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  • 28-May – US surprise indices may have troughed - Updated Wed May 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated in May • FX – We raise USD-LKR and lower USD-BDT forecasts • Japan – Core inflation likely remained 0%; IP may have edged up • Market focus • Second Q1 GDP print may be a painful rem...

  • Global supply chains: New directions - Updated Wed May 27, 2015

    • Global supply chains (GSCs) have transformed trade and the world economy in the last 30 years. We argue they will continue to expand, though more slowly than before, and could significantly boost productivity. But patterns will likely change. • R...

  • Singapore – Range-bound growth ahead - Updated Wed May 27, 2015

    Economy is on track to meet the government’s target of 2-4% growth this year • Net exports were helped by lower oil prices; we expect a reversal of the +9.1ppt contribution • Improvement in domestic demand may reverse as private consumption and i...

  • 27-May – BoC: A believer in better times ahead - Updated Tue May 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained healthy in Q1 • Hong Kong – Still too early to confirm an export recovery • Euro area – Economic sentiment likely deteriorated • Market focus • At its 27 May meeting, we see the BoC ...

  • Commodity Roadmap - An early warning of the end of oil market surplus - Updated Tue May 26, 2015

    Focus: After six months of increase, US oil inventories are falling sharply relative to seasonal norms • Rising LME stocks point to a nickel market surplus in Q2 • OPEC meets on 5 June; policy is unlikely to change, but Saudi statements likely to ...

  • Saudi Arabia – Market opening and volatility - Updated Tue May 26, 2015

    Saudi Arabia’s stock market opens up to foreign investors from 15 June • We expect a gradual pick-up in inflows; the real ‘game changer’ would be MSCI-EM inclusion (likely 2017) • We lower our 2015 current account and fiscal balance forecasts for ...

  • 26 May – India – Modi’s first year: Targeting reforms - Updated Mon May 25, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – April monitoring indicators index likely remained in ‘yellow-blue’ zone • Japan – Retail sales likely improved m/m in April • Korea – We expect April IP to have improved • Market focus • India’s government has take...

  • Bangladesh – Fiscal deficit may widen in FY16 - Updated Mon May 25, 2015

    FY16 budget likely to have expansionary bias; fiscal deficit may widen on investment revival • FY15 fiscal deficit could surprise positively on sharp cuts to non-development expenditure • We have a Positive outlook on T-bonds; widening fiscal defi...

  • 25-May – Greece begs to differ - Updated Sun May 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - Manufacturing sector likely remained lacklustre in April • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed on stronger export growth • US – April a temporary hiatus in an otherwise weak durables trend • Market focus ...

  • Signs of improvement in China’s demand - Updated Fri May 22, 2015

    A strong surge in China’s crude oil imports has helped to tighten global balances • Metals trade data points to modest improvement in China demand growth rates in April versus Q1 • China’s y/y oil demand growth has stayed above 8% for a second mon...



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28-May – US surprise indices may have...

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated in May • FX – We raise USD-LKR and lower USD-BDT forecasts • Japan – Core inflation likely remained 0%; IP may have edged up • Market focus • Second Q1 GDP print may be a painful reminder of data weakness • We still expect a...

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