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  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • Philippines – Strong rebound in GDP growth - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    GDP growth accelerated to 6.9% y/y in Q4-2014 from 5.3% in Q3; q/q SA growth was 2.5% • We expect robust GDP growth to continue throughout 2015, with risks to the upside • USD-PHP is supported by positive fundamentals, and could continue to outper...

  • Cross-currents – Relative value in Asia [Correction] - Updated Fri January 9, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 9 January 2015. On page 12, amends CNH forecasts. • AXJ currencies were resilient in 2014 – good for investors but not so favourable for AXJ exporters • The oil-price slide will help external imbalances, but furth...

  • Philippines – Growth improved in Q2 - Updated Thu August 28, 2014

    GDP growth accelerated to 6.4% y/y in Q2 from 5.6% in Q1; a 1.9% q/q seasonally adjusted increase • Better external demand helped; manufacturing and services were buoyant • We maintain our short- and medium-term Neutral FX weighting on the PHP due...

  • Philippines – Promising prospects; food is a risk - Updated Fri May 23, 2014

    We upgrade our 2014 growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%; Q1 growth likely to come in at 6.5% y/y • Growth will likely be supported by the robust domestic sector and improving external outlook • With El Niño looming, food inflation is likely to be th...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...

  • SCTF – Bullish flow signal for PHP - Updated Fri February 21, 2014

    • In January, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; large USD buyers vs. IDR, TWD, CNH • Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and CNY; buyers of USD vs. CNH, TWD and PHP • Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR and ...

  • Asian FX PCA – RV in focus on mixed global IP cycle - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle • Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off • Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...

  • Philippines – Remittances get an external boost - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We expect further remittance growth on a recovery in global growth and post-typhoon reconstruction • Our models therefore estimate c.2.0-2.5% more support in 2014 than in 2013 • We expect remittance growth to remain positive for GDP growth, curren...

  • Asian FX PCA – AXJ to rally in Q4 on growth - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4 • We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies • We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...



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