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  • SC FIRST – Still bearish; sell IDR, PHP, THB bonds - Updated Thu July 11, 2013

    •Direction signal stays negative, in line with our overall views: EM bond yields to go higher • Spread signal turns from negative to neutral: in high yielders, sell IDR bonds, buy NGN bonds • Relative value signals are bearish Asian bonds: sell...

  • SC FIRST – EM bonds to fall; sell PHP, IDR bonds - Updated Thu June 20, 2013

    SC FIRST gives direction, spread and relative-value signals for EM bonds • We get a negative direction signal for EM bonds on fund outflows, bond selling and negative FX outlook • New this month: We estimate EM-fund cash levels and flows to help o...

  • Thailand – Risk of capital flow measures - Updated Thu April 25, 2013

    The Post Today reported that the BoT may introduce a holding period for foreigners buying THB bonds • We believe a price-based approach to FX measures would be less market-disruptive than quantity-based • We take profit on our long 10Y THB positi...

  • 20-Mar – THB, PHP local markets to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan –Trade deficit likely continued in February • UK – Retail sales may have crept up in February, but remain fragile • US – The FOMC is expected to sit tight • Market focus • SCTF and SC FIRST suggest that positioning ...

  • SC FIRST – Low-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term • Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls • Investors should keep exposure to...



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