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  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • ECB QE – Will it work? - Updated Tue March 10, 2015

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Thursday 12 March 2015. There will be 2 sessions: 16:00 SG/HK / 08:00 London (GMT) and 15:00 London (GMT) / 11:00 NY (EDT) with: • Sarah Hewin, Head, Macro Res...

  • SNB concedes defeat in the currency war - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    SNB’s suspension of the EUR-CHF floor can be seen as pre-emptive ahead of ECB QE • SNB’s continued FX intervention at the margins should rule out levels below 0.95 • Ironically, the SNB’s withdrawal from the currency cap raises the prospect of sus...

  • 18-Aug – Waiting for Jackson Hole [Correction] - Updated Mon August 18, 2014

    This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item. • Top 3 data/events • China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July • UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July • US – We expect a moderate reco...

  • 07-Jul – Commodities: Rise of the fundamentals - Updated Sun July 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation pressure remains muted • Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May • United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May Market focus • Positioning for uneven and slug...

  • 20-Jun – Revising our GBP-USD forecasts - Updated Thu June 19, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Europe – New clearing banks set to boost RMB internationalisation • Taiwan – May IP, job data likely shows a recovery in growth momentum • Singapore – May inflation likely supported by private transport costs • Market focu...

  • 19-Jun – The Fed: And now back to the World Cup - Updated Wed June 18, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation may remain high on supply-side factors • Taiwan – Recovery in global demand likely supported orders data • Euro area – Consumer confidence should keep improving • Market focus • QE was tapered a furt...

  • 18-Jun – More scope for RBI intervention - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q1 GDP growth likely rose to 1.1% q/q • Philippines – BSP likely to keep rates steady at its June meeting • Switzerland – SNB expected to stay the course • Market focus • The RBI has intervened substant...

  • The Morning Call 17-Jun – Oil spillover in Asia - Updated Mon June 16, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Japan – May exports likely slowed; BoJ minutes unlikely to surprise • Thailand – BoT’s easing cycle is likely over • US – Housing starts likely edged lower; CPI may have continued rising • Market focus • Growth impact...

  • ECB: Everything but the kitchen sink - Updated Thu June 5, 2014

    The ECB cut the deposit rate to negative and introduced measures to boost lending and liquidity • Downwardly revised inflation forecasts suggest that QE is on the horizon • We expect medium-term rate expectations to be pared, given the announcemen...

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