• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
The BoE sees inflation above target by 2017 as wage pressures build, despite near-term deflation risks
• We lower our 2015 inflation forecast, but see medium-term inflation risks triggering a rate hike in Q4-2015
• With a hung parliament increas...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
In a dovish Inflation Report, the BoE cut its inflation forecasts, signalling no rate hike until late 2015
• We push back our first-rate-hike expectation to Q3-2015 (previously Q1-2015), cut our inflation forecasts
• We revise our GBP-USD forecast...
Scotland appears to have voted to stay in the UK; this should boost markets, but major issues remain
• The UK faces ongoing political uncertainty ahead of the May 2015 general election, and slowing growth
• FX implications: We expect an initial GB...
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• Sarah Hewin, Head, UK and Europe Macro Research, London (host)
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• Topics include:
• Top 3 data/events
• Europe – New clearing banks set to boost RMB internationalisation
• Taiwan – May IP, job data likely shows a recovery in growth momentum
• Singapore – May inflation likely supported by private transport costs
• Market focu...
The UK has edged closer to a rate hike, but recovery is still in its early stages and slack remains
• The BoE still sees a rate hike a year away; we expect a move in Q1-2015
• Carney’s comments will likely slow the rise in Gilt yields; we see posi...
An independent Scotland would be negative for UK trade, but positive for the UK’s fiscal position
• GBP weakness on a ‘Yes’ would be temporary, but option vol looks cheap ahead of the referendum
• The margin between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes narrowed ...
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