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  • 11-Dec – Once bitten, twice shy - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – IIP to turn negative, CPI remains sticky • Indonesia – We expect BI to hike rates at the December meeting • South Korea – BoK is likely to keep its policy rate at 2.5% • Market focus • Cumulative upside data surpris...

  • 10-Dec – BI to hike rates; status quo for rest of Asia - Updated Mon December 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely edged up to 5.8% in November • India – Opposition gains in state elections • Malaysia – Industrial production growth likely picked up in October • Market focus • We expect Bank Indonesia...

  • Asia macro – Time for a ‘reality check’ - Updated Wed August 28, 2013

    • Talk of Asia being in a 1997-98-style crisis dramatically overstates the risks • Fundamental indicators actually suggest a pick-up, not a slowdown in H2-2013 growth • India’s external situation is not as precarious as it was in 1991 • AXJ curr...

  • 23-Jul – India: Liquidity squeeze to bite later - Updated Mon July 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Likely to post the first monthly trade surplus since June 2012 • Australia – Inflation likely higher but still benign, at 2.8% y/y in Q2-2013 • Euro area – Advance PMIs expected to show signs of stabilising • Market...

  • 14-Dec-12 – Top FX trades for 2013 - Updated Thu December 13, 2012

    Key events and data • India – RBI likely to wait for inflation to decline • Japan – The LDP looks set to return to power • Singapore – Marginal improvements expected for November NODX • Market focus • We expect a stronger and volatile H1-2013...

  • 06-Dec-2012 – We expect a debt slope not a debt cliff - Updated Wed December 5, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Government wins the vote on FDI in multi-brand retail • Malaysia – October likely to have seen a consolidation • Taiwan – Exports likely to have risen on year-end holiday demand • Market focus • The fiscal slope is...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 04-Oct-12 – INR – Fundamentals to lag new reforms - Updated Wed October 3, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Divergence between export and import growth continues • Philippines – Inflationary pressures ahead • Taiwan – Consumer price inflation likely stayed elevated in September • Market focus • Volley of new Indian pol...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.