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  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • Indonesia – A non-expansionary budget for 2014 - Updated Mon October 28, 2013

    Parliament passed a non-expansionary budget for 2014, with a deficit target of 1.7% of nominal GDP • We maintain our forecast of a deficit of 1.5% of nominal GDP • Net supply target is IDR 205tn, or 12% lower than in 2013; stay Overweight duration...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • IDR bonds – Shift to Underweight duration - Updated Thu May 23, 2013

    The parliament is expected to finalise the 2013 revised budget in June • We see an increased likelihood that the government will hike fuel prices by 44% and diesel prices by 22% • Shift to Underweight duration on IDR bonds on rate-hike expectation...

  • 20-Mar – THB, PHP local markets to outperform - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan –Trade deficit likely continued in February • UK – Retail sales may have crept up in February, but remain fragile • US – The FOMC is expected to sit tight • Market focus • SCTF and SC FIRST suggest that positioning ...

  • Indonesia – The current account dilemma - Updated Thu January 10, 2013

    • We expect the C/A deficit to shrink to USD 8bn in 2013 from USD 21.5bn in 2012 on higher exports • We lower our short-term FX weighting on the IDR to Underweight; maintain medium-term Overweight • Stay Neutral duration and shift to Underweight ...

  • 25-Jun-12 – Moody’s ups the heat on Europe - Updated Sun June 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth • Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds • Market focus • The Moody’s...

  • 14-June-12 – Relative value in Asian local markets - Updated Wed June 13, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – No expected change in BoJ’s policy rate and asset purchases • Philippines – April should show healthy growth in remittances • United States – Headline weakness takes time to hit the core • Market focus • Investors s...

  • 13-June-12 – Firmer ground for the RBI to cut rates - Updated Tue June 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2012 • Euro area – Chancellor Merkel to outline her stance ahead of the G20 meeting • US – We forecast weaker-than-consensus May retail sales • Market foc...



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01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatility should support carry currencies near-term...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.