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  • Indonesia – President Jokowi’s first challenges - Updated Tue November 11, 2014

    • Hiking fuel prices and dealing with a fragmented parliament are among Jokowi’s first challenges • We revise our inflation, BI rate, and GDP growth forecasts to reflect expected fuel-price hikes in Q4-2014 • Rates market is largely pricing in a f...

  • 05-May – US economic cross-currents - Updated Sun May 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA expected to maintain ‘a period of stable rates’ • Philippines – Inflation likely remained stable in April • US – ISM to indicate steady, but unspectacular, underlying growth • Market focus • In April, US pa...

  • 01-May – TRYing to find value in carry and vol - Updated Wed April 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Stable inflation, a positive trade surplus expected • Japan – March jobless rate likely edged higher on new graduates • US – April payrolls to be more of the same: no break-out • Market focus • FX volatility re...

  • 30-Apr – QE tapering firmly on auto pilot - Updated Tue April 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Weak manufacturing recovery continues • South Korea – New product lines boost exports • Thailand – Inflation is on the rise • Market focus • FOMC set to taper by USD 10bn; statement unlikely to bring material new ...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • Indonesia – A non-expansionary budget for 2014 - Updated Mon October 28, 2013

    Parliament passed a non-expansionary budget for 2014, with a deficit target of 1.7% of nominal GDP • We maintain our forecast of a deficit of 1.5% of nominal GDP • Net supply target is IDR 205tn, or 12% lower than in 2013; stay Overweight duration...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

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