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  • EM-21: Rising FX reserves and a rising USD [Correction] - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment. Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...

  • Investor sentiment in Tokyo is optimistic - Updated Fri March 27, 2015

    Japanese investors are bullish on Japan • Local optimism is being expressed through equities, not FX • Institutional and retail positions in USD-JPY have been significantly reduced • Japanese investors and corporates continue to move capital ove...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for USD-KRW, JPY-KRW - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    G10: Custodian clients turned net buyers of USD-CAD in February Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net buyers of USD-THB Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR SCTF ...

  • JPY – The sun also rises - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    The JPY has strengthened against the G10 at the start of the year Fundamentals and rate differentials should ultimately support JPY weakness JPY correlation to equities suggests its gains are temporary We reiterate our positive view on USD-JPY an...

  • The dollar rally – Trading like it’s 1998 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    • The USD rally, driven by divergence, is looking increasingly like that of the second half of the 1990s • The Fed’s measures for the USD TWI suggest valuation remains favourable and it may have further to go • However, there are important differe...

  • What Korean and Japanese clients think - Updated Mon November 17, 2014

    Korean clients were more concerned about Korea’s long-term growth prospects and competitiveness • Japanese clients were more pessimistic about ‘Abenomics’, notably with consumption tax hike looming • Both sets of clients had a benign view of the U...

  • 14-Nov – Abenomics put to a vote? [Correction] - Updated Fri November 14, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table. • Top 3 data/events • Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum • Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month • United States ...

  • SCTF – Corporate flow suggests lower JPY-KRW - Updated Thu November 13, 2014

    • G10: Corporates turned large buyers of USD vs. AUD in October; custodians increased USD-CHF shorts • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients reduced longs in USD-IDR • Africa: SCTF Corporate Position Index shows that our clien...

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