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  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-JPY buyers in April • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-KRW sellers • Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR • SC...

  • Sell SGD-PHP via 3M NDFs - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    We expect the SGD-PHP cross to resume its weakening trend given strong macro divergence • We recommend selling SGD-PHP 3M NDFs; spot target: 32.00, spot stop-loss: 34.20 • We raise our short-term FX weighting on the PHP to Overweight; we remain Un...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Thu April 23, 2015

    • G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-CAD sellers in March • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-IDR buyers • Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR • ...

  • Philippines – What our clients think - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Our clients are optimistic – 78% expect better or similar growth prospects versus last year • They expect BSP to keep policy rates unchanged, versus our call of a rate hike in Q4-2015 • Only 13% expect a stronger PHP versus the USD (below 44.00) b...

  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • Philippines – Strong rebound in GDP growth - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    GDP growth accelerated to 6.9% y/y in Q4-2014 from 5.3% in Q3; q/q SA growth was 2.5% • We expect robust GDP growth to continue throughout 2015, with risks to the upside • USD-PHP is supported by positive fundamentals, and could continue to outper...

  • Cross-currents – Relative value in Asia [Correction] - Updated Fri January 9, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 9 January 2015. On page 12, amends CNH forecasts. • AXJ currencies were resilient in 2014 – good for investors but not so favourable for AXJ exporters • The oil-price slide will help external imbalances, but furth...

  • Philippines – Growth improved in Q2 - Updated Thu August 28, 2014

    GDP growth accelerated to 6.4% y/y in Q2 from 5.6% in Q1; a 1.9% q/q seasonally adjusted increase • Better external demand helped; manufacturing and services were buoyant • We maintain our short- and medium-term Neutral FX weighting on the PHP due...

  • Philippines – Promising prospects; food is a risk - Updated Fri May 23, 2014

    We upgrade our 2014 growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%; Q1 growth likely to come in at 6.5% y/y • Growth will likely be supported by the robust domestic sector and improving external outlook • With El Niño looming, food inflation is likely to be th...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...



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