Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call
• USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility
• We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...
GDP growth accelerated to 6.9% y/y in Q4-2014 from 5.3% in Q3; q/q SA growth was 2.5%
• We expect robust GDP growth to continue throughout 2015, with risks to the upside
• USD-PHP is supported by positive fundamentals, and could continue to outper...
This supersedes the version dated 9 January 2015. On page 12, amends CNH forecasts.
• AXJ currencies were resilient in 2014 – good for investors but not so favourable for AXJ exporters
• The oil-price slide will help external imbalances, but furth...
GDP growth accelerated to 6.4% y/y in Q2 from 5.6% in Q1; a 1.9% q/q seasonally adjusted increase
• Better external demand helped; manufacturing and services were buoyant
• We maintain our short- and medium-term Neutral FX weighting on the PHP due...
We upgrade our 2014 growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%; Q1 growth likely to come in at 6.5% y/y
• Growth will likely be supported by the robust domestic sector and improving external outlook
• With El Niño looming, food inflation is likely to be th...
• Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD
• Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB
• Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...
• In January, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; large USD buyers vs. IDR, TWD, CNH
• Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. INR and CNY; buyers of USD vs. CNH, TWD and PHP
• Short USD positioning is large vs. KRW, INR and ...
We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; rise in US IP cycle is countered by the fall in China’s IP cycle
• Indonesia’s exports and trade balance have improved substantially, in contrast with recent IDR sell-off
• Widening MYR-USD rates spread shoul...
We expect further remittance growth on a recovery in global growth and post-typhoon reconstruction
• Our models therefore estimate c.2.0-2.5% more support in 2014 than in 2013
• We expect remittance growth to remain positive for GDP growth, curren...
We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4
• We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies
• We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...
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