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  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for PHP - Updated Fri February 21, 2014

    • In January, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; large USD buyers vs. IDR, TWD, CNH • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and CNY; buyers of USD vs. CNH, TWD and PHP • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR and ...

  • Asian FX PCA – RV in focus on mixed global IP cycle - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle • Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off • Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...

  • Philippines – Remittances get an external boost - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We expect further remittance growth on a recovery in global growth and post-typhoon reconstruction • Our models therefore estimate c.2.0-2.5% more support in 2014 than in 2013 • We expect remittance growth to remain positive for GDP growth, curren...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR, USD-PHP - Updated Fri October 11, 2013

    In September, our clients were large USD sellers vs. PHP, TWD and INR; large USD buyers vs. IDR • Our custodian clients were large sellers of USD versus PHP and TWD; substantial buyers of USD-IDR • Short USD positioning is now substantial vs. PHP,...

  • SCTF – Positioning risks reduced in THB and MYR - Updated Fri September 13, 2013

    In August, our clients were sellers of USD versus KRW, CNY, INR; buyers of USD versus THB, IDR, PHP • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD versus KRW; substantial buyers of USD versus THB and PHP • Short USD positioning is now substantial ver...

  • Asian FX PCA – AXJ to rally in Q4 on growth - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4 • We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies • We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...

  • Sell TWD-PHP - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    We see the Philippines as having the strongest fundamentals in Asia on growth, CA, fiscal consolidation • Elevated NEER and equity outflows to weigh on TWD near-term • Forward points, levels and seasonal factors make it attractive to sell TWD-PHP ...

  • SC FIRST – EM bonds to fall; sell PHP, IDR bonds - Updated Thu June 20, 2013

    SC FIRST gives direction, spread and relative-value signals for EM bonds • We get a negative direction signal for EM bonds on fund outflows, bond selling and negative FX outlook • New this month: We estimate EM-fund cash levels and flows to help o...

  • Asian FX PCA – Weak global IP cycle supports RV - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    PCA confirms that growth is the key driver of AXJ currencies, followed by carry and USD-CNY fixings • China’s IP cycle leads KRW, TWD, IDR and MYR; local IP cycle is important for INR and TWD • Recent drop in global and local IP cycles to weigh o...

  • Close long PHP vs. G3 - Updated Mon April 29, 2013

    Recent weakness in Philippine data and potential further SDA adjustments to weigh on PHP near-term • Rich valuations in the PHP and local asset markets to weigh on PHP in Q2 • We look to re-buy PHP in H2 when PHP appreciation should resume on stro...

  • Thailand – Risk of capital flow measures - Updated Thu April 25, 2013

    The Post Today reported that the BoT may introduce a holding period for foreigners buying THB bonds • We believe a price-based approach to FX measures would be less market-disruptive than quantity-based • We take profit on our long 10Y THB positi...

  • 20-Mar – THB, PHP local markets to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan –Trade deficit likely continued in February • UK – Retail sales may have crept up in February, but remain fragile • US – The FOMC is expected to sit tight • Market focus • SCTF and SC FIRST suggest that positioning ...

  • Buy PHP vs. G3 - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • We are bullish on the PHP on strong growth, solid C/A balance and rating upgrade expectations • Our Standard Chartered Transaction Flows indicate clients were net long USD-PHP as of end-February • Onshore, our Philippine clients are very bullis...

  • SC FIRST – Low-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term • Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls • Investors should keep exposure to...

  • Philippines – Positives for current account outlook - Updated Wed March 6, 2013

    We expect a larger current account surplus in 2013, supported by services exports and remittances • The BoP backdrop provides a strong argument for an investment-grade rating by 2014 • We maintain our Overweight stance on the PHP, although we expe...

  • Take profit on long PHP vs. G3 - Updated Fri March 1, 2013

    The Philippines may introduce further capital-flow measures to cap the PHP’s rise near-term • These measures are unlikely to reverse PHP trend appreciation, but they are likely to slow its speed • Fundamentally, we remain bullish on PHP medium-ter...

  • Buy PHP vs. G3 - Updated Fri February 8, 2013

    We are bullish on the PHP on strong growth, solid C/A balance and investment-upgrade expectations • Our Standard Chartered Transaction Flows indicate clients were net long USD-PHP in early January • Onshore, our Philippine clients are very bullis...

  • Standard Chartered Transaction Flows – January - Updated Tue January 15, 2013

    Our SCTF Position Index shows clients remain substantially short USD vs. MYR; long USD vs. IDR, CNH • Clients overall boosted USD shorts in December vs. MYR, TWD, SGD; reduced shorts vs. CNY, KRW, INR • Custodian clients are substantially short US...



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