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  • Philippines – Remittances get an external boost - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We expect further remittance growth on a recovery in global growth and post-typhoon reconstruction • Our models therefore estimate c.2.0-2.5% more support in 2014 than in 2013 • We expect remittance growth to remain positive for GDP growth, curren...

  • 20-Mar – THB, PHP local markets to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan –Trade deficit likely continued in February • UK – Retail sales may have crept up in February, but remain fragile • US – The FOMC is expected to sit tight • Market focus • SCTF and SC FIRST suggest that positioning ...

  • Philippines – Positives for current account outlook - Updated Wed March 6, 2013

    We expect a larger current account surplus in 2013, supported by services exports and remittances • The BoP backdrop provides a strong argument for an investment-grade rating by 2014 • We maintain our Overweight stance on the PHP, although we expe...

  • Asia Economic Heatmap – Waiting for spring - Updated Mon January 7, 2013

    The Asia macro picture suggests a slightly better performance in 2013 than 2012 on the whole • We expect soft US demand in Q1-2013; the worst fears of fiscal contraction have been avoided • FX implications: The pick-up in China’s IP cycle suppor...

  • Philippines – Sailing through the storm - Updated Thu November 29, 2012

    • Philippines’ Q3 growth confirms strong fundamental support for the PHP • We have revised up our 2012 and 2013 GDP forecasts for the Philippines • We remain bullish on PHP and PHP bonds, keeping an eye on short-term policy ...

  • Philippines – Another rate cut seen in September - Updated Mon July 30, 2012

    The central bank is focusing on growth target this year; inflation is now less of a concern • Our base-case scenario is one more 25bps cut in September • We maintain Overweight duration outlook on PHP bond market and short-term Overweight on PHP...

  • 16-Jul-12 – Hot summer, cold turkey - Updated Sun July 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth expected to be moderate • Germany – ZEW survey to point to weaker sentiment • United States – Maintain pay 5Y swap spread position • Market focus • We believe that hopes of further QE are optimistic ...

  • 25-Jun-12 – Moody’s ups the heat on Europe - Updated Sun June 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth • Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds • Market focus • The Moody’s...

  • 14-June-12 – Relative value in Asian local markets - Updated Wed June 13, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – No expected change in BoJ’s policy rate and asset purchases • Philippines – April should show healthy growth in remittances • United States – Headline weakness takes time to hit the core • Market focus • Investors s...

  • 13-June-12 – Firmer ground for the RBI to cut rates - Updated Tue June 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2012 • Euro area – Chancellor Merkel to outline her stance ahead of the G20 meeting • US – We forecast weaker-than-consensus May retail sales • Market foc...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.