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  • 29-Aug – Moderate recovery likely continued in Japan - Updated Wed August 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Africa – We close our receiver on the 2Y swap • India – Apr-Jun 2013 GDP growth likely slipped further • US – Q2 GDP growth expected to be revised slightly up Market focus • Japan’s July data is likely to show a mode...

  • Japan – Reform mandate in place - Updated Mon July 22, 2013

    The ruling LDP coalition wins a majority at the election and gains control of both houses of the Diet • The government’s top priority of boosting growth now heads the reform agenda • FX: We expect the USD-JPY and JPY crosses to remain in a range n...

  • 19-Feb-13 – Words speak louder than actions - Updated Mon February 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – USD-MYR forecasts revised higher • Malaysia – Steady GDP growth and a benign inflationary environment • UK – Labour data to shift the focus from the BoE minutes Market focus • Markets may see the lack of mention ...

  • Japan – The LDP returns - Updated Mon December 17, 2012

    The LDP/Komeito coalition wins a two-thirds super-majority in the lower house election • We expect the BoJ to expand its Asset Purchase Program • We are structural JPY bears, looking for 84.00 in mid-2013, 87.00 at year-end...

  • 14-June-12 – Relative value in Asian local markets - Updated Wed June 13, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – No expected change in BoJ’s policy rate and asset purchases • Philippines – April should show healthy growth in remittances • United States – Headline weakness takes time to hit the core • Market focus • Investors s...

  • 31-May-12 – Spain’s banks steal the Greek show - Updated Wed May 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI likely to slide, confirming the slowdown in manufacturing • Indonesia – Inflation to remain at moderate levels • South Korea – Benign inflation and sluggish trade flows to prevail Market focus • Spain illustrates...

  • 30-May-12 – Another weak quarter for India - Updated Tue May 29, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • South Korea – Industrial production likely rose 1.0% m/m in April • Philippines – Resilient Q1 GDP • Brazil – COPOM in cutting mode, for now Market focus • India’s Q4-FY12 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0%, the weakest si...

  • 25-May-12 – Revisiting the value in vol - Updated Thu May 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Slow loan growth, but the cost of financing is falling • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely to drop • Thailand – Manufacturing production and trade to recover Market focus • Our call for reducing FX beta, raisi...

  • 24-May-12 – China leads the way - Updated Wed May 23, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – April industrial production likely rebounded • United States – Durable goods orders likely recovered in April • Brazil – BRL: Be careful what you wish for Market focus • China’s State Council’s statement signals ...

  • 23-May-12 – China wobbles, Asia trembles - Updated Tue May 22, 2012

    • Top 3 data/events • Chile – We revise up our USD-CLP forecast • South Africa – SARB seen on hold despite CPI move higher • Euro area – Flash PMI indices likely to signal Q2 GDP contraction • Market focus • Asia’s exports to China have slowe...

  • 22-May-12 – The eye of the storm - Updated Mon May 21, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put this week, but may signal further easing • Malaysia – Both GDP and inflation likely slowed • Taiwan – IP to remain soft due to slowing exports Market focus • Market expectations for Wednesda...

  • 21-May-12 – Asia’s slowdown - Updated Sun May 20, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Hong Kong – April CPI inflation likely remained unchanged at 4.9% y/y • Nigeria – We now expect the CBN to keep the MPR on hold this year • UK – Door left ajar for QE3 as inflation concerns diminish • Market focus • Q1 T...

  • 18-May-12 – The epic quest for growth (and money) - Updated Thu May 17, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Greece is in the spotlight at G8 Summit; concrete measures are unlikely • Taiwan – April export orders to rebound on improving tech outlook • Thailand – Weaker external demand to be a drag on Q1 GDP Market focus ...

  • United States – Participation and unemployment - Updated Wed May 2, 2012

    • The trend in the participation rate is critical for the unemployment rate • We now expect less downward pressure on the unemployment rate from participation-rate declines • Payroll growth of 150,000 monthly, as we expect, will allow unemploymen...

  • 26-Apr-12 – BoJ easing to disappoint USD-JPY bulls - Updated Wed April 25, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Japan – March industrial production should remain weak on a m/m basis • Thailand – MPI is likely to show a y/y contraction • Europe – Italy sells bills; Eurostat releases confidence surveys Market focus • BoJ likely ...

  • Japan – BoJ easing to disappoint USD-JPY bulls - Updated Wed April 25, 2012

    We expect the BoJ to increase its APP by JPY 5-10trn this week, but leave its CPI target unchanged • We expect the BoJ to raise its FY12 core CPI inflation target; we also revise our headline CPI forecasts • USD-JPY to retrace modestly lower on po...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.