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  • 18-Feb – No change in the PBoC’s policy stance - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – CPI inflation likely edged up further in January • UK – BoE minutes to echo Inflation Report as unemployment falls to 7% • South Africa – January CPI inflation a key focus • Market focus • Credit growth was...

  • CFA franc zone – The peg is here to stay - Updated Wed July 24, 2013

    We update our CFA franc barometer and find that there is little pressure for a devaluation at the moment • The euro-area crisis is unlikely to lead to a review of the current peg of the CFA franc to the EUR • Despite its shortcomings, the present ...

  • Euro area – ECB finally concedes a refi cut - Updated Thu May 2, 2013

    • The ECB cuts the refi rate by 25bps to a new low of 0.5%, as expected • A deposit-rate cut will be considered if required but, for now, such a move looks a low probability • The ECB will work with other institutions to kick-start the ABS market,...

  • Euro area – Dazed and confused ECB hints at action - Updated Thu April 4, 2013

    The ECB will ‘monitor very closely all incoming information in the coming weeks’ • Standard and non-standard measures are being considered; we expect action next month • Draghi warns that recovery is subject to downside risks...

  • 19-Mar – Damned if they do, damned if they don't - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Still-muted inflation is expected • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show ongoing revival in tech demand • US – Housing construction data to confirm its upward trend • Market focus • Cyprus ‘bail-in’ unnerves e...

  • EUR – Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Euro-area political stresses will refocus attention on what the ECB’s euro promise really means • Cyprus may represent a unique situation, but depositors around the euro area may be unnerved • We put our (bearish) end-Q1 and Q2 EUR-USD forecasts u...

  • Euro area – ECB: Draghi fires a warning shot on EUR - Updated Thu February 7, 2013

    • ECB rates remain unchanged; in our view, policy makers do not want market rates to rise at this stage • Draghi warns that EUR appreciation brings downside risks to inflation • Financial conditions have improved, yet the ECB continues to fret abo...

  • 01-Feb-13 – The euro and the currency wars - Updated Thu January 31, 2013

    • Singapore – PMI likely remained in contractionary territory • Oil – Rising crude prices are likely to be reined in • US – Lacklustre public-sector job data probably weighed on payrolls ...

  • Euro area – ECB sees ‘positive contagion’ - Updated Thu January 10, 2013

    The ECB keeps rates unchanged; we are pushing back our forecast of a 25bps refi rate cut to Q2-2013 • Upbeat financial markets are driving ‘positive contagion’, but economic risks remain to the downside • The jury is still out: in our view, politi...

  • Euro area – What to watch in 2013 - Updated Wed January 9, 2013

    The upturn in euro-area sentiment remains susceptible to a deterioration in politics in the region • But ECB and ESM backstops, plus upcoming German elections, limit near-term downside risks • Trade and budget imbalances are correcting, but a sti...

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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.