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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for USD-KRW, JPY-KRW - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    G10: Custodian clients turned net buyers of USD-CAD in February Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net buyers of USD-THB Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR SCTF ...

  • 14-Nov – Abenomics put to a vote? [Correction] - Updated Fri November 14, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 14 November 2014. Page 1, corrects ‘Key data/events’ table. • Top 3 data/events • Japan – Q3 GDP likely reflects weak recovery momentum • Singapore – NODX likely grew for a third straight month • United States ...

  • SCTF – Corporate flow suggests lower JPY-KRW - Updated Thu November 13, 2014

    • G10: Corporates turned large buyers of USD vs. AUD in October; custodians increased USD-CHF shorts • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients reduced longs in USD-IDR • Africa: SCTF Corporate Position Index shows that our clien...

  • 14-Oct – BoK likely to hold and wait - Updated Mon October 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events China – Inflationary pressure likely remained subdued Philippines – Global influences weigh on remittance growth UK – Unemployment likely continued trending lower in August Market focus We expect the BoK to keep the base rat...

  • 18-Aug – Waiting for Jackson Hole [Correction] - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item. • Top 3 data/events • China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July • UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July • US – We expect a moderate reco...

  • FX volatility – Identifying patterns in slopes (1) - Updated Fri February 14, 2014

    • We investigate volatility slopes for EUR-USD, GBP-USD, EUR-JPY and USD-JPY • We find similar statistical profiles and mean-reverting properties across currency pairs • We find that on average the volatility slopes considered for these pairs mean...

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