Top 3 data/events
• China – Inflation pressure remains muted
• Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May
• United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May
• Positioning for uneven and slug...
• Top 3 data/events 28 April 2014
• Japan – BoJ likely to stay put; industrial production likely rebounded
• South Korea – IP backed by strong exports
• Euro area – Rise in April CPI may alleviate policy-action pressure
• Market focus
• Singapore – PMI likely remained in contractionary territory
• Oil – Rising crude prices are likely to be reined in
• US – Lacklustre public-sector job data probably weighed on payrolls ...
QE3 is unlikely in July and better data by September should keep the Fed on hold
• A ‘fiscal cliff’ could trigger QE in 2013, but a ‘fiscal slope’ will not
• Currency – An unexpected dose of QE3 would be USD-negative, but other factors are at play...
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In this special edition of the Global Focus, we invite Toh Hsien Min, Global Head of Quantitative Optimisation, to re-run his model for the World Cup results. It correctly predicted in 2010 that Spain would win. This time around, it predicts that Brazil will lift the trophy in front of their home crowd.
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