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  • SNB concedes defeat in the currency war - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    SNB’s suspension of the EUR-CHF floor can be seen as pre-emptive ahead of ECB QE • SNB’s continued FX intervention at the margins should rule out levels below 0.95 • Ironically, the SNB’s withdrawal from the currency cap raises the prospect of sus...

  • 18-Aug – Waiting for Jackson Hole [Correction] - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item. • Top 3 data/events • China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July • UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July • US – We expect a moderate reco...

  • 07-Jul – Commodities: Rise of the fundamentals - Updated Sun July 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation pressure remains muted • Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May • United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May Market focus • Positioning for uneven and slug...

  • 20-Jun – Revising our GBP-USD forecasts - Updated Thu June 19, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Europe – New clearing banks set to boost RMB internationalisation • Taiwan – May IP, job data likely shows a recovery in growth momentum • Singapore – May inflation likely supported by private transport costs • Market focu...

  • 19-Jun – The Fed: And now back to the World Cup - Updated Wed June 18, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation may remain high on supply-side factors • Taiwan – Recovery in global demand likely supported orders data • Euro area – Consumer confidence should keep improving • Market focus • QE was tapered a furt...

  • 18-Jun – More scope for RBI intervention - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q1 GDP growth likely rose to 1.1% q/q • Philippines – BSP likely to keep rates steady at its June meeting • Switzerland – SNB expected to stay the course • Market focus • The RBI has intervened substant...

  • The Morning Call 17-Jun – Oil spillover in Asia - Updated Mon June 16, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Japan – May exports likely slowed; BoJ minutes unlikely to surprise • Thailand – BoT’s easing cycle is likely over • US – Housing starts likely edged lower; CPI may have continued rising • Market focus • Growth impact...

  • ECB: Everything but the kitchen sink - Updated Thu June 5, 2014

    The ECB cut the deposit rate to negative and introduced measures to boost lending and liquidity • Downwardly revised inflation forecasts suggest that QE is on the horizon • We expect medium-term rate expectations to be pared, given the announcemen...

  • ECB: What to expect when you’re expecting - Updated Thu May 29, 2014

    We expect a 10bps cut to the main policy rates (taking the deposit rate negative) and credit stimulus • There is a growing chance that the ECB will embark on quantitative easing (QE) in H2-2014 • FX – Buy EUR-CAD call spreads as the EUR might rebo...

  • ECB: Mario prepares to go the full Monty - Updated Thu May 8, 2014

    We think that the ECB will ease next month on the back of a weaker official outlook for inflation • Our forecasts no longer see rates on hold: we expect refi to fall to 0.15% and a negative deposit rate • We have revised down our 10Y Bund yiel...

  • The Scotland referendum: Grasping the thistle - Updated Fri May 2, 2014

    An independent Scotland would be negative for UK trade, but positive for the UK’s fiscal position • GBP weakness on a ‘Yes’ would be temporary, but option vol looks cheap ahead of the referendum • The margin between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes narrowed ...

  • 29-Apr – CNY: Assessing 2012 risks - Updated Mon April 28, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events 28 April 2014 • Japan – BoJ likely to stay put; industrial production likely rebounded • South Korea – IP backed by strong exports • Euro area – Rise in April CPI may alleviate policy-action pressure • Market focus • Ch...

  • 25-Apr – Banxico, BanRep dovish in their own ways - Updated Thu April 24, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • EM bonds – Impact of ELMI+ rebalancing should be limited • Japan – Retail sales likely continued to accelerate m/m in March • Taiwan – Leading index likely to show stronger growth in Q1 • Market focus • We expect Ba...

  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • 23-Apr – Solid Korean growth and the KRW puzzle - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ will likely hike the cash rate again, to 3.00% • Germany – IFO to show firm fundamentals dampened by shaky outlook • US – Markit PMI survey may show ongoing manufacturing expansion • Market focus ...

  • 18-Feb – No change in the PBoC’s policy stance - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – CPI inflation likely edged up further in January • UK – BoE minutes to echo Inflation Report as unemployment falls to 7% • South Africa – January CPI inflation a key focus • Market focus • Credit growth was...

  • CFA franc zone – The peg is here to stay - Updated Wed July 24, 2013

    We update our CFA franc barometer and find that there is little pressure for a devaluation at the moment • The euro-area crisis is unlikely to lead to a review of the current peg of the CFA franc to the EUR • Despite its shortcomings, the present ...

  • Euro area – ECB finally concedes a refi cut - Updated Thu May 2, 2013

    • The ECB cuts the refi rate by 25bps to a new low of 0.5%, as expected • A deposit-rate cut will be considered if required but, for now, such a move looks a low probability • The ECB will work with other institutions to kick-start the ABS market,...

  • Euro area – Dazed and confused ECB hints at action - Updated Thu April 4, 2013

    The ECB will ‘monitor very closely all incoming information in the coming weeks’ • Standard and non-standard measures are being considered; we expect action next month • Draghi warns that recovery is subject to downside risks...

  • 19-Mar – Damned if they do, damned if they don't - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Still-muted inflation is expected • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show ongoing revival in tech demand • US – Housing construction data to confirm its upward trend • Market focus • Cyprus ‘bail-in’ unnerves e...



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