This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment.
Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February
Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...
The USD has experienced a healthy correction on positioning and over-reaction to the FOMC
• A careful assessment of Fed comments on the USD shows they are relatively balanced
• The fundamental drivers of USD strength remain in place, while valuati...
Japanese investors are bullish on Japan
• Local optimism is being expressed through equities, not FX
• Institutional and retail positions in USD-JPY have been significantly reduced
• Japanese investors and corporates continue to move capital ove...
• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
G10: Custodian clients turned net buyers of USD-CAD in February
Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net buyers of USD-THB
Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR
The JPY has strengthened against the G10 at the start of the year
Fundamentals and rate differentials should ultimately support JPY weakness
JPY correlation to equities suggests its gains are temporary
We reiterate our positive view on USD-JPY an...
• The USD rally, driven by divergence, is looking increasingly like that of the second half of the 1990s
• The Fed’s measures for the USD TWI suggest valuation remains favourable and it may have further to go
• However, there are important differe...
Korean clients were more concerned about Korea’s long-term growth prospects and competitiveness
• Japanese clients were more pessimistic about ‘Abenomics’, notably with consumption tax hike looming
• Both sets of clients had a benign view of the U...
This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table.
• Top 3 data/events
• Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum
• Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month
• United States ...
• G10: Corporates turned large buyers of USD vs. AUD in October; custodians increased USD-CHF shorts
• Asia: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients reduced longs in USD-IDR
• Africa: SCTF Corporate Position Index shows that our clien...
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