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  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for PHP - Updated Fri February 21, 2014

    • In January, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; large USD buyers vs. IDR, TWD, CNH • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and CNY; buyers of USD vs. CNH, TWD and PHP • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR and ...

  • Asian FX PCA – RV in focus on mixed global IP cycle - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle • Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off • Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...

  • Philippines – Remittances get an external boost - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We expect further remittance growth on a recovery in global growth and post-typhoon reconstruction • Our models therefore estimate c.2.0-2.5% more support in 2014 than in 2013 • We expect remittance growth to remain positive for GDP growth, curren...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR, USD-PHP - Updated Fri October 11, 2013

    In September, our clients were large USD sellers vs. PHP, TWD and INR; large USD buyers vs. IDR • Our custodian clients were large sellers of USD versus PHP and TWD; substantial buyers of USD-IDR • Short USD positioning is now substantial vs. PHP,...

  • SCTF – Positioning risks reduced in THB and MYR - Updated Fri September 13, 2013

    In August, our clients were sellers of USD versus KRW, CNY, INR; buyers of USD versus THB, IDR, PHP • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD versus KRW; substantial buyers of USD versus THB and PHP • Short USD positioning is now substantial ver...

  • Asian FX PCA – AXJ to rally in Q4 on growth - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4 • We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies • We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...

  • Sell TWD-PHP - Updated Tue August 13, 2013

    We see the Philippines as having the strongest fundamentals in Asia on growth, CA, fiscal consolidation • Elevated NEER and equity outflows to weigh on TWD near-term • Forward points, levels and seasonal factors make it attractive to sell TWD-PHP ...

  • SC FIRST – EM bonds to fall; sell PHP, IDR bonds - Updated Thu June 20, 2013

    SC FIRST gives direction, spread and relative-value signals for EM bonds • We get a negative direction signal for EM bonds on fund outflows, bond selling and negative FX outlook • New this month: We estimate EM-fund cash levels and flows to help o...

  • Asian FX PCA – Weak global IP cycle supports RV - Updated Thu May 9, 2013

    PCA confirms that growth is the key driver of AXJ currencies, followed by carry and USD-CNY fixings • China’s IP cycle leads KRW, TWD, IDR and MYR; local IP cycle is important for INR and TWD • Recent drop in global and local IP cycles to weigh o...



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