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  • 25-Apr – Banxico, BanRep dovish in their own ways - Updated Thu April 24, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • EM bonds – Impact of ELMI+ rebalancing should be limited • Japan – Retail sales likely continued to accelerate m/m in March • Taiwan – Leading index likely to show stronger growth in Q1 • Market focus • We expect Ba...

  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • 18-Feb – No change in the PBoC’s policy stance - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – CPI inflation likely edged up further in January • UK – BoE minutes to echo Inflation Report as unemployment falls to 7% • South Africa – January CPI inflation a key focus • Market focus • Credit growth was...

  • CFA franc zone – The peg is here to stay - Updated Wed July 24, 2013

    We update our CFA franc barometer and find that there is little pressure for a devaluation at the moment • The euro-area crisis is unlikely to lead to a review of the current peg of the CFA franc to the EUR • Despite its shortcomings, the present ...

  • Euro area – ECB finally concedes a refi cut - Updated Thu May 2, 2013

    • The ECB cuts the refi rate by 25bps to a new low of 0.5%, as expected • A deposit-rate cut will be considered if required but, for now, such a move looks a low probability • The ECB will work with other institutions to kick-start the ABS market,...

  • Euro area – Dazed and confused ECB hints at action - Updated Thu April 4, 2013

    The ECB will ‘monitor very closely all incoming information in the coming weeks’ • Standard and non-standard measures are being considered; we expect action next month • Draghi warns that recovery is subject to downside risks...

  • 19-Mar – Damned if they do, damned if they don't - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Still-muted inflation is expected • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show ongoing revival in tech demand • US – Housing construction data to confirm its upward trend • Market focus • Cyprus ‘bail-in’ unnerves e...

  • EUR – Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Euro-area political stresses will refocus attention on what the ECB’s euro promise really means • Cyprus may represent a unique situation, but depositors around the euro area may be unnerved • We put our (bearish) end-Q1 and Q2 EUR-USD forecasts u...

  • Euro area – ECB: Draghi fires a warning shot on EUR - Updated Thu February 7, 2013

    • ECB rates remain unchanged; in our view, policy makers do not want market rates to rise at this stage • Draghi warns that EUR appreciation brings downside risks to inflation • Financial conditions have improved, yet the ECB continues to fret abo...

  • 01-Feb-13 – The euro and the currency wars - Updated Thu January 31, 2013

    • Singapore – PMI likely remained in contractionary territory • Oil – Rising crude prices are likely to be reined in • US – Lacklustre public-sector job data probably weighed on payrolls ...

  • Euro area – ECB sees ‘positive contagion’ - Updated Thu January 10, 2013

    The ECB keeps rates unchanged; we are pushing back our forecast of a 25bps refi rate cut to Q2-2013 • Upbeat financial markets are driving ‘positive contagion’, but economic risks remain to the downside • The jury is still out: in our view, politi...

  • Euro area – What to watch in 2013 - Updated Wed January 9, 2013

    The upturn in euro-area sentiment remains susceptible to a deterioration in politics in the region • But ECB and ESM backstops, plus upcoming German elections, limit near-term downside risks • Trade and budget imbalances are correcting, but a sti...

  • Euro area – Markets allow ECB to sit tight, for now - Updated Thu November 8, 2012

    The ECB expects growth momentum to remain weak in 2013 and is set to cut GDP forecasts next month • But unless financial-market conditions deteriorate, a rate cut looks unlikely this year • Governing Council reiterates it stands ready to activate ...

  • Japan – Further monetary easing likely by Q4 - Updated Tue September 18, 2012

    • BoJ is likely to keep its APP target at JPY 70trn in September, although it is a close call • Pressure is mounting on the BoJ to boost its monetary arsenal to support fading growth • Monetary easing by the Fed and ECB has raised the odds tha...

  • Euro area – Strong sirocco in south, drizzle in north - Updated Tue August 14, 2012

    Euro-area GDP contracted by 0.2% q/q in Q2: we expect the recession to last until at least Q4-2012 • Germany’s growth slowed to 0.3% q/q, France stagnated; recession worsened in Spain and Italy • We expect the ECB to ease policy further in Septemb...

  • United States – Fed to wait for expected pick-up - Updated Mon July 30, 2012

    QE3 is unlikely in July and better data by September should keep the Fed on hold • A ‘fiscal cliff’ could trigger QE in 2013, but a ‘fiscal slope’ will not • Currency – An unexpected dose of QE3 would be USD-negative, but other factors are at play...

  • 16-Jul-12 – Hot summer, cold turkey - Updated Sun July 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth expected to be moderate • Germany – ZEW survey to point to weaker sentiment • United States – Maintain pay 5Y swap spread position • Market focus • We believe that hopes of further QE are optimistic ...

  • Euro area – Currency breakups: lessons from history - Updated Sun June 24, 2012

    We dissect past cases of currency breakups to shed light on today’s debate about the euro area’s future • Political support across the euro area is under pressure; this was a key break-up factor in the past • Stronger countries can make or break ...

  • 14-June-12 – Relative value in Asian local markets - Updated Wed June 13, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – No expected change in BoJ’s policy rate and asset purchases • Philippines – April should show healthy growth in remittances • United States – Headline weakness takes time to hit the core • Market focus • Investors s...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.