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  • 19-Mar – Damned if they do, damned if they don't - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Still-muted inflation is expected • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show ongoing revival in tech demand • US – Housing construction data to confirm its upward trend • Market focus • Cyprus ‘bail-in’ unnerves e...

  • EUR – Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    Euro-area political stresses will refocus attention on what the ECB’s euro promise really means • Cyprus may represent a unique situation, but depositors around the euro area may be unnerved • We put our (bearish) end-Q1 and Q2 EUR-USD forecasts u...

  • Euro area – ECB sees ‘positive contagion’ - Updated Thu January 10, 2013

    The ECB keeps rates unchanged; we are pushing back our forecast of a 25bps refi rate cut to Q2-2013 • Upbeat financial markets are driving ‘positive contagion’, but economic risks remain to the downside • The jury is still out: in our view, politi...

  • Euro area – What to watch in 2013 - Updated Wed January 9, 2013

    The upturn in euro-area sentiment remains susceptible to a deterioration in politics in the region • But ECB and ESM backstops, plus upcoming German elections, limit near-term downside risks • Trade and budget imbalances are correcting, but a sti...

  • 31-May-12 – Spain’s banks steal the Greek show - Updated Wed May 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI likely to slide, confirming the slowdown in manufacturing • Indonesia – Inflation to remain at moderate levels • South Korea – Benign inflation and sluggish trade flows to prevail Market focus • Spain illustrates...

  • 30-May-12 – Another weak quarter for India - Updated Tue May 29, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • South Korea – Industrial production likely rose 1.0% m/m in April • Philippines – Resilient Q1 GDP • Brazil – COPOM in cutting mode, for now Market focus • India’s Q4-FY12 GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0%, the weakest si...

  • 25-May-12 – Revisiting the value in vol - Updated Thu May 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Slow loan growth, but the cost of financing is falling • Taiwan – Leading indicators index likely to drop • Thailand – Manufacturing production and trade to recover Market focus • Our call for reducing FX beta, raisi...

  • 22-May-12 – The eye of the storm - Updated Mon May 21, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put this week, but may signal further easing • Malaysia – Both GDP and inflation likely slowed • Taiwan – IP to remain soft due to slowing exports Market focus • Market expectations for Wednesda...

  • 18-May-12 – The epic quest for growth (and money) - Updated Thu May 17, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Greece is in the spotlight at G8 Summit; concrete measures are unlikely • Taiwan – April export orders to rebound on improving tech outlook • Thailand – Weaker external demand to be a drag on Q1 GDP Market focus ...

  • 17-May-12 – CNY flexibility amid China soft landing - Updated Wed May 16, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – The INR hits an all-time low versus the USD • Euro area – European Central Bank lifts Greek EMU exit taboo • Brazil – March retail sales likely rebounded Market focus • Fears of a China hard landing based on April r...

  • 10-May-12 – Sell in May… - Updated Wed May 9, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – March IIP likely slowed significantly • Malaysia – Central bank to keep rates on hold • Thailand – BoT will likely raise its 2012 GDP growth forecast Market focus • Asian currencies are correcting and have further t...

  • 09-May-12 – Picking up the pace in China - Updated Tue May 8, 2012

    Key events and data • Indonesia – BI to keep interest rates on hold • Philippines – Export growth to remain positive • South Korea – BoK to keep interest rates unchanged Market focus • China’s economy shows tentative signs of recovery, but dow...

  • 8-May-12 – Steady hands at Asian central banks - Updated Mon May 7, 2012

    Top 3 key data/events • Malaysia – Export and import growth likely slowed in March • Greece – Political crisis as pro-bailout parties fail to gain a majority • US – We anticipate sub-par performance for NFIB small business optimism Market focus ...

  • 04-May-12 – Value in vol - Updated Thu May 3, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Taiwan – Rising risk of inflation as tech outlook improves • India – INR under pressure on weak fundamentals • Indonesia – Q1 growth likely moderated Market focus • US NFP report is just one of many near-term event ...

  • United States – Participation and unemployment - Updated Wed May 2, 2012

    • The trend in the participation rate is critical for the unemployment rate • We now expect less downward pressure on the unemployment rate from participation-rate declines • Payroll growth of 150,000 monthly, as we expect, will allow unemploymen...

  • 26-Apr-12 – BoJ easing to disappoint USD-JPY bulls - Updated Wed April 25, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Japan – March industrial production should remain weak on a m/m basis • Thailand – MPI is likely to show a y/y contraction • Europe – Italy sells bills; Eurostat releases confidence surveys Market focus • BoJ likely ...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.