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  • Philippines – Remittances get an external boost - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We expect further remittance growth on a recovery in global growth and post-typhoon reconstruction • Our models therefore estimate c.2.0-2.5% more support in 2014 than in 2013 • We expect remittance growth to remain positive for GDP growth, curren...

  • 20-Mar – THB, PHP local markets to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan –Trade deficit likely continued in February • UK – Retail sales may have crept up in February, but remain fragile • US – The FOMC is expected to sit tight • Market focus • SCTF and SC FIRST suggest that positioning ...

  • Philippines – Positives for current account outlook - Updated Wed March 6, 2013

    We expect a larger current account surplus in 2013, supported by services exports and remittances • The BoP backdrop provides a strong argument for an investment-grade rating by 2014 • We maintain our Overweight stance on the PHP, although we expe...

  • Asia Economic Heatmap – Waiting for spring - Updated Mon January 7, 2013

    The Asia macro picture suggests a slightly better performance in 2013 than 2012 on the whole • We expect soft US demand in Q1-2013; the worst fears of fiscal contraction have been avoided • FX implications: The pick-up in China’s IP cycle suppor...

  • Philippines – Sailing through the storm - Updated Thu November 29, 2012

    • Philippines’ Q3 growth confirms strong fundamental support for the PHP • We have revised up our 2012 and 2013 GDP forecasts for the Philippines • We remain bullish on PHP and PHP bonds, keeping an eye on short-term policy ...

  • Philippines – Another rate cut seen in September - Updated Mon July 30, 2012

    The central bank is focusing on growth target this year; inflation is now less of a concern • Our base-case scenario is one more 25bps cut in September • We maintain Overweight duration outlook on PHP bond market and short-term Overweight on PHP...

  • 16-Jul-12 – Hot summer, cold turkey - Updated Sun July 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth expected to be moderate • Germany – ZEW survey to point to weaker sentiment • United States – Maintain pay 5Y swap spread position • Market focus • We believe that hopes of further QE are optimistic ...

  • 25-Jun-12 – Moody’s ups the heat on Europe - Updated Sun June 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth • Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds • Market focus • The Moody’s...

  • 14-June-12 – Relative value in Asian local markets - Updated Wed June 13, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – No expected change in BoJ’s policy rate and asset purchases • Philippines – April should show healthy growth in remittances • United States – Headline weakness takes time to hit the core • Market focus • Investors s...

  • 13-June-12 – Firmer ground for the RBI to cut rates - Updated Tue June 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2012 • Euro area – Chancellor Merkel to outline her stance ahead of the G20 meeting • US – We forecast weaker-than-consensus May retail sales • Market foc...

  • 12-June-12 – Spectre of 17 June casts its shadow - Updated Mon June 11, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – BoT to keep interest rates on hold • Ghana – BoG expected to hike another 100bps • United States – Small business to be range-bound in 2012 • Market focus • The Greek elections on 17 June continue to pose a threa...

  • Asia Economic Heatmap – Good news is old news - Updated Thu June 7, 2012

    Market is likely to downplay any pick-up in exports and production in Q2-2012 • China’s slowdown and renewed recession risk in Europe are the over-riding concerns • We introduce short-term fundamental signals for Asian currencies, based on our Hea...

  • Asia – Who will benefit from China’s stimulus? - Updated Mon June 4, 2012

    Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan saw largest jumps in exports to China during CNY 4trn 2009 stimulus • Relative to their economy sizes, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand received the largest boosts • Stimulus news did not have a strong direct impact o...

  • 31-May-12 – Spain’s banks steal the Greek show - Updated Wed May 30, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI likely to slide, confirming the slowdown in manufacturing • Indonesia – Inflation to remain at moderate levels • South Korea – Benign inflation and sluggish trade flows to prevail Market focus • Spain illustrates...

  • 23-May-12 – China wobbles, Asia trembles - Updated Tue May 22, 2012

    • Top 3 data/events • Chile – We revise up our USD-CLP forecast • South Africa – SARB seen on hold despite CPI move higher • Euro area – Flash PMI indices likely to signal Q2 GDP contraction • Market focus • Asia’s exports to China have slowe...

  • Philippines – Investment grade on the horizon - Updated Thu May 10, 2012

    Philippines can achieve investment grade by 2014 via fiscal reforms and higher investment • Strong tax productivity and lower debt-to-GDP ratio are required • Sovereign credit spread is already trading consistently with investment-grade levels •...

  • 10-May-12 – Sell in May… - Updated Wed May 9, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – March IIP likely slowed significantly • Malaysia – Central bank to keep rates on hold • Thailand – BoT will likely raise its 2012 GDP growth forecast Market focus • Asian currencies are correcting and have further t...

  • 01-May-12 – SEA outshines US in data surprises - Updated Mon April 30, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Thailand – BoT is expected to keep rates on hold • Euro area – Manufacturing PMI: no place to hide in the region, even not in Germany • US – ISM manufacturing may have had a timid start to Q2 Market focus • US downsi...

  • 27-Apr-12 – The canary in the coal mine - Updated Thu April 26, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Korea – Industrial production in negative territory • Taiwan – GDP growth to moderate in Q1 • US – Q1 GDP likely to disappoint Market focus • Australia’s money market is pricing in major RBA easing; a warning for the...

  • 26-Apr-12 – BoJ easing to disappoint USD-JPY bulls - Updated Wed April 25, 2012

    Top 3 key events and data • Japan – March industrial production should remain weak on a m/m basis • Thailand – MPI is likely to show a y/y contraction • Europe – Italy sells bills; Eurostat releases confidence surveys Market focus • BoJ likely ...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.