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  • 29-May – Korea – Mixed data and policy uncertainty - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation may have picked up in April • China – Manufacturing sector likely continued to face difficulty • Brazil – BCB likely to keep 50bps tightening pace in 3 June meeting • Market focus • Korea’s upcoming ...

  • SC FIRST – Position risk drives EM flow - Updated Thu May 28, 2015

    Factors driving global markets are reflected in the latest positioning data from SC FIRST • Flows to EM local bond markets have improved somewhat but are far from positive • Malaysia remains in favour relative to Indonesia and Thailand...

  • 28-May – US surprise indices may have troughed - Updated Wed May 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated in May • FX – We raise USD-LKR and lower USD-BDT forecasts • Japan – Core inflation likely remained 0%; IP may have edged up • Market focus • Second Q1 GDP print may be a painful rem...

  • 27-May – BoC: A believer in better times ahead - Updated Tue May 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained healthy in Q1 • Hong Kong – Still too early to confirm an export recovery • Euro area – Economic sentiment likely deteriorated • Market focus • At its 27 May meeting, we see the BoC ...

  • 25-May – Greece begs to differ - Updated Sun May 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - Manufacturing sector likely remained lacklustre in April • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed on stronger export growth • US – April a temporary hiatus in an otherwise weak durables trend • Market focus ...

  • 22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates - Updated Thu May 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread w...

  • 21-May – BoJ likely to remain on hold in May - Updated Wed May 20, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – GST to boost full-year inflation • Germany – IFO index likely to maintain its upward momentum • Brazil – A bumpy road for fiscal adjustment, but in the right direction • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to remain...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-JPY buyers in April • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-KRW sellers • Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR • SC...

  • 15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower BI rate - Updated Thu May 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI ...

  • 13-May – Malaysia’s growth likely remained resilient - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – We expect the April trade deficit to have narrowed • Philippines – We expect no change in BSP’s policy rate decision • US – April consumer spending may show continued torpor • Market focus • We expect GDP growth to ...

  • Sell SGD-PHP via 3M NDFs - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    We expect the SGD-PHP cross to resume its weakening trend given strong macro divergence • We recommend selling SGD-PHP 3M NDFs; spot target: 32.00, spot stop-loss: 34.20 • We raise our short-term FX weighting on the PHP to Overweight; we remain Un...

  • Indonesia – Reality check - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    We lower our real GDP growth forecasts to 4.9% for 2015 and 5.3% for 2016 • We expect BI to cut the BI rate by 25bps in Q2-2015, before hiking by 25bps each in Q3 and Q4 • We maintain our USD-IDR forecast at 13,700 by mid-2015 and 13,500 by end-20...

  • 11-May – BoE to stay on course, IR in focus - Updated Sun May 10, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – April inflation likely dipped below 5%; March IIP was likely tepid • Philippines – Export growth likely fell for a fourth consecutive month • Asian central banks – Focus is again on trade-weighted exchange rate • M...

  • Thailand – Faltering exports dim growth outlook - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    We lower our 2015 GDP growth forecast to 4.1% to reflect weaker-than-expected exports and consumption • BoT may take further steps to support the export sector • We maintain our Positive outlook on THB bonds; we recommend holding long 5Y THB bonds...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • PRD’s pain, China and ASEAN’s gain - Updated Tue May 5, 2015

    Companies in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) – China’s leading manufacturing hub – still face plenty of challenges, according to our sixth annual survey of manufacturers in the region. A labour shortage persists, and wages are likely to rise 8.4% this y...

  • 05-May – BNM is likely to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • BoJ minutes to shed light on Kiuchi’s proposal • New Zealand – Unemployment rate likely fell to 5.5% • US – Before payrolls, markets likely to listen carefully to Chair Yellen • Market focus • BNM is likely to keep the poli...

  • 04-May – Not too early or late, just right for RBA - Updated Sun May 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Real GDP growth likely remained weak in Q1-2015 • Philippines – Inflation may moderate further on lower food inflation • US – Services to do most of heavy lifting in Q2 • Market focus • RBA will likely ease agai...

  • 01-May – A reality check for EUR rates - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have picked up slightly in April • Singapore – PMI likely contracted for a fifth consecutive month • Euro area – The next two weeks are key for Greece • Market focus • Sudden steepening i...

  • Thailand – BoT makes another surprise rate cut - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unexpectedly cut its policy rate again by 25bps to 1.50% at today’s meeting. We had expected it to keep the rate on hold. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-2 to cut the rate, aiming to boost the economy a...



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29-May – Korea – Mixed data and policy...

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation may have picked up in April • China – Manufacturing sector likely continued to face difficulty • Brazil – BCB likely to keep 50bps tightening pace in 3 June meeting • Market focus • Korea’s upcoming economic data releases are likely to be...

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