up in JPY volatility • The Bank of Japan appears comfortably sidelined for now even as domestic data hits a soft patch • We revise our short-term USD-JPY forecas...

  • Japan – Kurodanomics ‘works’ again - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    • The BoJ surprised the market by expanding its current loan-support programme • We do not think the BoJ is likely to roll out any fresh easing in the near term • Reform implementation remains critical for Japan’s revival...

  • FX volatility – Identifying patterns in slopes (1) - Updated Fri February 14, 2014

    • We investigate volatility slopes for EUR-USD, GBP-USD, EUR-JPY and USD-JPY • We find similar statistical profiles and mean-reverting properties across currency pairs • We find that on average the volatility slopes considered for these pairs mean...

  • SC IMM: Positioning risks show AUD ‘Buy’ signal - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    Our SC IMM positioning heatmap suggests AUD may see a major short-term rally • Leveraged net shorts in the AUD vs. the USD, EUR, GBP and NZD reach sample extremes • Leveraged funds should buy 1M EUR-AUD, GBP-AUD put spreads...

  • USD-JPY prepares for a breakout - Updated Wed September 4, 2013

    USD-JPY fundamental risks appear to be two-way, while technicals are turning higher • We expect USD-JPY to remain volatile and range-bound near-term, but turn higher into 2014 • Real money should stay Neutral on the JPY; leveraged funds should put...

  • 29-Aug – Moderate recovery likely continued in Japan - Updated Wed August 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Africa – We close our receiver on the 2Y swap • India – Apr-Jun 2013 GDP growth likely slipped further • US – Q2 GDP growth expected to be revised slightly up Market focus • Japan’s July data is likely to show a mode...

  • Close BRL-JPY - Updated Fri July 26, 2013

    The surging JPY triggers the stop in our long BRL-JPY position • While carry offers some cushion, failing to sustain the break above 45.00 points to more downside risks • We still believe the BRL will perform better in H2 on improving data, portfo...

  • Japan – Reform mandate in place - Updated Mon July 22, 2013

    The ruling LDP coalition wins a majority at the election and gains control of both houses of the Diet • The government’s top priority of boosting growth now heads the reform agenda • FX: We expect the USD-JPY and JPY crosses to remain in a range n...

  • Buy BRL-JPY - Updated Thu July 18, 2013

    With EM volatility stabilising, we see this as an opportunity to initiate long carry positions • We see the BRL as oversold, while the JPY could weaken again after Upper House elections • We recommend buying 3M BRL-JPY ...

  • A correction rather than a reversal - Updated Fri June 14, 2013

    Abe’s ‘third arrow’ was a major disappointment, exacerbating significant position liquidation • We have revised our USD-JPY forecasts lower, still anticipating more JPY weakness into 2014 • Leveraged funds: Sell 1M ATMF USD-JPY straddles or buy 2M...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.