•Direction signal stays negative, in line with our overall views: EM bond yields to go higher
• Spread signal turns from negative to neutral: in high yielders, sell IDR bonds, buy NGN bonds
• Relative value signals are bearish Asian bonds: sell...
SC FIRST gives direction, spread and relative-value signals for EM bonds
• We get a negative direction signal for EM bonds on fund outflows, bond selling and negative FX outlook
• New this month: We estimate EM-fund cash levels and flows to help o...
The Post Today reported that the BoT may introduce a holding period for foreigners buying THB bonds
• We believe a price-based approach to FX measures would be less market-disruptive than quantity-based
• We take profit on our long 10Y THB positi...
Top 3 data/events
• Japan –Trade deficit likely continued in February
• UK – Retail sales may have crept up in February, but remain fragile
• US – The FOMC is expected to sit tight
• Market focus
• SCTF and SC FIRST suggest that positioning ...
Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term
• Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls
• Investors should keep exposure to...
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