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  • UK – Bullish BoE looks through oil-driven deflation - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    The BoE sees inflation above target by 2017 as wage pressures build, despite near-term deflation risks • We lower our 2015 inflation forecast, but see medium-term inflation risks triggering a rate hike in Q4-2015 • With a hung parliament increas...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...

  • UK – BoE signals no pre-election rate hike - Updated Wed November 12, 2014

    In a dovish Inflation Report, the BoE cut its inflation forecasts, signalling no rate hike until late 2015 • We push back our first-rate-hike expectation to Q3-2015 (previously Q1-2015), cut our inflation forecasts • We revise our GBP-USD forecast...

  • UK – Scotland votes to stay - Updated Fri September 19, 2014

    Scotland appears to have voted to stay in the UK; this should boost markets, but major issues remain • The UK faces ongoing political uncertainty ahead of the May 2015 general election, and slowing growth • FX implications: We expect an initial GB...

  • The Scotland referendum: Grasping the thistle - Updated Wed September 10, 2014

    You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Sarah Hewin, Head, UK and Europe Macro Research, London (host) • Callum Henderson, Head, FX Research, Singapore • Topics include: • Macroec...

  • The Scotland referendum: Grasping the thistle - Updated Mon September 8, 2014

    You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Sarah Hewin, Head, UK and Europe Macro Research, London (host) • Callum Henderson, Head, FX Research, Singapore • Topics include: • Macroec...

  • 20-Jun – Revising our GBP-USD forecasts - Updated Thu June 19, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Europe – New clearing banks set to boost RMB internationalisation • Taiwan – May IP, job data likely shows a recovery in growth momentum • Singapore – May inflation likely supported by private transport costs • Market focu...

  • UK – In the qualifying rounds, not yet the final - Updated Wed May 14, 2014

    The UK has edged closer to a rate hike, but recovery is still in its early stages and slack remains • The BoE still sees a rate hike a year away; we expect a move in Q1-2015 • Carney’s comments will likely slow the rise in Gilt yields; we see posi...

  • The Scotland referendum: Grasping the thistle - Updated Fri May 2, 2014

    An independent Scotland would be negative for UK trade, but positive for the UK’s fiscal position • GBP weakness on a ‘Yes’ would be temporary, but option vol looks cheap ahead of the referendum • The margin between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes narrowed ...

  • UK – Cut the slack - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    • Spare capacity is key for BoE policy makers: by Q4-2014, less slack in the labour market should trigger concerns over the medium-term inflation outlook • We expect a measured hiking path equivalent to 25bps each quarter from Q1-2015 through 2016 ...

  • UK – Cut the slack! - Updated Wed February 12, 2014

    The BoE drops its unemployment threshold and is now focusing on spare capacity and productivity • Economic slack could be eliminated by early 2015, with unemployment reaching equilibrium by late 2014 • We revise up our 2014-15 GDP forecast, cut 20...

  • UK – A voyage of discovery - Updated Mon October 28, 2013

    GDP growth is strong, but faster productivity growth should delay BoE rate hikes until 2016 • Supply-side constraints and higher CPI expectations are the key risks around the BoE’s rate trajectory • FX – The GBP is starting to look vulnerable to...

  • UK – BoE adopts policy thresholds – and knockouts - Updated Wed August 7, 2013

    The BoE’s 7% unemployment rate threshold is an ‘easily understood’ measure of slack in the economy • We revise up our GDP growth forecast, but see inflation low by 2015 and push rate hikes to H2-2016 • FX: GBP will now be more sensitive to UK empl...

  • Dead-cat bounce in the GBP - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    GBP weakness has accelerated in recent weeks as UK fundamentals continue to deteriorate • We expect additional easing from the BoE to weigh further on GBP while fiscal pressures build • We have lowered our GBP forecasts and downgraded our medium-t...



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