An independent Scotland would be negative for UK trade, but positive for the UK’s fiscal position
• GBP weakness on a ‘Yes’ would be temporary, but option vol looks cheap ahead of the referendum
• The margin between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes narrowed ...
Top 3 data/events
• Malaysia – Still-muted inflation is expected
• Taiwan – Export orders likely to show ongoing revival in tech demand
• US – Housing construction data to confirm its upward trend
• Market focus
• Cyprus ‘bail-in’ unnerves e...
Euro-area political stresses will refocus attention on what the ECB’s euro promise really means
• Cyprus may represent a unique situation, but depositors around the euro area may be unnerved
• We put our (bearish) end-Q1 and Q2 EUR-USD forecasts u...
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Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.
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