• Spare capacity is key for BoE policy makers: by Q4-2014, less slack in the labour market should trigger concerns over the medium-term inflation outlook
• We expect a measured hiking path equivalent to 25bps each quarter from Q1-2015 through 2016
The BoE drops its unemployment threshold and is now focusing on spare capacity and productivity
• Economic slack could be eliminated by early 2015, with unemployment reaching equilibrium by late 2014
• We revise up our 2014-15 GDP forecast, cut 20...
GDP growth is strong, but faster productivity growth should delay BoE rate hikes until 2016
• Supply-side constraints and higher CPI expectations are the key risks around the BoE’s rate trajectory
• FX – The GBP is starting to look vulnerable to...
The BoE’s 7% unemployment rate threshold is an ‘easily understood’ measure of slack in the economy
• We revise up our GDP growth forecast, but see inflation low by 2015 and push rate hikes to H2-2016
• FX: GBP will now be more sensitive to UK empl...
GBP weakness has accelerated in recent weeks as UK fundamentals continue to deteriorate
• We expect additional easing from the BoE to weigh further on GBP while fiscal pressures build
• We have lowered our GBP forecasts and downgraded our medium-t...
The BoE warns that the UK faces above-target inflation and weak growth for a prolonged period
• Further policy easing looks likely to be delayed until the new governor takes over in Q3-2013
• Alternatives to QE may be favoured; there appears to b...
• As governor of the Bank of England from July 2013, Mark Carney is likely to face ongoing challenges
• UK rates look set to stay on hold long after the BoC starts to hike; we expect more QE will be needed
• FX – Expected policy continuity at both...
Top 3 data/events
• China – Slow loan growth, but the cost of financing is falling
• Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely to drop
• Thailand – Manufacturing production and trade to recover
• Our call for reducing FX beta, raisi...
Top 3 key events and data
• New Zealand – Rates to remain on hold
• Singapore – March industrial production likely to have fallen into negative territory
• South Korea – Q1 GDP likely to have accelerated on a q/q basis
• Bernanke i...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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