• Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD
• Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB
• Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...
• In January, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; large USD buyers vs. IDR, TWD, CNH
• Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and CNY; buyers of USD vs. CNH, TWD and PHP
• Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR and ...
We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle
• Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off
• Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...
We expect further remittance growth on a recovery in global growth and post-typhoon reconstruction
• Our models therefore estimate c.2.0-2.5% more support in 2014 than in 2013
• We expect remittance growth to remain positive for GDP growth, curren...
In September, our clients were large USD sellers vs. PHP, TWD and INR; large USD buyers vs. IDR
• Our custodian clients were large sellers of USD versus PHP and TWD; substantial buyers of USD-IDR
• Short USD positioning is now substantial vs. PHP,...
In August, our clients were sellers of USD versus KRW, CNY, INR; buyers of USD versus THB, IDR, PHP
• Our custodian clients were sellers of USD versus KRW; substantial buyers of USD versus THB and PHP
• Short USD positioning is now substantial ver...
We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4
• We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies
• We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...
We see the Philippines as having the strongest fundamentals in Asia on growth, CA, fiscal consolidation
• Elevated NEER and equity outflows to weigh on TWD near-term
• Forward points, levels and seasonal factors make it attractive to sell TWD-PHP ...
SC FIRST gives direction, spread and relative-value signals for EM bonds
• We get a negative direction signal for EM bonds on fund outflows, bond selling and negative FX outlook
• New this month: We estimate EM-fund cash levels and flows to help o...
PCA confirms that growth is the key driver of AXJ currencies, followed by carry and USD-CNY fixings
• China’s IP cycle leads KRW, TWD, IDR and MYR; local IP cycle is important for INR and TWD
• Recent drop in global and local IP cycles to weigh o...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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