The JPY has strengthened against the G10 at the start of the year
Fundamentals and rate differentials should ultimately support JPY weakness
JPY correlation to equities suggests its gains are temporary
We reiterate our positive view on USD-JPY an...
• The USD rally, driven by divergence, is looking increasingly like that of the second half of the 1990s
• The Fed’s measures for the USD TWI suggest valuation remains favourable and it may have further to go
• However, there are important differe...
Korean clients were more concerned about Korea’s long-term growth prospects and competitiveness
• Japanese clients were more pessimistic about ‘Abenomics’, notably with consumption tax hike looming
• Both sets of clients had a benign view of the U...
This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table.
• Top 3 data/events
• Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum
• Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month
• United States ...
• G10: Corporates turned large buyers of USD vs. AUD in October; custodians increased USD-CHF shorts
• Asia: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients reduced longs in USD-IDR
• Africa: SCTF Corporate Position Index shows that our clien...
• The policy response by the Korean authorities to KRW weakness should keep USD-KRW supported
• Limited short-term macro impact of JPY weakness on Korea, but prolonged impact is more significant
• We revise USD-KRW forecasts higher and forecast ...
Top 3 data/events
China – Inflationary pressure likely remained subdued
Philippines – Global influences weigh on remittance growth
UK – Unemployment likely continued trending lower in August
We expect the BoK to keep the base rat...
The ‘currency wars’ began in the US, and have since moved across the G10
• With the ECB weakening the EUR, the euro area and Japan are now exporting deflation to EM
• We appear to be seeing the start of an official AXJ response, suggesting AXJ FX ...
Post-FOMC, US yields will likely rise into year-end, supporting USD-JPY
While JPY weakness in 2012-13 was Japan-led, this leg is US-driven
We recommend buying USD-JPY via 3M forward outright, targeting 113...
This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item.
• Top 3 data/events
• China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July
• UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July
• US – We expect a moderate reco...
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