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  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • Asia data previews – 3-10 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 3, 2015

    BoJ, RBA and RBI are likely to keep policy rates unchanged but ease further in Q2 • We also expect BoK to keep policy rates on hold for now and act on future data movements • China’s inflation and credit growth could ease, allowing room for furthe...

  • 02-Apr – India – A pause before easing - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain cash rate at 2.25% in a close call • Malaysia – We expect lacklustre export growth for February • Philippines – Inflation likely eased in March • Market focus • RBI likely to keep repo rat...

  • 01-Dec – RBI likely to acknowledge easing inflation - Updated Sun November 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to reiterate a ‘period of stability in interest rates’ • South Korea – CPI inflation likely continued to fall in November • Malaysia – We revise up USD-MYR forecasts after the OPEC meeting • Market fo...

  • Asia data previews – 28 Nov-5 Dec - Updated Fri November 28, 2014

    China’s manufacturing PMI is likely to fall to 50.6 in November on fading growth momentum • Inflation likely spiked in Indonesia on subsidised fuel price hikes but remained subdued in Thailand • We expect the RBA to maintain its neutral stance; we...

  • 13-Oct – MAS to stay on hold, despite currency wars - Updated Sun October 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – September’s commodity prices may have slowed inflation • Euro area – Industrial production likely contracted in August • UK – Inflation pressures remain muted • Market focus • We expect the MAS to maintain its sta...

  • 10-Oct – China’s strong September surplus - Updated Thu October 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Moderating CPI should be in line with the RBI’s target • Singapore – GDP growth to improve modestly • Canada – Record drop in private payrolls likely reversed in September • Market focus • Export growth adds to reco...

  • 09-Oct – FOMC: Considerably cautious - Updated Wed October 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Robust export growth likely to continue • China – Credit growth remains in low gear • India – Industrial production likely to remain weak • Market focus • Fed Minutes had a dovish undertone, revealing worries ...

  • 18-Jun – More scope for RBI intervention - Updated Tue June 17, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q1 GDP growth likely rose to 1.1% q/q • Philippines – BSP likely to keep rates steady at its June meeting • Switzerland – SNB expected to stay the course • Market focus • The RBI has intervened substant...

  • 09-May – We revise down our USD-MXN forecasts - Updated Thu May 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – Polling ends next week; markets await exit poll predictions • Japan – March current account likely remained positive • Malaysia – Industrial production growth was likely slower in March • Market focus • Banxico ...

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