• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call
• USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility
• We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...
• RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum
• We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015
• Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...
• We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views
• Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists
• Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...
• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
• The policy response by the Korean authorities to KRW weakness should keep USD-KRW supported
• Limited short-term macro impact of JPY weakness on Korea, but prolonged impact is more significant
• We revise USD-KRW forecasts higher and forecast ...
RGI now includes Seoul and Paris, reflecting their contribution to Renminbi deposits and payment flows
• Excluding the new centres, August was a slow month for the RGI amid lingering China macro concerns
• Paris is well placed to enjoy recent pol...
• RGI m/m growth was the slowest in 20 months, reflecting lingering negative effects from prior months
• Survey shows little rebound in CNH activity; onshore companies are increasing usage
• Shanghai FTZ is off to a good start; many respondents ar...
Top 3 data/events
• South Korea – Imports continue to grow as the economy recovers
• Thailand – Take profit on receive THB 3Y IRS
• USD-CAD – We are raising the stop-loss on our long position
• China’s official manufacturing PMI ...
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