• We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover
• New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB
• We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...
The Asia macro picture suggests a slightly better performance in 2013 than 2012 on the whole
• We expect soft US demand in Q1-2013; the worst fears of fiscal contraction have been avoided
• FX implications: The pick-up in China’s IP cycle suppor...
Sluggish export momentum could persist in the months ahead
• Inflation outlook is benign for rest of 2012, but watch out for local food-price spike in 2013
• Heatmap generates moderately bullish signal for USD vs. HKD, KRW and SGD; bearish for U...
Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – Base effect to prop up otherwise lacklustre production
• Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed thanks to export growth
• Hong Kong – Gauging the strength of external headwinds
• Market focus
• The Moody’s...
Market is likely to downplay any pick-up in exports and production in Q2-2012
• China’s slowdown and renewed recession risk in Europe are the over-riding concerns
• We introduce short-term fundamental signals for Asian currencies, based on our Hea...
Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – April industrial production likely rebounded
• United States – Durable goods orders likely recovered in April
• Brazil – BRL: Be careful what you wish for
• China’s State Council’s statement signals ...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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