• We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views
• Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists
• Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...
• 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53%
• We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation
• Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...
RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB
• By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn
• Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...
• The policy response by the Korean authorities to KRW weakness should keep USD-KRW supported
• Limited short-term macro impact of JPY weakness on Korea, but prolonged impact is more significant
• We revise USD-KRW forecasts higher and forecast ...
RGI now includes Seoul and Paris, reflecting their contribution to Renminbi deposits and payment flows
• Excluding the new centres, August was a slow month for the RGI amid lingering China macro concerns
• Paris is well placed to enjoy recent pol...
• RGI m/m growth was the slowest in 20 months, reflecting lingering negative effects from prior months
• Survey shows little rebound in CNH activity; onshore companies are increasing usage
• Shanghai FTZ is off to a good start; many respondents ar...
Top 3 data/events
• South Korea – Imports continue to grow as the economy recovers
• Thailand – Take profit on receive THB 3Y IRS
• USD-CAD – We are raising the stop-loss on our long position
• China’s official manufacturing PMI ...
We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4
• We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies
• We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...
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