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  • Japan – The LDP returns - Updated Mon December 17, 2012

    The LDP/Komeito coalition wins a two-thirds super-majority in the lower house election • We expect the BoJ to expand its Asset Purchase Program • We are structural JPY bears, looking for 84.00 in mid-2013, 87.00 at year-end...

  • 14-June-12 – Relative value in Asian local markets - Updated Wed June 13, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – No expected change in BoJ’s policy rate and asset purchases • Philippines – April should show healthy growth in remittances • United States – Headline weakness takes time to hit the core • Market focus • Investors s...

  • 31-May-12 – Spain’s banks steal the Greek show - Updated Wed May 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI likely to slide, confirming the slowdown in manufacturing • Indonesia – Inflation to remain at moderate levels • South Korea – Benign inflation and sluggish trade flows to prevail Market focus • Spain illustrates...

  • 30-May-12 – Another weak quarter for India - Updated Tue May 29, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • South Korea – Industrial production likely rose 1.0% m/m in April • Philippines – Resilient Q1 GDP • Brazil – COPOM in cutting mode, for now Market focus • India’s Q4-FY12 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0%, the weakest si...

  • 25-May-12 – Revisiting the value in vol - Updated Thu May 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Slow loan growth, but the cost of financing is falling • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely to drop • Thailand – Manufacturing production and trade to recover Market focus • Our call for reducing FX beta, raisi...

  • 24-May-12 – China leads the way - Updated Wed May 23, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – April industrial production likely rebounded • United States – Durable goods orders likely recovered in April • Brazil – BRL: Be careful what you wish for Market focus • China’s State Council’s statement signals ...

  • 23-May-12 – China wobbles, Asia trembles - Updated Tue May 22, 2012

    • Top 3 data/events • Chile – We revise up our USD-CLP forecast • South Africa – SARB seen on hold despite CPI move higher • Euro area – Flash PMI indices likely to signal Q2 GDP contraction • Market focus • Asia’s exports to China have slowe...

  • 22-May-12 – The eye of the storm - Updated Mon May 21, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put this week, but may signal further easing • Malaysia – Both GDP and inflation likely slowed • Taiwan – IP to remain soft due to slowing exports Market focus • Market expectations for Wednesda...

  • 21-May-12 – Asia’s slowdown - Updated Sun May 20, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Hong Kong – April CPI inflation likely remained unchanged at 4.9% y/y • Nigeria – We now expect the CBN to keep the MPR on hold this year • UK – Door left ajar for QE3 as inflation concerns diminish • Market focus • Q1 T...

  • 18-May-12 – The epic quest for growth (and money) - Updated Thu May 17, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Greece is in the spotlight at G8 Summit; concrete measures are unlikely • Taiwan – April export orders to rebound on improving tech outlook • Thailand – Weaker external demand to be a drag on Q1 GDP Market focus ...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.