Hedge funds in the UK and US have significantly reduced long USD positions, awaiting clear trends
• Real-money funds are focused on relative value, favouring O/W AXJ vs. Latam currencies and O/W INR
• European corporates perceive long-term value i...
• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
This supersedes the version dated 18 August 2014. Amends title of China item.
• Top 3 data/events
• China – Balanced supply and demand of FX onshore in July
• UK – CPI inflation likely remained at 1.9% in July
• US – We expect a moderate reco...
Top 3 data/events
• China – Inflation pressure remains muted
• Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May
• United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May
• Positioning for uneven and slug...
An independent Scotland would be negative for UK trade, but positive for the UK’s fiscal position
• GBP weakness on a ‘Yes’ would be temporary, but option vol looks cheap ahead of the referendum
• The margin between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes narrowed ...
• Top 3 data/events
• Malaysia – CPI inflation likely edged up further in January
• UK – BoE minutes to echo Inflation Report as unemployment falls to 7%
• South Africa – January CPI inflation a key focus
• Market focus
• Credit growth was...
Our SC IMM positioning heatmap suggests AUD may see a major short-term rally
• Leveraged net shorts in the AUD vs. the USD, EUR, GBP and NZD reach sample extremes
• Leveraged funds should buy 1M EUR-AUD, GBP-AUD put spreads...
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